As we near the end of the 25th anniversary of the HSBT, one has to think back on how this all started.

• One set of rules typed on an Apple II
• Weekly telephone calls to The Englishman’s wife (who served as league auditor) with picks
• U.S. Mail (not email or a website) to communicate the results every week
• And a simple little trophy.

The 4 original participants names were their initials only.  Wild Card Weekend was only 2 games.  The Buffalo Bills were in the playoffs.  Did they wear leather helmets, too?

Now, Super Bowl XLVII is upon us.  Let’s get down to business.

Well, it’s finally come down to 1 final game in the hunt for the 2013 HSBT.  And it’s pretty darn close, with 2013 Winner (is this a prediction already?) holding on to a minuscule lead (74 points) with only 118 points separating the top 4 participants.  Buffalo Bill and Greg the Great are bringing up the rear, with 216 and 221 points, respectively.  And, as of Tuesday (Media Day for the Super Bowl) we already have one pick submitted (Note:  The Commish receives an email when a participant makes his pick via the HSBT website, but does not open it until all picks have been made).  Someone is feeling very confident…

Interestingly, the fanfare and over-abundance of chatter surrounding this year’s Super Bowl has been replaced by the Manti Te’o and Lance Armstrong news, Beyonce’s lip-syncing of the National Anthem, plus a recent deer antler spray accusation against at least 1 Super Bowl player (of course, that would be Ravens retiring MLB Ray Lewis).  Really, can we get focused on the BIG GAME??  So, here we go for those of you who want the most accurate and comprehensive analysis of SB47:

WHAT ARE THE ODDS?
The 49’ers are favored by 4 points, based on Vegas betting (none of those bettors play in the game, however…).

49’er Offense vs. Raven Defense
SF QB Kaepernick has been at the helm for only a few games but has impressed with his running and throwing abilities.  The Ravens have successfully shut down the top 2 QB’s in the AFC (Peyton Manning and Tom Brady) – both on the road – on their march to SB47, with a now-healthy group.  Do the 49’ers have enough weapons?  Randy Moss has proclaimed himself as “the greatest WR of all time” earlier this week.  Hmm..  What happened to Jerry Rice?  Let’s see if he can live up to that billing on Sunday.  Ray Lewis’ 1^st NFL sack was against 49’er Head Coach Jim Harbaugh – will Kaepernick be his last?

Edge – Ravens (plus the emotional vote since it will be Ray Lewis’ last game – finally).

Raven Offense vs. 49’er Defense
The Ravens have been riding the arm of QB Joe Flacco (8 TD’s and no picks in the playoffs), with 3 terrific WR’s making some dazzling plays.  A newly-balanced running game has also come to life with newly-appointed (in mid-December) Offensive Coordinator Jim Caldwell.  The 49’er D focuses on their front 7, who have been banged up a bit (most notably  DE Justin Smith, who triggers the mayhem).  Can the small-ish CB’s handle WR Anquan Boldin?

Edge – maybe the 49’ers and maybe the Ravens

Special Teams
Both teams should have been in last year’s SB, except for final minute blunders by their special teams units.  SF had 2 costly kick return fumbles late in their loss to the NY Football Giants and the Ravens were wide left after a dropped TD pass in their loss at New England.

The 49’ers are shivering in their pants with erratic K, veteran David Akers, while the Ravens depend on a rookie kicker.  On kickoff and punt returns, will the 49’ers make the mental mistakes that doomed them last year?  At least the Ravens don’t have to worry about K Billy Cundiff.

Edge – whoever does not make the critical mistakes.

SUMMARY
This promises to be a good game.  4 of the last 5 SB’s were up for grabs deep into the 4^th Quarter and this one looks to be the same.  Prediction:

San Francisco 38, Baltimore 34 – the offenses get cranking with Kaepernick going wild on the ground and in the air.

Baltimore 28, San Francisco 17 – the Rayvens prevail with a suffocating D

HSBT TROPHY PREDICTION

• Buffalo Bill – won his last trophy 10 years ago, holding on to a 14-point victory after enjoying a 132-point lead going into the Super Bowl.  He’s got a 333-point deficit to make up, so the sledding is going to be uphill – but not impossible.
• Comeback Kid – won his last trophy in 2005.  He’s had a 380-point Super Bowl game, and is only 74 points out of the lead.  Those fingernails are getting shorter…
• Henrico FiveOh – last year’s winner is only 84 points out of 1^st place and dearly wants to win in consecutive years for the 2^nd time (tying the all-time record).  Last year he was 79 points behind the leader and went on to win.  Do I hear him cracking open another victory drink?
• Greg the Great – sits 328 points out of 1^st place right now and has a 420-point effort in the Super Bowl to win (in 1996).  This is goose-egg or bust for him, so look for a very interesting pick.
• Pete the Terp – OK, the pressure is really on, since he’s a big Ravens fan.  And, he’s only 118 points out of 1^st place.  However he’s been a low point accumulator in the SB, with a high of 220 points.  Is he going to bet against his beloved Ravens?  Suppose he does and they win?  Big ouch.
• 2013 Winner – sitting at the top of the heap right now, but with a tiny lead.  In 3 of his 5 HSBT trophy years, he was in the lead at this juncture.

The 2013 HSBT winner is (drum roll, please) – I will let you know around 10pm Sunday night…

Keep checking into the website for the latest score updates and to see how you’re doing on this big weekend!  Good luck to all!

~~ The Commish