Game Analysis

You have all been diligently waiting for this post, so here we go.  I’m sure this will directly influence your pick for tomorrow’s BIG GAME (Pete the Terp – you can resubmit your pick if you would like, as long as it is posted by 6:00pm on 2.7).

Injury Report
Given the extensive list of players on both teams official injury report, you could call this the “Bench Bowl.”  However, these injury reports are all a ploy to hopefully throw off the other team, as well as the Vegas odds-makers.  Unless you just had a leg amputated, you will find all the “injured” players in uniform and ready to go at 6:30pm tomorrow.

The biggest injury question seems to surround Colts DE Dwight Freeney, who reportedly has torn ligaments in his right ankle.  Expect him to start and see how it feels in a real simulation.  He most likely will be “iffy” the entire evening and may be limited to certain Saint passing situations.

On the Saints side, 2 injured players should be playing and it could be a game changer if they are both healthy and productive – TE Jeremy Shockey and CB Malcolm Jenkins.  Shockey looked a wounded Russell Crowe from Master and Commander in the NFC Championship game 2 weeks ago.  Jenkins, on the other hand, has not played in the playoffs, but was a starter all season.  If he’s 100%, Manning will have a bigger challenge finding open WR’s.

When the Colts are on Offense
Peyton will need enough time and protection to find his WR’s Wayne (injured on Friday in practice), Garcon and Collie.  If he’s forced out of the pocket (which the Jets and Ravens were unable to do in the Oil Dome), the Saint LB’s are fast and may end up with several sacks.  The running game may not be very effective, as the Saints held the Vikings RB’s pretty much in check in the Cajun Dome 2 weeks ago.  Look for a 80-20 mix in pass vs. run.  Saint S Darren Sharper will be a key one to watch all afternoon.  But can he keep up with all those play changes at the line of scrimmage?
Edge – Saints, by half a whisker…

When the Saints are on Offense
You just never know when they are going to explode, do you?  They seem to have more weapons than the Taliban in Afghanistan.  But don’t underestimate the Colts D.  They’ve already contained 2 pretty good running games in the playoffs, but have not encountered a passing game even remotely close to the Saints (unless you’re a huge Joe Flacco fan…).  The Saints have 3 effective, but very different RB’s that will see rotating time to mix up the Colts D.  A real big question will be how the Colt DB’s will handle the huge Saints WR’s – Colston, Henderson and Meachem.  If Shockey is effective, then the Colts safeties will be in for a long night in Miami.  As long as Brees has time (see above reference to Freeney) to find his guys, especially Reggie Bush coming out of the backfield, this game could get out of hand before The Who takes stage.
Edge – Saints, by the other half of the whisker…

Special Teams
Reggie Bush tore up the Cardinals and was non-existent in the Viking game.  Which Reggie will show up Sunday night?  The Colts are decent, but not as explosive as the Saints on KR’s.  Punters will be very important early on as both teams work for field position.  As for kickers, can you remember a playoff year with worse FG results?
Edge – Neither (out of whiskers…)

Prediction
The Colts are 5-point favorites, but the Saints are destiny’s darlings this year.  Hard to say that a team with only 4 playoff wins in it’s 43 year history will win.  Peyton has already has his Super Bowl ring, now it’s the other Payton’s turn to hoist the Lombardi Trophy and get his.  And we’re not talking about Walter…

Participant Predictions
Pete the Terp – how’s the blood pressure holding up?  Better check the rearview mirror down the home stretch…

Buffalo Bill and Greg the Great – licking their chops, especially since they are in line for the 100-point bonus if the Colts can pull it off.  Sorry, boys.

Ben the Butler – maybe the silent victor this year?  Only a 187-point gap to make up…  Hello, Seabiscuit?

Comeback Kid – will the comeback be complete after XLIV?  A 320-point deficit is daunting, however.  I sense a lopsided pick for someone…

Henrico FiveOh – can’t wait to get his pick; can he make up a 487-point deficit and capture a record 6th trophy?  Am I smelling Saints 63, Colts 10???  Or is it Colts 55, Saints 3???

2010 Winner – Here we go again and trophy #4 in hand shortly…
 

~~ The Commish