Gentlemen,

First – your picks for all 4 weekend games are to be submitted via the website by 4:00pm EST today.  Everyone complied last week and that was great.  The Spam glitch has been fixed on the Commish’s end.  Also – be sure to include your Super Bowl Bonus pick if you’re interested in 100 points…

We have 4 terrific games on tap this weekend, featuring 8 of the top QB’s in the league.  My staff has been working OT this week, as is customary this time of year, as they dig into the numbers to provide you with the best analysis of the games to ensure you’re prepared to make your all-important picks.  Let’s get down to the nitty gritty…

#6 Baltimore Ravens (11-6) @ #1 New England Patriots (12-4)
You gotta feel for Pete the Terp.  He’s a big Ravens fan and seemingly always has a tough time when the Ravens are playing.  If he picks them to win (and again they’re underdogs) and they don’t, then he loses HSBT points in his quest for his first trophy.  If he picks them to lose and they do, well then is he a jinx to the team?  And if he picks them to lose and they win, again he may fall behind in the race for the coveted trophy.  For all the other HSBT participants (sans Ben the Butler), this is never a problem, as they are either Cleveland Browns or Buffalo Bills fans – those teams are rarely (if ever) in the playoffs, so there is no stress in their picks.

The Ravens, while underdogs in this game, have had great success against the Patriots up in Foxboro, having won 2 of the last 3.  Add to that the Ravens 6-5 record in the playoffs vs. the #1 seed and you have the perfect formula for an upset.  But who’s gonna cover Gronk?  This will be the big question that will get answered later today.  The winner of this game is going to SB 49.

With Flacco and the D playing on all 8 cylinders,
Baltimore 26, Patriots 19

Should the game go as planned and the Patriots come up with big plays,
New England 30, Ravens 17

#4 Carolina Panthers (8-8-1) @ #1 Seattle Seahawks (12-4)
We do know that Greg the Great has now successfully (after a 2,400+ mile drive) relocated to Seattle.  That’s a lot of effort just to be a little closer to the local scene and hopefully get an edge on this game.  How can the Panthers, who looked less than great last weekend, win this one?  Earlier in the season they lost at home to the 12th Man team, 13-9 in a real FG-nailbiter.  While this should be a similarly low-scoring affair, the Seahawk D is running on 24 cylinders and should have no problem shutting down Cam Newton.  The Carolina D is no slouch, however, and they are operating with no pressure.  If Marshawn is in less than Beast mode, it could come down to FG’s again.

Living up their stout 8-8-1 record (but on a 5-0 streak) and not being able to run like they did against the Cardinals last weekend,
Seattle 20, Carolina 13

The Carolina D outplays the Seattle D and finally holds on to a 4th quarter lead (which they had each of the last 3 games they played against each other),
Carolina 16, Seattle 15

#3 Dallas Cowboys (13-4) @ #2 Green Bay Packers (12-4)
This should be a dandy on the frozen tundra in Wisconsin.  Tom Landry vs. Vince Lombardi.  Oh, wait – that was 1967 and the winner went on to win the SB.  The Cowboys are 8-0 on the road and the Packers are undefeated at home, marking the first time that has ever happened in the NFL playoffs.  Something has to give.  Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers is undefeated at home in his last 16 games, tossing 36 TD’s and zero picks (that’s right, zero) over 418 passing attempts.  Will a sore calf slow him down?  He’s listed as “probable” for the game, so don’t wait to see backup Matt Flynn any time soon.  Dallas QB Tony Romo can silence a lot of critics with a win and all they have to do is outscore the Packers.  They have the horses to do it with RB DeMarco Murray (led the league in rushing) and WR Dez Bryant (led the league in TD receptions).  But who’s gonna stop the GB offense?

Amazingly, Aaron Rodgers’ calf is OK at game time and he tosses a “few” TD’s to the dynamic duo of Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb over a suspect Cowboy defensive backfield,
Packers 30, Dallas 24 (in OT!)

Dallas controls the clock by running DeMarco Murray 40 times, sacks the lame Aaron Rodgers 5 times, and the temp warms up to Cowboy standards (65 degrees) at kickoff,
Cowboys 38, Green Bay 26 (in regulation…)

#4 Indianapolis Colts (12-5) @ #2 Denver Broncos (12-4)
Peyton Manning, Sr. vs. Peyton Manning, Jr.  A classic QB duel.  Will the torch be passed to Andrew Luck or will his luck run out and the ball be passed for TD’s to the potent corps of Thomas, Thomas and Sanders?  The Broncos have been less than impressive the past few weeks and Peyton has recent numbers that are not Manning-like.  A resurgent running game and an opportunistic D need to be on display at Mile High.  The Colts, although they beat the Bagels last weekend, need to step it up a few notches.  If Bronco TE Julius Thomas is not 100%, it will get interesting.

Orange Crush puts it all together and Peyton gets going again,
Denver 33, Colts 20

The torch is officially passed (in spite of no running game),
Indianapolis 27, Broncos 23

Get all your weekend chores done before 4:00pm and slip into that comfy chair for 4 great games!  History tells us that this weekend generates the most points (31% of the total) for the participants, so be smart in your choices!

~~ The Commish