HSBT

Participants,

It’s come down to the two teams representing their respective conferences.  After 2 weeks of fanfare, controversy, dialogue and analysis, the game will finally be played this Sunday evening.  That extra week of prep (it hasn’t always been 2 weeks between the conference championship games and the Super Bowl) has allowed the Offices of the NFL to further provide you with in-depth analysis and a prediction of the actual game score!

If you’re a bettor, your best chance of winning this Sunday will be the coin flip.  50/50 odds, which must frustrate Vegas to no end.  After that, you’re on your own for wagering.

Let’s get into the analysis and predictions:

When Kansas City has the Ball
Do you dare bet against Patrick Mahomes?  He’s magical at times and will need to be fleet of feet to avoid getting sacked by the 49er’s terrific DE duo – Nick Bosa and Chase Young.  Will angry RB Isiah Pacheco go on a tear?  Will the pressure of the Big Game be too much for rookie WR Rashee Rice?  Will TE Kelce stay focused with that Swift distraction?  And, will her private jet make it in time for kickoff after her concert in Tokyo?

Look for a classic battle in the trenches, too.  The Chiefs are maybe 1 offensive weapon away from dominating this game.

When the 49ers have the Ball
So many weapons and so many ways they use them to be effective.  McCaffrey, Deebo, Aiyuk and Kittle.  Will the pressure of the SB be too much for QB Brock?  He’s been Purdy special in the playoffs so far.  Can the Chiefs D be opportunistic and get 1 or 2 key takeaways?  Can anyone stop RB McCaffrey?  Nobody has yet.

The 49ers have unfinished business to take care of in their SB loss to the Chiefs 4 years ago, when Kansas City erupted for 21 points in the 4^th quarter to win, 31-20.

A rookie kicker vs. one of the best in the business.  Will it be the difference?  Kickers have a way of doing that in big games – just ask the Bills fans.  Ouch.

In the longest game in Super Bowl history, the 49ers win in a shootout.  Wait, that’s hockey or soccer.

San Francisco 34, Kansas City 31
The game ends tied, 24-24.  After 34 minutes of overtime, rookie K Moody makes the 47-yarder as Taylor Swift album sales plummet

Your SB picks are due no later than 6:30pm EST this Sunday.  The largest comeback to win the HSBT is 356 points.

• Rookie Ice Cold will need to set a new comeback record of 358 points to capture the trophy. His game score prediction should be interesting
• Pete the Terp has an even higher mountain to climb. 49er’s 70, Chiefs 13?
• Greg the Great has a sizeable mountain to climb, but watch out for him, even though he has picked only 4 of 12 game winners correctly so far
• There is a 3-way logjam with Buffalo Bill, Comeback and HenricoFiveOh, with only 12 points separating them. Edge to HenricoFiveOh who has the record for points in a SB game with 684
• 2024 Winner is sitting comfortably in 2^nd place and has the 49er’s as his Super Bowl Bonus pick. With those added 100 points, he is a scant 82 points behind the current leader
• JTB leads the pack and is looking for trophy #2. The pressure is on for the top point getter since January 21

Picks are due via the website no later than 6:30pm EST.  Real-time scoring updates and HSBT results will be available throughout the game and Slack remains available (with a special 1-day free trial) for those interested in some smack talk.  Final menus are being carefully planned to be sure you are nutritiously fed during the game.  Those items include, nachos, chicken wings, assorted dips and chips, sub sandwiches, BBQ and plenty of adult beverages.

An email announcing the victor will be sent out immediately after the game.

Enjoy and be careful with those picks!

Until then I remain,
The Commish

Participants,

We certainly had 2 unexpected finishes in yesterday’s conference championship games.  And a big day for one HSBT participant, too.  Let’s get right into the details:

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Kansas City Chiefs 17, Balti-less Ravens 10
This was supposed to be the marquis game of the day, featuring 2 of the top QB’s in the league and 2 of the top D’s in the league.

The Chiefs came out early with a score that defined the tempo for the rest of the day.  Their D bottled up Ravens QB Jackson and he was certainly less than Lamar-velous.  A big letdown.  And rookie WR Zay Flowers did not help the cause, with a key fumble in the end zone on what should have been the game-tying score in the 4^th quarter.  When the highlight of the day is your QB completing a pass to himself, then you have some issues.

Chiefs TE Travis Swift Kelce dominated the supposedly tough Raven D, with 11 catches and a TD.

HSBT Update
JTB leads the way with 165 points, while Ice Cold posts his 2^nd goose-egg of the playoffs.

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
San Francisco 49ers 34, Detroit Lions 31
The way the Lions played in the first half, it was clear they would be making a Trip to the Strip in 2 weeks.  Instead, they opted for a trip back to Motown.  Talk about blowing a 24-7 halftime lead!  The 49ers in the first half looked like the team that barely beat the Packers last weekend and could get nothing going on offense.

The second half was a total reversal of fortunes.  The 49ers capitalized on a few opportunities (not to mention the last 2 fourth down tries by Detroit that ended up short and gave the ball to the 49ers deep in the Lions end) and QB Brock looked Purdy good on a few very key scrambles late in the game.

