Participants,

Welcome to the 30^th Anniversary of the Hewes Super Bowl Trophy!!  We finally have determined the 12 teams that will compete for this year’s Super Bowl (SB52), and the playoffs start this Saturday, January 6 with the 4 WildCard games.  Our website has been updated with the results from last year.  A few reminders before the real action begins as the 7 participants prepare to battle it out.

That’s right – 7.  In an NFL season ravaged by injuries to key personnel on almost every team, we have learned that Ben the Butler has been placed on Injured Reserve (IR) and will not be able to participate in this year’s HSBT competition.  The nature or severity of the injury is not known at this time, but we wish him well in his recovery.  The Office of the Commish did have an opportunity to briefly speak with Ben the Butler and he commented, “It’s a sad day here in Brooklyn to inform the HSBT participants that I am unable to participate this year.  I was looking forward to capturing my 1^st HSBT trophy and was confident that after 10 years in the league, I was just going to do that.  I’m glad to see a New York team in the playoffs, and will be rooting for the Buffalo Bills to win it all!”  Ben the Butler will be missed by all this season and we look forward to him re-joining in 2019.

Before that, here are some fun facts from the very first HSBT competition in 1989:

• We had 4 participants
  • DWH (to be later called The Englishman)
  • WJH (to be later called Buffalo Bill)
  • TAH (to be later called Comeback Kid)
  • SRH (to be later called YYYY Winner)
• There were only 2 WildCard games
  • The Houston Oilers (with Warren Moon) beat the Cleveland Browns, 24-23
  • The Minnesota Vikings beat the LA Rams (before they moved to St. Louis, then back to LA), 28-17
• Everything was done via US Mail and telephone calls to a land line
  • Game predictions were called into the league’s “accountant” Phyllis Hewes, who recorded them on a secret piece of paper. They were then revealed to DWH once his picks were made.
  • Results were tabulated and maintained on an Apple III computer by DWH, then printed out and sent to each participant via US Mail. They usually arrived by Wednesday or Thursday
• The original scoring system is still used today
• TAH won the 1^st HSBT Trophy, with 430 points
• The 49ers beat the Bengals in Super Bowl XXIII, 20-16

RULES
Please read the “League Rules” (found on our home page at www.hewessbt.com) to become reacquainted with all you need to know.  I’m available to answer any questions.

MAKING YOUR PICKS
All picks are officially submitted on our site, using the “Submit Picks” tab.  Enter the team names and respective score you believe will be the final game score for each game.  Once you have submitted your scores, they will be time-stamped and sent via email to The Commish, who will load them to the site.  The Commish will not look at any game score submissions until he has submitted his scores in the same manner.  Please – no last minute frantic text messages with your scores.

KEEPING TRACK
Visit the “Standings” tab to get real-time updated game scores and your points as games are played.  This interactive feature was implemented 3 years ago and has received numerous kudos from the serious game watchers (that have a strong correlation to the eventual HSBT winners).

REMINDERS (As I Do Every Year)

1. Picks for ALL 4 WildCard Weekend games are to be submitted no later than 4:30pm EST on Saturday, January 6 (which is just prior to the kickoff of the 1st playoff game).
2. Any pick not submitted on time will result in a 25-point penalty for that game (meaning you will get -25 points for those games).
3. No “partial scores” are to be submitted.  We did have this occur several years ago and it went something like this:  “Chicago 24, SF”.  This will also result in the aforementioned -25 points.

It’s shaping up to be another great year, with maybe 11 or 12 teams thinking they have the inside track on winning the Super Bowl.  The highly-anticipated Commish’s expert in-depth analysis and predictions for each game starts below.  Use this information wisely to solidify your thoughts before submitting your picks.

(Re)Pete the Terp currently holds the trophy and has told me that he has full intentions of a 3-Pete (now, that’s a “Super Bowl-ed” statement!).

With 7 participants, will it be another record-setting year for points (can you believe Comeback Kid surpassed 1,000 points with an 11-0 record and LOST by almost 250 points last year?)

WILDCARD WEEKEND PREDICTIONS

Before launching into my predictions for the WildCard Weekend games, I offer a few observations of interest:

• Congrats to the Buffalo Bills for ending the longest (19 years) NFL playoff drought. I’m sure their presence will alter a few selections this weekend.  Kudo’s, as well, to the Jacksonville Jaguars, who last participated in the post season in 2008.  They face off this weekend in the Cobwebs Bowl…
• The Minnesota Vikings (#2 NFC seed) have a legitimate chance of making the Super Bowl, which would give them the first ever home field game in Super Bowl history.
• The top 2 seeds in the AFC and the NFC have identical records of 13-3, surpassing the 12-4 records of the 2015 teams (New England, Green Bay, Seattle and Denver).
• Pete the Terp is the current holder of the HSBT Trophy and has had it in his possession for 2 years! Will this year be our first “3-Pete” season?  With his beloved Ravens “ouch” of the playoffs, he will not be distracted by them (of note – both of Pete the Terp’s HSBT Trophy wins did not include the Ravens in the playoffs).

