Well, here we go on the official start of the 2014 NFL Playoffs and the continuation of the sage advice and expertise of The Commish solely aimed to help you win the Hewes Super Bowl Trophy competition.  The weather is slated to be a factor in 3 games this weekend, in Cincinnati, Philadelphia and Green Bay.

So before you submit your official weekend picks before the start of the first WildCard game, here is the official analysis and predictions for the only source you need to guarantee playoff success:

#5 Kansas City (11-5) at #4 Indianapolis (11-5)
Amazing that the Chiefs went from the league’s worst in 2012 (2-14), to secure a playoff position.  And, they started the season on a tear, starting off 9-0 before their Bye week, before going 5-7 over the last half of the season.  Included in that 2^nd half slump was a home loss to these same Colts in Week 16.  The Chiefs D had it easy the 1^st half of the season, but recent injuries have ravaged them on that side of the ball.  The offense is steady and it doesn’t hurt to have RB Jamaal Charles in your backfield.  Rookie OT sensation Eric Fisher will not play, however.

In Indy, QB Andrew Luck continues to improve, even without favorite WR Reggie Wayne for most of the season.  These Colts did have big wins against several playoff teams, including Seattle, SF, Denver and KC.  While that 6-2 home record looks pretty good, several of those wins were against pretty bad teams.

To get the wild weekend going, those with aspirations of winning the HSBT should be picking the Chiefs in this one.

Kansas City 27, Indianapolis 23 or
Indianapolis 21, Kansas City 20 (Chief QB Alex Smith pretends he’s on the 49’ers)

#6 New Orleans (11-5) at #3 Philadelphia (10-6)
Hello to the first of what will be 3 very cold outdoor games this weekend.  Single digits are forecasted at game time.  The resurgent Eagles have finally found their (this year’s version only?) franchise QB in Nick Foles, who led the NFL in passing this year.  Add RB LeSean McCoy, who led the league in rushing, along with dynamic WR DeSean Jackson and no wonder the Eagles were 7-1 over their last 8 games this season.

Meanwhile down on Bourbon Street, the Saints had mixed results this season, and were 3-5 down the stretch, which included a 1-5 record in their last 6 road games.  Plus, the Saints have never (that’s right – never) won a road playoff record.  Do you dare bet against QB Drew Brees, though?  He won’t have RB Pierre Thomas and that could hurt.

In tundra game #1 of the weekend, you gotta like the Eagles against the dome-less Aints (is that better than being an “aimless don’t?”)

Philadelphia 37, New Orleans 20 or
Philadelphia 26, New Orleans 17 (the ball got lost in the snow)

#6 San Diego (9-7) at #3 Cincinnati (11-5)
Tundra game #2.  More single digit temps.  Fortunately, the Bengals are not playing the Texans in a WildCard game this year, as that is where their season has ended the last 2 years.  Can QB Andy Dalton finally win a playoff game.  Not many QB’s make the playoffs their 1^st 3 years.  But he needs a talented supporting cast, and fortunately for him he has just that.  Plus a D that is under-rated (in spite of the over-rated group of DB’s…).  That 8-0 home record this season is also a plus.

The Chargers lucked into the playoffs by beating the entire 2^nd team of the Chiefs last weekend, and it took a few lucky plays in OT to do that.  Keep one key stat in mind – the team that played the Eagles in their home opener the last 4 years went on to win the Super Bowl.  Guess who played the Eagles in Week2 (and beat them, I might add)?  Yep, that’s right.

Forget the string running to 5 straight and whatever QB has the least bad day will come out on top in this one.

Cincinnati 41, San Diego 26 or
San Diego 27, Cincinnati 17 (Andy Dalton spreads INT’s around like holiday cheer)

#5 San Francisco (12-4) at #4 Green Bay (8-7-1)
Have you ever been to Siberia in the winter?  Predicted -30 wind chill at kickoff.  This will be colder than the 1967 Ice Bowl, when these same Packers defeated the Cowboys on that famous Bart Starr QB sneak behind OG Jerry Kramer.

The 49’ers have to ask themselves if their halftime hydration fluid of choice – 2007 Sonoma Valley Pinot Noir – will freeze before they are able to enjoy it.  Remember last year’s playoff game where QB Colin Kaepernick ran for 180+ yards in a crushing win over these Packers?  Plus watch out for RB Frank as he Gores the banged up and mostly lousy Packer D for several big runs.  Will the win streak improve to 7?

On the other side of the ledger there is hope – QB Aaron Rodgers came back last week from a broken collarbone to break the hearts of the playoff hopeful Bears, in that great “win and in” game in balmy Chicago.  Having WR Randall Cobb back from the IR is also a huge plus.  Hope they don’t have to put up 49 points to win this one, however.

Can you afford to bet against the top-rated playoff QB of all-time?

Green Bay 23, SF 20 or
SF 28, Green Bay 16 (if the ball does not freeze before the National Anthem)

Reminder
Get your picks for all 4 games submitted by 4:30pm EST today.

And – 2014 Winner has told me he’s looking for another trophy year.  Everyone’s going to have to be on their game starting with this weekend.  Even though only about 13% of all the playoff points are earned in the WildCard round, they are still very important.

A Few WildCard Stats and Closing Observations
All-time WildCard point leader, Buffalo Bill (with 2,208 and a nifty 22.5 points per game average) is most likely planning to keep that edge.  He also has the best WildCard record at 61-37.

Will Comeback Kid shatter his WildCard round record of 243 points this year?

Greg the Great has the single-game record of 110 points in the WildCard round.

Baltimore-area resident Pete the Terp does not have to bet against the Ravens this year (he’s picked them to win only 4 of 11 times since he joined in 2007), so he is probably going to be a more prominent contender.

HenricoFiveOh is always in the hunt, as long as he submits his picks on time and avoids the partial score syndrome.

Ben the Butler is back from last year’s IR and is looking for his 1^st trophy and has the 2^nd best WildCard Round record at 14-10 (58.3%).

2014 Winner has the lowest WildCard Round variance at 17.03 points per game.

Stay by the fire and keep warm as we kickoff year 26!  I’ll have my WildCard Weekend Wrap-Up for your reading enjoyment early next week.