Back to the drawing board for Lions Head Coach Dan Gamble.

HSBT Update
Comeback Kid returns to his winning way with 218 points, while Pete the Terp (obviously very disappointed by his Ravens loss earlier in the day) garners his 1^st goose-egg of the playoffs.

HSBT Standings (with 1 very large game to go):

• JTB – 777 points (can he hold on for his 2^nd trophy?)
• 2024 Winner – 595 points (and is the only Participant with a shot at the 100-point Super Bowl Bonus)
• HenricoFiveOh – 567 points (starting to make some noise)
• Comeback Kid – 561 points (does he have enough gas in the tank to make another run?)
• Buffalo Bill – 555 points (it’s been a “few” years since his last trophy victory; will this be the year?)
• Greg the Great – 489 points (will need another wild score prediction to have a shot at his 7^th trophy)
• Ice Cold – 419 points (welcome to the pressure cooker!)
• Pete the Terp – 388 points (may even be out of the running for the bronze chicken wing award)

The league’s expert analysis, advice and predictions for the Super Bowl will be forthcoming late next week, as you each get some additional time to determine your predictions!

Until then I remain,

The Commish

Participants,

We have come down to the last 4 teams, with the winners of Sunday’s games in line for a Trip to the Strip and Super Bowl 58!  The Offices of The Commissioner of the NFL have been simulating models all week in preparation for these 2 games and offer you the best, most accurate predictions available!  So, here we go:

#3 Kansas City Chiefs (13-6) @ #1 Baltimore Ravens (14-4)
This shapes up to be a great game with 2 of the best QB’s in the league.  The slightly-favored Ravens feature all-world QB Lamar-velous Jackson, while the Chiefs counter with Mahomes, the Bills killer.  Both teams feature terrific D’s, but the edge here goes to the Ravens.

Several key injuries will hamper the Chiefs and the Ravens get back their All-Pro TE just in time.

Too many commercials, too many distractions and too much Taylor, plus an inconsistent offense will hamper the Chiefs.

Baltimore 33, Kansas City 20
Another 100-yard + rushing performance by the Ravens QB and 2 Raven D picks

#3 Detroit Lions (14-5) @ #1 San Francisco 49ers (13-5)
The weather forecast does not call for a deluge, so a drier surface will be in play for the second Sunday game.  Can the Lions win another one on the road?  They were 6-3 during the regular season.  They have a balanced offense and an opportunistic defense.  They are clear underdogs (7.0 points) and face their sternest test of the season.

The 49ers have all but forgotten that weak showing against the Pack last Saturday night and look to get everything back in high gear.  It looks like their terrific multi-purpose WR (or is he a RB?) Tyshun Raequan Samuel will be back.  Oh, yeah, that’s Deebo’s given name.  QB Brock is looking forward to a Purdy good effort, or least a better one than last weekend.  Add RB McCaffrey, TE Kittle and WR Aiyuk and the offense is loaded.

2 stellar defenses, but the 49ers are much more explosive on offense.

San Francisco 31, Detroit 24
Gotta love the home field advantage

Everyone has been doing a great job in getting their picks submitted on time.  So as a reminder, your picks for BOTH games are to be submitted via the website no later than 3:00pm EST this Sunday.

I’ve got my menu already planned (for some reason it does not include a lot of healthy options) and the beverage options do not include Pepsi.  Have fun watching the games!  Live scoring will be available during each game (just click on the “Standings” tab at the top of our homepage.)  And don’t be a Slacker – get involved with the fun smack on Slack!  Greg the Great can get you set up!

I’ll publish our customary post-game follow-up early next week.

Until then I remain,
The Commish

Participants,

What a weekend of playoff football!  With 3 of the 4 home teams winning, we now have the lineup and times for the Conference Championship games next Sunday.

Let’s first wrap-up the action from this past weekend and see who is leading the HSBT:

Baltimore Ravens 34, Houston Texans 10
The Ravens QB was Lamar-velous in this one, and their suffocating D didn’t allow the under-manned Texans to do much on offense.  Those 10 penalties, 5 of which were in the 1^st quarter, kept the Texans out of any scoring range.  Texans QB CJ Stroud had about 1.06 seconds to pass after he received the snap from center.

You could tell early on it was going to be a very long day for the team from the Longhorn State.

The victorious Ravens will host their 1^st AFC Championship game since 1971.  Remember Johnny Unitas?

HSBT Update
Greg the Great sets a new Divisional Round single game scoring record with 237 points, breaking Ben the Butler’s 2012 total of 205 points. On the opposite end of the scoring, Buffalo Bill posts his 1^st goose-egg of the playoffs.

San Francisco 49ers 24, Green Bay Packing It Up 21
Let it rain, and it did all game.  2 rookie kickers.  SF QB Brock was not very Purdy in this narrow victory, looking more like Mr. Irrelevant (which he was in the 2022 draft).  You gotta Love the gritty performance by Pack QB Jordan and had a missed FG late in game not happened, who knows if the Pack would be playing at least one more game this season.

HSBT Update
HenricoFiveOh leads the way with 89 points.

