We’ve got 4 dandy games on tap this weekend, with all kinds of amateur analysis available that would lead you to believe that almost any of the 8 teams will make it their respective Conference Championship game next Sunday.  Sadly, there will be only 4 winners this weekend (along with 4 losers).  Knowing which of the 4 will win is probably why you read the expert analysis from The Commish.  So, here we go:

Baltimore “Ray”vens @ Denver Broncos
What a great matchup to kick-off the weekend!  Baltimore disposed of the rookie Colts last weekend with their usual dash of defensive bravado and a QB that still makes you scratch your head wondering if he could actually come from behind in a game and lead them to the Super Bowl.  The Broncos enter the game riding an 11-game winning streak (after a 2-3 start) and boast the #2 pass defense in the NFL.  They bashed the Ray-less Ravens 4 weeks ago in Baltimore, 34-17.  Super (Bowl?) QB Peyton Manning last lost to Baltimore in 2001, so don’t expect any miracles at Mile High in the 1^st weekend thriller.  If resurgent Bronco RB Knowshon Moreno goes over 100 yards rushing (the Colts were way over that mark last weekend, even though they had 54 passes), Denver will be hosting the AFC Championship game.  The other Ray (Rice) will need to be a workhorse if the Ravens plan to continue playing this January.  He’s been under-utilized the past several weeks and maybe by design so he’s healthy and fresh.  If it’s a defensive tussle, who would you rather have as you play caller?  Enjoy your retirement, Ray.

Let’s not be so quick to discard Baltimore, however.  QB Flacco (the new Daryl Lamonica? – bombs away!!) and WR Boldin have connected quite well recently, and with RB Rice going for 100+ yards, plus a few key catches for crucial first downs, Baltimore will make this game quite entertaining.  Emotionally, the Raven D should put significant pressure on Peyton and there should be plenty of Bronco turf on his passing glove when this one is officially in the books.  Also look for Raven S Ed Reed to have a huge game with some big hits (hello, Eric Decker) and blitz schemes.  And, K Billy (“Bookend”) Cundiff is now gone – there won’t be any missed FG’s at the end like last year’s disaster at Foxboro in the AFC Championship game.  Bookend?  He missed wide left to win a big game last year and a kicker from western New York missed wide right in 1991 at the end of a rather important game.  Bad memories…

Baltimore will do much better than the spread (9-1/2 points) and could even surprise the Broncos if Peyton doesn’t get warmed up early.  It’s going to be a cold night at Mile High, with some snow in the forecast to add to the intrigue.  Turnovers and field position will dictate the outcome in this defensive gem.

Denver 20, Baltimore 17 (Sorry, Pete the Terp)
Or, with 2 Peyton picks and Ray lets it all hang out – Baltimore 28, Denver 23

Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49’ers
Rematch of the 1^st game of the season, when the 49’ers were victorious (with former starting QB Alex Smith).  While the Packers rather easily disposed of the Vikings last week, the 49’ers were busy getting healthy.  For SF QB Colin Kaepernick, this is his first playoff start against a revitalized Green Bay D.  RB Frank Gore will be heavily counted on; stopping him will be a big chore for Green Bay against the league’s best offensive line.  Smash mouth football at its best.

Green Bay will rely on the arm and legs of QB Aaron Rodgers, his arsenal of receivers and a recently improved and healthy defense (LB Clay Mathews and S Charles Woodson are back).  Having RB James Starks could be a big boost, but still look for Rodgers to put it in the air a bunch.  Can Justin Smith, Aldon Smith and the rest of the top-rated 49’er D get to Rodgers and unsettle him early?

This one is also shaping up to be a defensive struggle.  So – do you want Aaron Rodgers or Colin Kaepernick guiding your team late in the 4^th quarter (or OT) when you need to score?

In an OT upset – Green Bay 31, San Francisco 28 (why is it so hard to pick the 49’ers?)
Because they are the better team, that’s why – SF 24, Green Bay 17
Will the legacy continue for Aaron Rodgers?

Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons
Talk about being hard to pick a team.  The #1 seeded Falcons, winless in the playoffs the last 3 times (over 4 years), are only favored by 2.5 points (you automatically get 3 points for playing at home).  The Seahawks are coming off an inspired comeback victory over the Redskins last weekend, having been down 14-0 in the 1^st quarter.  Seattle rookie QB Russell Wilson is anything but.  He now has more career playoff wins (1) than his Falcon counterpart, veteran Matt Ryan (0).

Seattle depends on their stout D, which will be without leading sack leader, DE Chris Clemons.  This “theoretically” should help Matt Ryan in his quest for his 1^st playoff win.  Atlanta has a few excellent receivers (Julio Jones, Roddy White and TE Tony Gonzalez), but a dismal rushing game averaging only 87 yards per game (Michael Turner led the way during the regular season with only 800 yards).  Look for the Seahawk D to make some big “wake me up” hits early on those crossing patterns over the middle (“Hey, Julio, your mouth guard is over here…”).

The Seahawks will pound it out on the ground using The Beast formation, featuring Marshawn Lynch.  Some timely, dynamic scrambles by Wilson for key first downs, added with that rugged D and you have the recipe for an upset over the (un)favored Falcons.

Another “upset” in the making – Seattle 30, Atlanta 26
The Falcons will finally get the playoff monkey off their backs – Atlanta 37, Seattle 21

Houston Texans @ New England Patriots
The final weekend game should be interesting, too.  Houston comes off a sleepy win over the Bengals and isn’t really making anyone say “Texans and Super Bowl” in the same sentence.  New England, with only 80% of the team on the official injury list this week, has all kinds of weapons that make you want to say “Patriots and Super Bowl” in the same sentence frequently.  The Texans may have a good D, but the Patriots have far too many offensive weapons.  In the end, Houston DE JJ will wonder Watt happened.

It’s Matt Schaub vs. Tom Brady.  Who do you like?  The Patriots are already booking tickets to Denver.  Or will they be hosting the “Ray”vens next weekend?

New England 38, Houston 20
And if Texan RB Arian Foster goes for the usual 125 yards and 2 TD’s – New England 38, Houston 20
And if QB Matt Schaub gets hot and the Houston D steps it up – New England 38, Houston 20

Don’t forget to include your Super Bowl Bonus Pick when you submit your game picks for the weekend.  On paper these could all be very close games and let’s just hope they are fun to watch.  I’ll have my weekend wrap-up out early next week.

~~ The Commish