As you know, THE Commish has been out of the office this week, enjoying a little ski vacation in cold (-33 one morning) Colorado with some friends, so I’m just getting back with you as you prepare your picks for the big game tonight.  However, I see that a very confident Ben the Butler has already submitted his…

Mathematically speaking, all participants (well, it’s gonna be an uphill climb for the 3 at the bottom…) are still in the hunt for the HSBT, so your picks later today are most important.

Only 3 participants (Henrico FiveOh, Ben the Butler and 2011 Winner) have a shot at the 100-point bonus – with a Steeler win.

The point spread is 2.5 points in favor of the Cheeseheads, but being the Vegas favorite does not guarantee success on the field, as evidenced most recently in last year’s SB, when the 5-p0int underdog Saints walloped the Colts, 31-17.

So here is the official analysis and game prediction for tonight’s culmination of the 2010 season:

Pittsburgh Offense vs. Green Bay D
The Steeler O line is banged up and was not a strength even when healthy this year.  Add the injury to All-Pro rookie C Pouncey and you have Packer LB Matthews and CB Woodson drooling over possible sack opportunities.  But Big Ben is at his best when forced to move outside the pocket and hit those young and elusive WR’s.  As for the Pittsburgh running game, Mendenhall has been a steady contributor who can also catch out of the backfield, plus he’s a great pass protector.  The Packers will send in all kinds of pressure to hopefully keep Mendenhall blocking, so watch for some big runs on draw plays (as they did 2 weeks ago in their victory over the Jets).  The last time these 2 teams played (2009) Big Ben passed for 503 yards and 3 TD’s…

Edge – Pittsburgh, if they can establish the running game early.  Green Bay if they can get to Big Ben early and force a mistake.

Green Bay Offense vs. Pittsburgh D
Will Aaron Rodgers continue like he has in the past 3 games?  The only other #6 seed to win the SB was the Steelers.  If the Packer O line can give Rodgers time to pass he is very effective, and if he has to scramble he is a very effective passer and runner.  Packer RB Starks must produce for a GB victory.  The Steeler D is the best in the business and a healthy Polamalu should be disruptive.  Plus those 4 great LB’s will give the Packer O line some fits.  GB WR’s have been terrific in the playoffs, and should continue to get open if Rodgers has time.  Did I see the Packers added “B. Favre” to their roster as a backup??

Edge – Green Bay, if they can establish the  running game early.  Pittsburgh if they can get to Aaron Rodgers early.

This is going to be a close game and quite possibly the first ever OT game.  Let’s just hope the game lives up to the hype.  Only a few have…

Final Score
Pittsburgh – 27
Green Bay – 27

This should make your picks crystal clear.

As for the winner of the trophy this year, stay tuned on this site for scoring updates throughout the evening.  I think I smell a repeat…

Get the Buffalo wings, pizza, subs, dips, BBQ pork sandwiches and other SB “meals” ready to enjoy!!  Don’t forget the cold beer(s), too.

~~ THE Commish