Detroit Lions 31, Tampa Bay Bucs 23
Lions Head Coach Dan Campbell Gamble loves to play the analytic odds and go for it on 4^th down almost no matter where they are on the field.  It paid off handsomely, and the Lions are headed to the NFC Championship game for the 1^st time in 33 years.  Remember Barry Sanders?

The Bucs and QB Baker couldn’t find the right recipe to pull off the upset.

HSBT Update
JTB leads the way with 81 points, while Greg the Great puts up another goose-egg (his 3^rd of the playoffs)

Kansas City 27, Buffalo Wide Right
No more needs to be said.

HSBT Update
JTB takes the honors with 46 points. Greg the Great with his 4^th goose-egg of the playoffs, repeating his 2022 performance in the Divisional Round Sunday games.  With one missed FG, 4 of the 8 Participants are now out of contention for the 100-point SB Bonus.

With 3 games remaining, here is the HSBT leaderboard:

• JTB – 498 points, and a very commanding lead
• 2024 Winner – 365 points, and making an early move towards another trophy!
• HenricoFiveOh – 364 points, and in a “distant” 3rd place
• Pete the Terp – 352 points, and looking like a sleeper this year
• Greg the Great – 328 points, with 72% of those points in 1 game
• Comeback Kid – 301 points, and slipping (better look for trophy engravers and a mailing container)
• Buffalo Bill – 285 points, and needs to reducing his game variance
• Ice Cold – 255 points, and the pressure of his rookie season will be looming large going forward

Looking forward, The Commish will be sending his customary Championship weekend games analysis and predictions later in the week.

Until the I remain,
The Commish

Participants,

After 6 great games last weekend, we now enter the Divisional Round games, where the scores get closer and the potential for HSBT points get higher!  There are 4 games on tap this weekend and all are shaping up to be full of excitement and surprises.  The weather could still be a factor in 2 games and we will keep a watchful eye on any brewing storms (not that it could come into play in Buffalo).

Picks, including your Super Bowl Bonus pick, are all due no later than 4:30pm EST this Saturday.

#4 Houston Oilers Texans @ #1 Baltimore (or Less) Ravens
Will the Texans remain hot and score more than 40 points again, this time against another highly-rated D?  Will NFL MVP odds-on favorite Lamar Jackson strut his stuff and lead the highly favored Ravens to the AFC Championship game?  So many more questions and so few answers.

CJ Stroud is definitely exciting to watch and certainly has shown poise rarely seen in a rookie QB.  Do you want him under center if you are down by 2 with under 2 minutes to go?  Maybe.  And how about the Ravens QB?  You do want him in this situation.  This will be the difference in this game, where the Texans should cover the spread and make the game a lot closer than fans are expecting.  The Ravens starting group has not played in 3 weeks, so a little rust is to be expected early on.

Texans 27, Ravens 31
Lamar does take it in for the game winning TD late in the 4^th quarter

#7 Green Bay Packers @ #1 San Francisco 49ers
Midway through the season who thought the Pack would be playing football now?  And, they could be the hottest team in the NFC!  After plastering the Cowboys last weekend, they are riding an emotional high that might carry over in their role Saturday night as a 9.5 point underdog.  The 49ers are loaded.  Flat out.  Their offense features Mr. Irrelevant at QB, the world’s best RB, a top-notch TE and at least 2 WR’s that can go the distance at any moment.  Their D is stifling, too.

No chance for the Pack in this one, right?  The first upset of the weekend.

Packers 30, 49ers 27
Gotta Love how Packer QB Jordan tosses the game-winning TD late in the 4^th quarter

#4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ #3 Detroit Lions
No, the Lions aren’t on because it’s Thanksgiving Day.  Wow!

Is Baker cooking up another upset recipe?  Will the Lions have to wait 32 more years before winning their next playoff game?  The Bucs literally destroyed the Philadelphia Pigeons last week and the Lions looked like the real deal in defeating the Rams in a very close one.

Hard to believe the Bucs have much juice left to pull off another victory.  The Lions seem to be destined this year.  Is SB 58 on their minds?

Lions 30, Bucs 20
With a new stadium decibel record of 115

#3 Kansas City Swifties @ #2 Buffalo Bills
The big question here is “when will Taylor Swift’s private jet land in Buffalo?”  On the surface (hopefully not covered in snow) this should be the closest and best game of the weekend.  Blizzard conditions are projected to wane by Friday, so fans have an extra day to locate their seat and dig out.

Speaking of dig, Bills star WR Stefon will need to come up huge in this one (like he did last weekend).  Hopefully injuries do not become a major factor, as they did last week.  With their new interim OC, Joe Brady, the Bills are 6-0.  Chief QB Mahomes is playing his first-ever playoff game on the road (not including neutral site games).

Can’t imagine a better way to end the weekend.

Chiefs 31, Bills 34
Josh does it again!!

NOTE:  Your picks for all 4 games this weekend are to be submitted no later than 4:30pm EST.  And – your Super Bowl Bonus Pick also needs to be submitted at the same time.  Everyone was really good about this last week, so keep it up!

I’m planning to hunker down and enjoy 4 great games this weekend.  Hopefully you will be doing the same.

Until then, I remain
The Commish