Conference Championships Analysis & Predictions

In: Updates

19 Jan 2018

Participants,

Once again, thanks for getting those picks submitted on time for all 4 games last weekend.  Now – let’s make it the trifecta and get both scores for the Conference Championship games sent in by 3:00pm EST this Sunday.  It’s really shaping up to be 2 terrific games, with the winners facing off in SB 52.

AFC Championship
Jacksonville Jaguars (12-6) @ New England Patriots (14-3)
For the 7th consecutive year, the Patriots are playing in this game.  The Jaguars are in the playoffs for the first time in 10 years.  Interestingly, they played each other that year (2008) in the Divisional Playoffs and the 16-0 Pats won at home, 31-20, on their way to SB 42 (and that heart-pumping loss to the New York Football Giants).  The Jags starting QB will be playing in his 3rd career playoff game and we are still adding up how many playoff games Giselle’s husband has played in.  The weather forecast for kickoff calls for balmy (30 degrees) and breezy (not Drew) conditions.

The biggest pre-game talk might be New England QB Tom Brady’s “jammed right hand” (no, it has nothing to do with raspberry preserves…) that was injured in practice earlier this week.  He was later seen, however, licking his wounds with a piece of toast in his left hand.  But he is still not practicing…

The surprising Jags have scored 30 or more points in 5 of their last 7 games, so last week’s explosion in Steeltown should come as no surprise.  Jags QB Blake Bortles can beat you in the air and on his feet (a feet that the NE QB cannot match…).  Their top-rated D can be staunch or raunch(y), as evidenced in last week’s game, where they gave up 42 points.  Bet on the former this Sunday.

Don’t need to say anything about the Patriots.  They just show up and win, and win, and win.  Which Bortles is going to show up?  The home field will make the difference, and it will come down to a big play in the 4th quarter (another heart-thumping game, for sure).  Will the Pats Dion Lewis remain the hottest RB, as he has been over the last 4 weeks?  Do you really think Jags CB Jalen Ramsey can cover Gronk all day?  He said he can, so let us see…

Patriots 33, Jaguars 20

NFC Championship
Minnesota Vikings (14-3) @ Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
Factoid – Both Texas-born starting QB’s for this game played on the same defunct NFL team.  Both are undefeated in their playoff careers as starters.  This is the first time since 1970 that the starting QB’s weren’t the starters for their teams in Week 1.  The weather forecast in the home of original Cheesesteak is downright tropical at 37 degrees for kickoff and a moderate breeze (watch those palm trees sway).  The Vikes will play to get into their 5th SB (amazingly, they are 0-4 in the SB – isn’t there another team with a similar record?) and the Eagles are looking to play in their 3rd SB and for the first time since 2005 (when they lost to the Patriots – is a repeat in the future?).

The Vikes have the best WR tandem in the NFL (Diggs and Thielen) and will create havoc for the modest Patriot DB’s.  Not sure they lost any 50-50 balls in that win over the Aints last weekend.

Will the Minnesota Miracle continue this weekend or will the #1 seeded home field underdog Eagles (again) be headed to Minnesota for another game in 2 weeks?  Can the Vikes O-Line control the Eagles powerful front 7?  Case (Keenum) closed as the Vikings will become the first team to play in the Super Bowl on their home field.  Another nail-biter that will be decided in OT…

Vikes 30, Eagles 27

HSBT History
20 Years Ago (1998)
This was the 4th year of the expanded 6-team format.  Greg the Great won the trophy (his 2nd), overcoming a 191-point deficit in Super Bowl XXXII (San Diego was the host city) – so, if you think you have no chance of winning the trophy this year, think again…  Buffalo Bill held what seemed to be an insurmountable lead going into the final game, only to end up in 5th place overall.  He led after the Wild Card Weekend games (with the highest point total in 3 of the 4 games), the Divisional Playoff and Conference Championship games.  League founder, The Englishman, ended up in 2nd with 502 points.

As always, I will have real-time scoring updates available thru our website in the “Standings” tab at the top.  Live thru the agony and ecstasy of each game…  Almost 60% of our historical points are available in the next 3 games, so make your picks wisely.  Nobody is mathematically eliminated at this point.

I’ll provide the usual recap and update on the HSBT standings early next week.

Until then, I am
~~ The Commish

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About HSBT

From its inception in 1989, the premier NFL Playoff football competition incorporates a dual-scoring system that rewards participants to not only pick the winning team, but also the game score with increasing significance every week

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  • Greg the Great: Go Hawks and Bears! And good luck to all in HSBT 31!! [...]
  • gregory: The updated scores are still on the standings tab, they look current to me. [...]
  • Brian: I'm not getting any updates, last week either. Is it not found on the standings sheet anymore? [...]
  • The Commish: The Commish will be watching and keeping the scores updated real-time all weekend. I spend the whol [...]
  • gregory: Is the Commish going to be able to keep the scores updated with that Sunday night game going in 2OT! [...]

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