First – please be sure to also submit your Super Bowl Bonus Pick before kickoff tomorrow afternoon.  It’s worth 100 points if you can pick the SB winner (it’s happened 33 times in HSBT history).  Second – thanks to all Participants for getting their scores submitted properly and on-time last week!  Let’s keep it up this weekend.

It’s shaping up to be a great football weekend with match-up questions and finger-licking promise in almost every game (we may have a snoozer Saturday night, unless you are a Patriots fan).  We have a weather-related schedule change, but that should not impact much.  Let’s get right to The Commish’s expert analysis and predictions (do not worry – if you have already submitted your picks, you can re-submit them after reading this insider information).  Be confident that the behind-the-scenes work that goes on every week here at the NFL Offices will pay you BIG dividends in your quest for the HSBT.  Just follow the predictions below and feel confident that this is as good as it gets!

Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons (favored by 4.5 points)
The last time the Seahawks lost a Divisional Playoff game on the road was in 2012 – to the Atlanta Falcons, 30-28, on Falcon K Matt Bryant’s last play FG.  History has a way of repeating itself.  More recently, these same Seahawks (with All-Pro S Earl Thomas, who is now out) beat the Falcons in Seattle in Week 6, 26-24.  That will tell you how close this game will be and it will be the kickers (or at least kicker…) who will make the difference.  Atlanta was a measly 5-3 at home this season and the Seahawks limped to a 4-4 road record.  Which bird is going to fly the highest this weekend?  Bet on Atlanta WR Julio Jones coming up with a monster game, backed by MVP-Candidate QB Matt Ryan (even with that 1-4 playoff record) having a big day.  Seahawk K Hauschka pulls a Scott Norwood at the end from 47…

Falcons 32, Seahawks 30

Houston Oilers Texans @ New England Patriots (favored by 16??)
These Texans are the only NFL team not to make it to their Conference Championship game.  Ever.  But they have been in the league only 15 years.  When was the last time you saw a team favored by 16 in a playoff game?  That’s 16 in the FIRST HALF!!  It doesn’t matter what personnel is playing with QB Tom Belichick, all he does is win.  Even visions of former Houston Oiler RB Earl Campbell ripping off 40 yard gains would not be enough for these woefully and non-offensive Texans.  Repeat of their Week 3 tilt coming right up…  Was that Brandon Weeden we saw under center for the Texans in the 2^nd half?

Patriots 37, Texans 0

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs (favored by 1.5 – yikes!)
The Sunday action starts (oops, ends now that we have decided to move it to the late game due to inclement weather predicted for Saturday night and Sunday morning in the Kansas City area) with a dandy. Who is gonna stop Le’Veon Bell?  Until there is an answer for that, the Steelers will be rolling past the famous KC barbeque to the AFC Championship game next weekend in Foxboro.  In Week 4, the Steelers lambasted the Chiefs at Heinz Field, 43-14.  Bell was “held” to 144 rushing yards and Big Ben picked up the slack with 5 TD tosses.  Meanwhile in BBQ-land, Chiefs Coach Andy Reid (“I’ll have 7 sides with those 2 slabs of beef, please”) is 18-5 is his last 23 games at Arrowhead, maybe the loudest stadium in the NFL.  Watch out for KR Tyreek Hill, as he will return 1 or maybe 2 all the way.  This is a “toss-em” game, but the home team prevails in the playoffs (for the 7^th consecutive time this year).  Big Ben has a 50% lower QB rating on the road than at home this year.

Chiefs 30, Steelers 27 (2 OT’s)

Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys (favored by 4.5)
Marquis game of the weekend.  We’ve already had 2 great ones.  Good thing tomorrow is a holiday, so we can get the nervous system back to normal.  The Pack has now ripped off 7 in a row.  QB Aaron Rodgers is white-hot (I told you last week that kryptonite would be the only thing to cool him down).  As soon as you think Green Bay is finally dead, a few Hail Mary’s become the magic elixir.  Who needs WR Jordy Nelson? 97 catches for 1,257 yards and 14 TD’s.  With those broken ribs, he won’t be suiting up.  That hit last weekend reminded me of Bills LB Mike Stratton plastering Charger RB Keith Lincoln in 1965 at War Memorial Stadium in the AFL Title Game (won by the Bills).  Over with America’s Team (yuck), optimism abounds.  Fondly looking back at their Week 6 win over the at-the-time rudderless Packers, they are sensing this as the opportunity to elevate the Cowboy dynasty to what it was in former years.  2 super rookies, but they are rookies.  Great O Line.

Superman snaps the home team winning streak at 7.  Yep, you first heard it here.

Packers 31, Cowboys 30

Participants – be sure to include your SB Bonus Pick (worth 100 points) with your picks.  This is the best weekend of the playoffs, so get warm and comfy with a few adult beverages and enjoy the games on your big screen in the man cave!

Of special note – you probably saw that the San Diego Chargers have Bolted for LA.  Back to where they started as an original member of the AFL in 1960.  Until their new stadium is built (2 years), they will be playing in front of 30,000 (if they all come…).  Regardless, they do have the coolest uniforms when they are wearing light blue…  They will be back in San Diego within 10 years, I “bolt”ly predict.  LA is just not a pro football town (or college football town, for that matter).

~~ The Commish