Participants,

Welcome to the weekend where some serious football will be played!  Now that we have eliminated 6 pretenders, it’s time for the Elite 8 to get down to business.

We have 4 terrific games, starting this Saturday at 4:35pm EST, so please sure to submit your picks (using the “Submit Picks” tab on our website) for all 4 weekend games, PLUS your Super Bowl Bonus Pick, no later than 4:30pm.

Historically, the Divisional Round provides the most points of any playoff weekend for the HSBT Participants, with 31% of all the points earned.  So, some extra analysis and data modeling has gone into the game predictions before sharing them with you.

Before we jump into the game analysis and predictions, it is appropriate to review the status of the HSBT competition and the thoughts that one must consider before placing those ill-fated picks on Saturday:

• JTB – He is our current leader (automatically adds pressure to stay in that lofty position) and has a big pick to make in the Cleveland @ KC game on Sunday. Dawg gonna it…  He’s never been in the lead after the Wild Card Weekend.
• HenricoFiveOh – Sitting comfortably in 2nd place right now, with a smug feeling that no matter what happens this weekend he has a legitimate shot to win it all – again. Last year at this time he was also in 2nd place and ended up capturing the trophy.  But he has the 3rd lowest % of correct picks in league history.  On the flip side, he holds the record for most points in a Divisional Round game, with 205 (back in 2012).  Will he be dressed from head to toe in Bills gear?
• Greg the Great – No need to worry about a pick for the Seahawks or da Bears, but the Bills are looming large. The Divisional Round games have not been kind to him historically (averaging 43.9 points per game – 2nd lowest in HSBT history).  Also, is he going to pick Mr. Discount Double Check to defeat the Rams?
• Buffalo Bill – Squandered the chance last weekend to keep his historically excellent start (with a record of 73 correct picks) as the foundation for a run to capture the elusive trophy. As his name indicates, he will also have a difficult decision to make when the Ravens invade Orchard Park on Saturday night for a thriller.  He is also the all-time point leader in the Divisional Round, so that should help keep the blood pressure and jittery nerves in check.  Maybe.
• Ben the Butler – Licking his chops as he prepares for this weekend. He’s the all-time points per game leader in the Divisional Round, with 56.2, so he’s gotta be feeling confident.  Plus, he doesn’t have to worry about his heart being tugged by a favorite team as he crafts out his picks.  This could be a big weekend for Ben the Butler.
• 2021 Winner – Taking the analytical approach will result in a terrific weekend for him and he is projected to be the HSBT leader after the Divisional Round games have concluded on Sunday night. With the lowest average game variance in HSBT history (16.92), he is primed to make another run to capture his 7th trophy.
• Pete the Terp – It all comes down to 1 game pick for him. His former beloved Buffalo Bills or his current beloved Baltimore Ravens.  Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson?  A tough decision is pending.  One senses he is starting to make a silent move to capture his 3rd trophy and this weekend might be where it all commences.
• Comeback Kid – He’s been in this position before and used this round to catapult him on a path to victory. A historic slow starter who just improves every week.  He really Bill-ieves in Buffalo so watch out for his game pick!

ANALYSIS & GAME PREDICTIONS

#6 LA Rams (11-6) @ #1 Green Bay Packers (13-3)
The last time these 2 teams met was in the 2018 regular season, with the Rams narrowly beating the Pack, 29-27.  Later that season the Rams went to Super Bowl 53 and the Pack did not make the playoffs.

The unstoppable Packer All-Pro WR Davante Adams (115 receptions, 1,374 yards and 12 TD’s) will face the unflappable top-rated Rams defense and All-Pro DB Jalen Ramsey, who a week ago shut down Megatron II in the Rams win over the Seahawks.  Whoever wins this matchup will most likely advance to the NFC Championship game.

The QB comparison is unfair – the 2nd GOAT #12, Aaron Rodgers (probably the league’s co-MVP with Bills QB Josh Allen!!) vs. Jared Goff/Jon Wolford.  The RB comparison is unfair – Aaron Jones vs. Rookie Cam Akers.  And, the weather will not be unfair, with game time forecast in the low 30’s (balmy for Green Bay this time of year) and a slight chance of snow.

The road to Super Bowl 55 runs through Green Bay.
Green Bay Packers 23, LA Rams 16

#5 Baltimore Ravens (12-5) @ #2 Buffalo Bills (14-3)
This is shaping up to be THE game of the week, with 2 dueling QB’s launching their attacks in Orchard Park, NY.  Both teams have not lost a game in several weeks and appear to be at their peaks right now.  The Ravens will run, run, run until the Bills can stop them – if they can.  A daunting task, for sure, against the #1 rushing team in the NFL this season.

On the other side, the Bills fate will rest with the arm and legs of QB Josh Allen if they hope to advance.  Another 6,700 fans will be allowed in the stadium and they will need to create the noise level as if it’s a full house.  The Bills have a lot of offensive weapons in the receiving corps, but not much in the running game (especially with the injury to Zack Moss).

Like last week in Orchard Park, this one will also go down to the last series of plays, with rookie K Bass making the game-winning FG from… 47 yards!
Buffalo Still Bill-ieving 24, Baltimore Ravens 23

#6 Cleveland Browns (12-5) @ #1 Kansas City Chiefs (14-2)
Do we smell an upset in the making?  Or, is this just the Dawg Pound invading Missouri?  Either way, the high-flying team from “the mistake on the lake” will get to tangle with the AFC’s top team as the Sunday slate of games gets going.

Very, very hard to pick against the heavily favored Chiefs, who are well-rested and have an arsenal of weapons at their disposal.  But they also have a few chinks in the armor and Cleveland plans to exploit those with a solid run-first offense and opportunistic D.

The Chiefs come out rusty while the Browns are still riding high from last week’s beat-down of the Steelers.
Kansas City Chiefs 26, Cleveland Browns 27 (and heading to Buffalo for the AFC Championship!)

#5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (12-5) @ #2 New Orleans Saints (13-4)
Two over-40 quarterbacks might lead to one taking a nap.  I wouldn’t.  As was mentioned a week ago, it’s so difficult to beat a team 3 times in 1 season.  The Saints are 2-0 vs. the Brady Bunch this season.  These 2 teams are very similar and very evenly matched.

Saints QB Drew Brees is getting healthier and it doesn’t hurt having WR Michael Thomas back on the field.  RB Alvin Kamara is a beast running and catching the ball and could be up for 3 TD’s.  On the flip side, Bucs QB #12 has 3 very talented WR’s that will pressure the Saints DB’s all night, but the ground game has been less than impressive (but sneaky).

The Saints are favored, but are you going to bet against Brady in the playoffs?
New Orleans Saints (for the 3rd time this season) 31, Tampa Bay Bucs 27

Reminder to all – please be sure to submit your picks on time!  Now, sit back and enjoy the 4 awesome games this weekend!

Until I send out my post weekend wrap-up early next week, I remain,
~~ THE Commish