Participants,

I know you’re eager to get the official analysis from the offices of the Commissioner of the NFL before you make your picks for the games this Sunday.  Here we go:

NY Jets @ Indianapolis Colts (3:00pm EST kickoff)
The Colts are favored by 8 points, most of which are due to having the dome field advantage.  The spread has increased during the week (started out as 7-1/2 on Monday).

When the Jets are on Offense
The Colts look pretty strong and their under-rated defense should dominate if they can stop the Jet RB’s with running plays up the middle.  However, this Shonn Green fellow has had 2 consecutive 100+ yard games against 2 pretty good run defenses and Thomas Jones is making key plays when needed (like that 4th down and 1 run at the end of last week’s game to seal the deal).  Mark Sanchez has played under control during the playoffs and has zero turnovers.  Braylon Edwards even held on to a few passes that hit him in the numbers last week…

The key matchup is the Jet’s line, which has been superb in run blocking and pass protection, against the Colts DE’s Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis (23 sacks during the regular season).
Edge – Colts

When the Colts are on Offense
What a great matchup this will be!!  The Jets D has multiple blitz approaches and will most likely add a few new wrinkles on Sunday to try to keep Peyton Manning (maybe the best passer against the blitz in the history of the NFL) from taking advantage of some one-on-one situations.  He has a huge arsenal of WR’s – most notably Reggie Wayne (who will most likely face up against Jet CB Darrelle Revis, in another great matchup).  Expect Peyton to go long several times, especially in the 1st half.  The Colts have no running game to speak of, so look for 40+ passes from Peyton on Sunday.  With WR targets like Wayne, Dallas Clark, Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie, plus Joseph Addai and Donald Brown coming out of the backfield, it will be tough to cover everyone.  That being said, we had those same thoughts last week when the Jets rolled into San Diego…
Edge – Jets

Final Summary
Home in the dome means a lot for the Colts as they lost only once there during the regular season – to the Jets…  The fan noise will be deafening but will subside late in the 4th quarter as the Jets pick off another Manning pass and punch their ticket to Miami.  Turnovers will determine the final outcome.  So much for the COLTS (Count On Losing This Sunday).
NY Jets 20, Indianapolis Colts 17

Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints (6:40pm EST kickoff)
A weak 3.5 point spread for the Saints.  You gotta believe all the pressure is on New Orleans, especially playing against one of the greatest QB’s of all time – Brett Favre.

When the Vikings are on Offense
A huge question will be whether or not RB Adrian Peterson can get going.  If he does early and Chester Taylor remains effective, then the passing lanes will open.  He’s been very quiet the last few weeks…  The Viking WR’s are underrated, but Sidney Rice is good to go (as evidenced by his 3 TD catches last week).  How good is the Saints D?  Not really sure, as all they had to do during the regular season was stop the opponent once and the Saints would win the game.  Brett will be sure they are tested often and early.  It seems like the Viking OL can hold off the Saints D long enough to allow Favre to find some open receivers.  The Saints will continue to miss CB Malcolm Jenkins.
Edge – Vikings

When the Saints are on Offense
Well, New Orleans was certainly impressive during the regular season and last week against the 8th Grade Sister’s of the Weak Middle School D that Arizona brought to Nawlins’.  A lot of weapons not only at WR and RB, but also in the Special Teams area.  Now that a real D is on town, things could change for Drew and Company.  Will the Saints OL be able to handle the Vikings defensive line and DE Jared Allen.  And that beef in the middle, the Williams boys (Pat and Kevin, weighing in at a svelte 628 combined pounds), should make life a little tougher for Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas.  Will TE Shockey, who has not practiced all week, be healthy enough to contribute?  He’s a difference maker when healthy…  Ditto for the Vikes CB Antoine Winfield, who will need to be in top form to contain the likes of Marques Colston, Robert Meachem and Devery Henderson.
Edge – Saints

Final Summary
Home in the dome means a lot, but the Vikes also play in one.  A couple big plays in the 3rd quarter will be the deciding factor in a lower scoring game than predicted.  With so much at stake, coupled with the pressure of a visit to Miami, look for Brett Favre to make the play of the day for the Vikes upset victory.  When is Mardis Gras?
Minnesota 27, New Orleans 24

WOW – that’s 2 road team upset victories!!  The last time that happened was 1998, when Green Bay (guess who was their QB??) beat the 49’ers and the Broncos beat the Steelers.

Good luck to all and both games should be great!

~~ The Commish