Participants,

First, an update on DeflateGate.  This is the 3rd time the Patriots have been involved in a scandal.  You all should remember SpyGate a few years ago.  Guilty.  Many of you will not, however, remember SnowGate back in 1982.  Here are the details:  The Fin’s were playing a late-season (aka, December) game in New England.  The score was 0-0 late in the 4th Quarter.  It was snowing and getting worse by the minute.  The Patriots got into FG range and then called for the “snow removal” team to supposedly come out and shovel off the lines that denoted every 5 yards.  Instead, one guy came out with a shovel and cleared only the area where the New England kicker was going try the game-winner.  He made the FG and the Fins’ lost, 3-0.  Guilty.  DeflateGate lives on, but will be resolved shortly after SB49.  Guilty?

Now – we have finally come to the BIG day!  Tomorrow marks the official end of 2 weeks of constant interviews (except with Marshawn Lynch), analysis and predictions by all those so-called “experts.”  Let’s get down to the business of a football game.  It’s shaping up to be a dandy, with the spread currently at 1 point (favoring the Patriots).

Before we get into the analysis and prediction, just a gentle reminder that your game prediction is due by 6:00pm EST on Sunday, Feb 1.  Everyone has been really good about getting scores properly submitted and on-time.  Let’s keep it going!

When the Seahawks Have the Ball
First,  4 turnovers (to repeat their performance against the Packers 2 weeks ago) won’t cut it this time.  Look for a solid dose of Marshawn Lynch (over 1,200 rushing yards and 10+ TD’s the past 4 years – tying a record).  Also look for a more solid dose of 325-lb+ (with added focus on the +) Patriot NT Vince Woolfork plugging the middle like an over-sized you-know-what trying to get flushed down those newfangled toilets that use 3.6 ounces of water…  It just isn’t going anywhere!

So, now QB Russell Wilson will have to begin his read option scrambling a little earlier than he wants to, as the Seattle WR’s will be blanketed by Revis Island and his DB friends.  Look for the Seattle TE’s to have a lot of  looks (notice I said ‘looks,’ not catches).

Thus, it all boils down to Marshawn vs. Vince in the middle.  If Mr. Talkative gets his yards and busts out a few of those 15+ yard dashes, the rest of the offense will click.  If not, look for a lot of 3-and-outs.

Advantage:  New England (by a margin almost as wide as Vince)

When the Patriots Have the Ball
Will this SB appearance for Tom Brady be a win, or will he once again succumb to a better than average D (i.e., the NY Football Giants teams that beat Tom in 2008 and 2012)?  It’s hard to picture another big day for re-born RB LeGarrette Blount, but he will either get 34 carries or 5 carries, depending on how Coach Belichick goes about his business.  The Legion of Doom will be in attendance, but The 12th Man will stay in Seattle.

Assuming that the Patriots won’t be able to run, we now get back to my favorite question (that seemingly does not have an answer) – who will stop Gronk?  At 6-7 and ~260 pounds it will require the services of at least 3 Seahawk defenders.  Which will open up the passing game for the other Patriot receivers.  Which leads me to look past Edelman, LaFell and Amendola.  And stare right into the eyes of this year’s SB MVP – Shane Vereen.  11 catches for 114 yards and 2 TD’s…

Advantage:  New England by a margin as slippery as a sockeye salmon.

Special Teams
During the playoffs, the edge has to go with New England and Julian Edelman.  Also, Patriot K Adam Vinatieri has performed exceptionally well in prior SB’s in the pressure cooker environment.

Game Prediction
Not very often is the spread at 1 the day before the game, so it will be very interesting.  Can Seattle win 2 SB’s in a row?  Will this be Tom Brady’s last appearance in the SB?  Will Russell Wilson win 2 SB’s in his first 3 years in the league?  How is Richard Sherman’s elbow (sprain) and Earl Thomas’ shoulder (dislocation)?  Who is making sure the game balls are properly inflated?

In the first-ever Super Bowl OT game (it’s gonna be a late night…)
Seattle 37 New England 34 (how could Vinatieri miss that 47-yard FG “wide right” to win it with under a minute to go in regulation??  Ouch, and “welcome to club”, says Scott Norwood)

Get a cold brew, a few wings and a beef on weck (courtesy of the Brew Bill’s in East Aurora, NY), settle into that SB chair and get ready!

Please be sure to follow the real-time scoring on our website.  My official SB post-game recap will not occur until next weekend, but you will know if you won the trophy right away.

~~ The Commish