SUPER WILD CARD WEEKEND PREVIEW AND PREDICTIONS

Welcome to the 33rd season of the Hewes Super Bowl Trophy (HSBT) which will culminate in crowning a champion at the conclusion of the 55th Super Bowl on February 7.

Before moving into the official league analysis and predictions, a couple key reminders for all Participants:

• Your Super Wild Card Weekend predictions are to be submitted on our dedicated website using the “Submit Picks” tab at the top.  This will provide for a timestamp and a receipt that your picks were properly submitted.
• Your picks for all 6 games this weekend must be submitted no later than 1:00pm on Saturday, January 9 (5 minutes prior to kickoff of the 1st weekend game).  Our website has a Countdown Timer in the upper right section to help you.
• If a game pick is submitted after the start of a game, that pick will result in -25 points for that game, but your remaining picks will be accounted for as if they were submitted on time.
• I would encourage you to test the Submit Picks function to be sure everything is working on your end.  You may also want to check your Spam email if you are having trouble locating a confirmation email from The Commish that your picks were properly and timely submitted.

What an end to the regular season during Week 17.  How can a 10-6 team not make the playoffs while a 7-9 team does?  While the 10-5 Miami Dolphins (with one of the top rated defenses in the NFL) were busy getting blasted out of the playoffs like an Elon Musk SpaceX launch, the Washington Redskins Football Team was taking care of business and defaulting into the playoffs by winning the super-weak NFC East (who sported a combined regular season record of 23-40-1).  Had they lost, the New York Football Giants would have “earned” the division with a miserable 6-10 record.

In the AFC, you had to be at least 11-5 to make the playoffs this year – a record in the NFL.

HSBT By the Numbers
As we begin to embark upon our 33rd season, a few key milestones could be achieved by the Participants:

• HenricoFiveOh is going for the first-ever “3-peat” if he wins, which would give him the trophy in 2019, 2020 and this year. When invites to participate this year were emailed a couple weeks ago, he replied that he was in “since someone has to pick the Bills to win it all.”  Let’s see how true he stays to that claim!
• Ben the Butler is going for a “1-peat” and is back from IR and ready to win his first trophy. And, he doesn’t have to pick his beloved New York Football Giants to win any playoff game.  Welcome back, Ben the Butler!
• Will Greg the Great’s record of 110 points in a Wild Card game (established in 1996, making it one of the oldest records) be eclipsed?  His beloved Seahawks, Bills and Bears are all in the playoffs.
• 2021 Winner needs only 638 points during the playoffs to be the 1st participant to hit the 20,000 point mark for a career.  Projections (based on Monte Carlo simulations) indicate he will eclipse that number no later than the end of the Conference Championship games.
• Buffalo Bill is 1,267 points away from the 20,000 point career milestone and will need a significantly better season to hit that mark than what has done in recent performances. His season best is 936 points.
• Likewise, Comeback Kid is “only” 1,537 points from the 20,000 point mark, and he will have done it in 2 less seasons than 2021 Winner or Buffalo Bill. His season high is 1,049 points, which he achieved 5 years ago.  The expanded number of playoff games will play favorably for him, but having the Bills in the playoffs looms large for his picks.
• With the expanded number of Wild Card Weekend games, we should expect those records to be re-established. Comeback Kid amassed his record 243 points in a season back in 2010, and a 300-point effort by one of the participants is not out of the question.
• With 2 extra games, is Pete the Terp’s single season mark of 1,322 points in jeopardy? Who will eclipse the 1,500 point mark?
• With his beloved Browns in the playoffs for the 1st time in 18 years, will JTB pick them to go all the way and hopefully nail down his 2nd trophy?
• Are the stars aligned for Buffalo Bill?  His last trophy was captured in 2003 – the last time the Browns were in the playoffs!  Does he finally register his 4th win this year to put an end to his 17-year drought?  Now that he is retired, he has been able to dedicate 100% of his time to that goal.

The 6-game, 22- hour weekend marathon will begin on Saturday!  Our local Doordash franchise has been ramping up for football food deliveries starting at 1:00pm on Saturday and continuing until almost midnight (unless the 8:15pm games go into OT).

