Participants,

After the weekend bludgeonings during the Super Wild Card games, we are now left with the “Elite 8” of the NFL.  There are 4 terrific games on the slate, starting Saturday at 4:30pm EST.  The odds-makers are at odds with whom to pick to move on to the Conference Championship games, so let me lend some clarity to the challenges ahead.

First, a gentle reminder that all your weekend game picks – including the Super Bowl Bonus pick – are to be submitted no later than 4:29pm EST on Saturday, January 23, 2022.

#4 Cincinnati Bengals (11-7) @ #1 Tennessee Titans (12-5)
Is he going to play?  If he does, how effective will he be?  Will it even matter?  These are the questions looming in the heads of the Titan coaching staff surrounding RB Derrick Henry.  He’s back on the practice field after a 10-week absence.

The 3’s Have It

• The Titans are favored by 3 tiny, miniscule points (remember – the home team always gets a 3-point edge)
• Tennessee is currently viewed as the #3 ranked playoff team in the AFC, behind those guys from western New York and Kansas City
• The Tennessee running game ranked #3 in the NFL, in spite of RB Henry’s absence for half the regular season.

Will Bengals QB Joe remain hot for another game or will he look for place to Burrow a hole after a down-to-earth performance?  Look for Tennessee to “titan” their D to keep that potent Wincinnati offense in check.

This will be the least exciting game of the weekend, as the Bengals take an early lead and force Tennessee to move the ball through the air too often.  Titan’s QB Tannehill will have one of his worst passing performances of the season.

Who Dey 30, #1 AFC Seed 26

#6 San Francisco 49ers (11-7) @ #1 Green Bay Packers (13-4)
Jimmy G has a bum thumb, bruised shoulder and cracked bone in his hand.  Mr. Discount Double Check (what is with that hair?) is getting over a turf toe issue.  How these 2 play on Saturday night will determine the victor.  The Pack is favored by 4 points and it’s a good thing you will be enjoying this game from your home, as it will be in the single digits in Titletown this weekend.

The 49er’s are still basking in the glory of that improbable win in Big D last weekend.  Look for the offense to totally unleash All-Pro WR/RB Deebo Samuel for 150 yards and 3 TD’s.  Look for Aaron Rodgers to put up that same stat line – in the first half, with a pair of TD connections to Davante Adams.

This game should be a toss-up, with the winner being able to conquer the elements.

Packers 31, San Francisco 27

#4 LA Rams (13-5) @ #2 Tompa Bay Buccaneers (14-4)
The Rams were surgically ousted from the playoffs a year ago in the Divisional Round, but blew out the Cardinals last weekend as the kickoff to their Revenge Tour 2022.  Very intentionally they have added some key veterans (Matthew Stafford, Von Miller, OBJ, Jalen Ramsey, Sony Michel, etc.) this year to make a full run at the SB56 title.

The Bucs surgically destroyed the Eagles last weekend, but have a couple of question marks on their OL that may force TB out of the pocket (can he run that far?) more times than he would like.  The D is solid, but will it hold up against the Rams powerhouse?

Everything points to a Rams upset, but someone forgot to tell that to the GOAT!

Bucs 26, Rams 23 (OT)

#3 Buffalo Bills (12-6) @ #2 Kansas City Chiefs (13-5)
The weekend finale is shaping up to be one of the finest games you will see.  Ever.  In a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship game, the Chiefs are looking to even the regular season series as they were manhandled 38-20 in front of a raucous Arrowhead crowd back in Week 5.  The Bills are looking to play like last weekend, when they made up for 20 years of disappointment against the Patriots.  That healing has started in a very serious way.

The Chiefs are favored because they are in Arrowhead.  The offense has been improving, but still has inconsistencies that the Bills will exploit.  The Bills are the underdogs because they are in Arrowhead.  Can Josh Allen mirror last week’s performance?  He may need to.

The winner will have a home game for the AFC Championship Game.

Kansas City 27, Buffalo 30 (OT)

Welcome to Highmark Stadium on Sunday, January 30!

Gentle reminder #2 – all 4 game picks, plus your Super Bowl Bonus Pick – are to be submitted no later than this Saturday at 4:29pm EST.  I can’t wait for the action to begin.  Get those chores out of the way on Saturday morning, load up on your favorite food and beverages, and settle in that comfy chair by the fireplace!

~~ The Commish