 Also, some interesting stats on the NFL this season:

• The Seahawks (who missed the playoffs for the first time since 2011) rushed for zero (that’s right, a big goose-egg) yards when inside the 10-yard line. QB Russell Wilson led the league with 34 TD passes, 19 of them coming in the 4^th quarter (a league record)
• A 40-year old QB in the northeast US led the league in passing yards and was 3^rd in QB rating and TD’s – he will most likely be the league’s MVP
• The Browns (they of the “perfect season”), tied the all-time record for turnover differential (minus 28)
• The Saints dynamic duo at RB each reached 1,500 yards from scrimmage – the 1^st time this has ever happened
• On offense, NFL teams scored 1,121 TD’s – the lowest in the league in 11 years
• Colin Kaepernick is still unemployed by the NFL

Put on those comfy and warm game outfits on, grab a bite (or 2), get a few cold one’s out of the refrigerator and let’s get ready for some football!!  The NFL playoffs that culminate in Super Bowl 52 start this weekend!  Given the arctic blast that has covered most of the US in the past few weeks, these 4 games will be played in tropical climates compared to next weekend’s lineup (outdoor games in New England, Pittsburgh and Philly).

As mentioned earlier, the trophy resides on the fireplace mantle of Pete the Terp’s home in the northern suburbs of Baltimore.  And he’s very confident that a “3-Pete” is in order.  We spoke with him on the phone earlier this week (he’s still recuperating from the Ravens loss to the Bagels last weekend), and he offered “It’s been great seeing the HSBT Trophy every day for the past 2 years and I’m supremely confident that it will be here for a long to come.  I’ve got this system figured out, and I have great advice and analysis from The Commish to solidify my picks for each and every game.  He’s right on almost 100% of the time!  While I’m saddened that my Ravens are not participating in the post-season, I will be rooting for and predicting the Bills to go all the way!”

One participant is looking for his first trophy victory – needless to say, he will not have to worry about his favorite 0-16 team in the playoffs.  3 continue to look for trophy #7.  Who will win this year?  We’re not telling at this point, but let’s get to the eagerly awaited predictions from the desk of The Commish.

#5 Tennessee Titans (9-7) @ #4 Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)
The last Chief playoff win was in 1994.  ‘Nuff said.  The last Titan playoff win (and appearance) was in 2004.  Both teams underachieved this season, and both head coaches are in the hot seat, with the loser most likely joining the ranks of the unemployed.

The Chiefs are out for revenge from their home playoff loss to the Steelers last year.  Rookie RB Kareem Hunt is the featured player (and will be going against the worst run D in the league) and QB Alex Smith (the league’s top passer with a 104.7 rating) had another terrific, but not flashy year.  WR Tyreek Hill and super TE Travis Kelce should be unstoppable, as well.

The Titans were OK on the road this year (3-5), and QB Marcus Mariota always has some trick plays up his sleeve.  In the end, however, it won’t be enough in the super-loud Arrowhead Stadium.

No music in The Music City, and the better coach with a better offense wins on the home turf
Chiefs 31, Titans 16

#6 Atlanta Falcons (10-6) @ #3 LA Rams (11-5)
The last time the Falcons were in the playoffs, they lost the Super Bowl…  The last time the Rams (St. Louis) were in the playoffs was 2005.  The defending NFC champs have a real tester on the road to open the playoffs.  How jittery will the Rams be?

The Falcons were not as exciting as last year’s version (almost the same personnel), and are playoff tested (i.e., they know how to win in the playoffs, as well as lose – remember the meltdown at home vs. the 49ers in the 2013 NFC Championship?)

The Rams will need to wait one more year…
Falcons 33, Rams 27

#6 Buffalo Bills (9-7) @ #3 Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6)
Is this the Revenge Bowl for the Bills, who are in the post season for the 1^st time since the 20^th century?  Will the Jaguar ship will be “Marroned” and allow the Bills to roll on face the Patriots next weekend?  The last time the Jags were in the playoffs (2008) is the last time they had a winning record.

The Bills front office continues to shower the Cincinnati Bengals with weekly supplies of Buffalo Wings to thank them for that last minute TD that eliminated the Ravens and allowed the Bills slide into the post-season.  We will presume QB Tyrod Taylor will be under center for Buffalo in this one, but maybe they will feel better with backup Nate Peterman (in his last outing he fired off 4 or 5 INT’s in one half).

Former Bills Head Coach Doug Marrone is leading the upstart Jags, who feature very little on offense (good RB in Fournette, but their #1 WR, former Bill Marqise Lee, might be out) but a stern D.  Offsetting that top-ranked D will be their QB, Blake Bortles (who has thrown the most TD’s in the league since his rookie season in 2014 – 64).

This game will hinge on whether or not Bills RB LeSean McCoy can play and how Bortles handles the playoff environment.  If not, it will be a long day for the Bills, unless they can muster up some turnover points (can you spell INT?) with their reengineered D.

I smell an upset (along with the scent of Wings that were not sent to Andy Dalton…)
Bills 20, Jags 17

#5 Carolina Panthers (11-5) @ #4 New Orleans Saints (11-5)
The Panthers suffered through a year with higher expectations and the Saints are just happy to be in the playoffs.  The Panthers are looking to return to the Super Bowl, where they were embarrassed in 2016 by the underdog Broncos.  The Saints won SB44 in 2010.  The Saints won meetings earlier this season.  The Panthers love to blitz (44% of the time in 2017), but Saints QB Drew Brees completes 70% against that D.

Not only because the Saints are at home, but they have a better QB

Saints 30, Panthers 23

Until I publish my WildCard Weekend update next week, I remain,

The Commish