#7 Indianapolis Colts (11-5) @ #2 Buffalo Bills (13-3) – Bills favored by 6.5 points
As we kickoff the Saturday action, a lot of emotional history will accompany this game, as Colts Head Coach Frank Reich comes back to Buffalo for a playoff game (with visions of the January 3, 1992 miracle comeback he orchestrated dancing in his head).  The folks in Buffalo actually like Frank Reich, but probably a little less this week.

The last time the Colts made a playoff appearance (2019) they were ousted in the first Wild Card Game of the weekend by the Houston Texans on the road.  The Bills are planning on a repeat of that event.

Is there a D in the NFL that can stop the Bills offense?  The Josh Allen-led “A-Gun” offense (is it really time to move past the famous K-Gun offense of the 1990’s early Bills teams?) has been cranking at full throttle, culminating in a 56-point effort in Week 17 against the “stout” Dolphin defense – and the key starters only played the 1st half!  They are hotter than a bucket of Anchor Bar Buffalo Wings with a double side of Extreme Heat sauce.  Pass the Ranch dressing!

The Colts were very impressive over the last 4 weeks and sport a solid D, much improved running game (with rookie Jonathan Taylor rushing for a team record 253 yards last Sunday) and a veteran (nice word for “old”) QB with some playoff experience.  And a familiar head coach…

You gotta Bill-lieve that Buffalo begins its Super Bowl quest in handsome fashion with almost 7,000 hungry fans in attendance.  1992 was the Rise of the 1st Reich and 2021 is the Fall of the 2nd Reich…

Buffalo 37, Indianapolis 20 (Did Josh Allen really toss 5 TD passes?)

#6 LA Rams (10-6) @ #3 Seattle Seahawks (12-4) – Seahawks favored by 5
Let’s play Week 17 all over, with the same teams in the same venue.  The Hawks won that tussle, 26-23, as the Rams played with their 2nd string QB.  The Seahawks D has been coming to life over the past 6 weeks and the Rams Goff-ense had been led by the highly inconsistent Jared.

The Rams, however, boast maybe the best D of the teams in the playoffs and are led by DT Aaron Donald (arguably the best defensive player in the NFL over the last 5 years).  One the other side of the ball, the Seahawks are led (as usual) by QB Russell Wilson and his new, favorite target – Megatron II (who normally goes by the name DK Metcalf).

This game should hinge on two things:  1) will Jared Goff be able to play (he was out Week 17 with an injury) and 2) which Jared Goff will show up?

Look for the home team to get into playoff mode real fast this year and send the Rams back to LA.

Seattle 29, LA Rams 17 (Too bad Jared Goff reinjured that thumb in the 1st quarter)

#5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5) @ #4 Washington Football Team (7-9) – Tampa Bay favored by 7.5
Guess who’s back in the playoffs??  Yep, the GOAT #12 and he’s sporting a different jersey this year.  Hard to believe you would call a Brady-led team a “sleeper” but that is where the pundits have the Bucs positioned.

On the other side, we have comeback player of the year, QB Alex Smith, who has returned from a gruesome leg injury 2 years ago to lead the WFT to the playoffs for the 1st time since 2016.  That year they were the #4 seed and lost at home in the Wild Card Weekend game to the favored Packers.  Move the clock ahead 5 years and we have a recipe for a repeat.  The WFT plays really good D, but not a lot else.

The Super Bowl has never been played on a team’s home field.  Just saying…

Tampa Bay 23, WFT 13 (Even with Tom Brady being sacked 5 times)

#5 Baltimore Ravens (11-5) @ #4 Tennessee Titans (11-5) – Baltimore favored by 4.5
Can you say “run the football?”  These 2 teams do it exceptionally well, with the Titans Derrick Henry going over the 2,000 yard mark this season and the Ravens leading the league with over 3,000 rushing yards.  These 2 teams ranked #1 and #2 this season with a combined 5,761 yards (that’s 360 yards per game).

Both QB’s fit in with their respective team’s style and neither has a plethora of receiving weapons, but can surprise you with some big passing plays.

Last year these 2 tangled in the Divisional Round and the Titans upset the #1 seeded Ravens in Baltimore.  This year is the Raven Revenge Tour and it starts in Nashville with our 1st Sunday game of the day.

