Participants,

Well, this weekend has finally arrived.  The longest regular season in history (17 games played over an 18-week period), the closest scores in the playoffs (5 of the last 6 games were decided by a FG), and the first time in 33 years the Bengals have played for the Vince Lombardi Trophy.

Game Analysis
On paper this looks like another close game.  The Rams, playing on their home field but officially the visitors for the game, are favored by a scant 4 points.  Surely, they will have the home field advantage and most likely more local fans will be at the game than Bengals supporters – who are 2,189 miles away.  Let’s take a closer look at the game and what the final score will be (we have run 15,000 game simulations to account for every perceived outcome):

“Who Dey” First and 10
Do you remember Broadway Joe and his Super Bowl 3 game prediction for the upstart Jets back in 1969?  Joe Willie Namath was a Southern lad and his team was a decided underdog against the Baltimore Ravens Colts.  Why does this new Joe Cool remind you of him?  Maybe not as flashy off the field, but just as good (or better!) on the field.  3 dynamic WR’s, a top-end RB, and destiny.

The biggest question will be “how many times will Burrow get sacked?”  Vegas has the Over/Under at 10.5  He is the first Super Bowl QB to lead the league in sacks, as he has been unceremoniously dumped on his back-end 51 times in the 16 regular season games he played in.  The Titans dirtied up his jersey 10 times and the Rams front 7 will be looking to add another 15 or so to that total.

So, the Bengals will need to rely on quick slants, an open TE (who is Questionable), and enough gaps for All-Pro RB Mixon to slash for large chunks.

Count on the big name players on the Rams D to come up big.  11 sacks, 2 forced fumbles and a pick-6.

Rams First and 10
When the Rams are on offense (and they will be without TE Higbee), it can be scary for opposing defenses.  WR Cooper Kupp (runneth over) may get his capable hands on at least a dozen tosses from QB Stafford.  And look for OBJ (I wonder if he’s glad he was traded from the Browns mid-season?) to terrorize the suspect Bengal DB’s.  The average running game will come up big, with a healthy Cam Akers and mid-season acquiree Sony (Playstation) Michel.  And now the best of their RB’s (Henderson) has come off IR.

The Bengals D has been steadily improving, so they should not be underestimated.  “Holding” the Chiefs to 24 points last weekend was pretty good, especially in the second half and OT – when they allowed just a FG.  Look for 2 key plays that could turn the game around at critical points.

Game Prediction
“Who Dey” 27, St. Louis LA Rams 26 (Wincinnati rookie K boots the winner with 00:13 left)

HSBT Predictions
First, Ben the Butler submitted his game pick on Saturday, Feb 5 – a full 8 days before kickoff.  No negative points for him in the Big One!  Will it be enough to make up that miniscule 422-point deficit and capture his first-ever trophy?  If Namath could do it, why not?  If he does win, he will shatter the HSBT comeback record of 356 points (set last year by Comeback Kid).

Game Score Predictions & Your Winner of the HSBT Is…

• Comeback Kid – Everyone is in his rearview mirror and he fully intends to keep it that way. A very comfortable 122-point lead.  He’s #2 on the goose-egg all-time list, so who knows what to expect?  Bet on him betting on the Bills.  He’ll be on the medal podium, but not on the highest perch in the middle…
• Greg the Great – Hopes to keep riding the wave of solid picks from the Conference Championships and clinch his 7th.  As long as he doesn’t pick the Seahawks or Bears he’s got as good a chance as anyone.  Oh so, close this year.
• Buffalo Bill (the Packer Backer) – He really needs to end his 18-year trophy drought this weekend. He’s certainly within range and a perfect pick will probably seal the deal.  But how many perfect picks are to be made in the Super Bowl game?  None yet.  Let’s hope he doesn’t go crazy and add to his record 42 goose-eggs.  He’s picked the SB game winner only 17 times in 33 tries.  Advice – do not pick Green Bay.
• 2022 Winner – Yep.
• Pete the Terp – Always aiming for the bronze chicken wing, a SB game delicacy. This will be the most intriguing pick of the weekend.  His biggest comeback to win the trophy is 20 points, and he’ll need significantly more than that to capture #3.  A 169-point challenge lies ahead.  Please do not pick the Ravens.
• JTB – Everyone was probably laughing when he picked Wincinnati for his Super Bowl Bonus points. Nobody is laughing now.  That extra 100 points plus a doozy of a game pick (we’re thinking the Bengals 46, LA 17) and the trophy will be headed back to Ohio.  He needs to go BIG.  Just don’t pick the other Ohio team.
• HenricoFiveOh – This is unfamiliar territory for the all-time trophy leader. If you though JTB’s score was over the top, wait until we post HenricoFiveOh’s – if he hits it, it could be a 1,500 point season and trophy #9!  More than likely, a goose-egg could be staring him in the eye.  Isn’t 8 trophies enough?
• Ben the Butler – OK, a zero-point variance will be required to overcome this deficit. It hasn’t been done in the Super Bowl game, and Pete the Terp is the closest with a variance of 1 in 2017.  Even that variance gave him only 352 points.  A lot of mistakes by the others is needed in order for him to hoist the trophy.

Kickoff is 6:30pm, so be sure to get your picks in before then.  The best of luck to everyone and look for a quick announcement of the winner shortly after the game!  I have my beef on weck, subs, wings (4 levels of hot), cold beverages and real-time game updates ready to go!

Until then, I remain
~~ The Commish