Baltimore 29, Tennessee 26 (With a 45-yard dinger off the upright to win in OT, just as the Titans did last week)

#7 Chicago Bears (8-8) @ #2 New Orleans Saints (12-4) – New Orleans favored by 9
Mitch Trubisky or Drew Brees?  Which one do you want under center in a playoff game?  da Bears snuck into the playoffs with some Week 17 help from other teams, while the Saints have been one of the NFC’s best teams all year, despite not having all-world WR Michael Thomas and the aforementioned Brees out for extended periods.  And RB Alvin Kamara (yep, he had 6 rushing TD’s a couple weeks ago) may not play, either.

All indications point towards a Saints blowout win, but this is why they play the game.  The Saints are eager to finally forget about their playoff fortunes the past 2 years and get 1 more ring for their #9.  Ring up an upset special.

da Bears 27, da Saints 24 (another OT thriller, as Bears K Cairo Santos atones for last year’s missed FG)

#6 Cleveland Browns (11-5) @ #3 Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) – Steelers favored by 4
Another Week 17 replay, but the cast of characters will be different (primarily for the Steelers).  Cleveland is back in the playoffs after a rather long absence (2003) and has a great RB tandem (Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt) who need to be leaned upon if the inconsistent passing game (led by Mr. Progressive Commercial) is to be effective.  The Browns also have an episode of Covid-19 to deal with and Head Coach Stefanski will not be able to run the show.

The Steelers started the season 11-0, then faltered mightily before showing signs of recovery in weeks 16 and 17.  It all starts with their D and it was impressive all year long.  Memories of their last playoff game (a home loss to Jacksonville in 2018) have lingered for 3 years.

Hard to believe that the Browns could pull this one out with the Steelers playing their A team.  Welcome to the playoffs.  Baker Mayfield solidifies his franchise QB label (well, at least until the 2021 NFL Draft in April – which by the way will be hosted in Cleveland).

Cleveland 20, Pittsburgh 19 (Diontae Johnson drops a 60-yard TD pass on the game’s final play)

SOME FINAL HSBT QUESTIONS

• Ben the Butler is the only participant who does not have the team he roots for in this year’s playoffs, so he has a decided advantage over the rest of the field. Will this provide him with the needed impetus to capture his 1st trophy?
• Is the Bills hype for real? For sure – and the western New Yorkers (including HSBT Participant, Comeback Kid) have totally forgotten they have a hockey team!
• Can da Bears pull an upset? The Saints have a lot of pressure on them to march on, but may be missing their star RB and WR.
• Teams with a losing regular season record have been in the playoffs 2 times and both have won (home games) their Wild Card Weekend game. Will the Washington Football Team make it 3 in a row?
• The home team sweep in the Wild Card Weekend games has happened only 2 times in the last 10 years – how many upsets will there be and who is going to be upset?
• Henrico FiveOh seems primed to capture his 3rd consecutive (and 9th overall) trophy. Can anyone unseat him or is this a dynasty in the making?
• Which Seahawks team is going to show up for the tough re-matchup vs. the LA Rams? Rest assured that Greg the Great (Seattle-area resident) will be picking them BIG!
• Will Buffalo Bill continue with his excellent performance in the Wild Card games (league leader with 73 career correct picks) or will he add to his goose-egg record?
• Is Pete the Terp drinking the Ravens Revenge Tour kool-aid? A very tough matchup awaits this weekend in Nashville for his beloved team.  A victory against the Titans would put Baltimore into the Divisional Round game possibly against the Bills.  A real dilemma awaits…
• Will JTB have the Browns winning big in Pittsburgh this weekend? By how much?  What level of faith does he have in QB Baker Mayfield?  Cleveland squares off on Sunday Night vs. JTB’s favorite QB, Big Ben – not!

Reminder – your picks for all 6 Wild Card Weekend games are to be submitted no later than 1:00pm Eastern time this Saturday.  Please use the “Submit Picks” tab on our website to submit them.

Enjoy the weekend games!  I’ll be providing real-time scoring updates (with some projected delays during the Seahawks – Rams game) and will also be active on Slack, where we already have 4 participants communicating.

Until next week when I publish the results of Super Wild Card Weekend, I remain

~~ The Commish