First – please be sure to also submit your Super Bowl Bonus Pick before kickoff this Saturday afternoon.  It’s worth 100 points if you can pick the SB winner (it’s happened 40 times in HSBT history, 7 of which were last year).  Second – thanks to all Participants for getting their scores submitted properly and on-time last week!  Let’s keep it up this weekend.  Remember – all 4 game predictions must be submitted no later than 4:30pm on Saturday.

It’s shaping up to be a great football weekend with match-up questions, a common theme and finger-licking promise in almost every game.  Hopefully, the weather will not come into play in Philly, New England and Pittsburgh.  But, hey, it’s January in the northeast.  Let’s get right to The Commish’s expert analysis and predictions (do not worry – if you have already submitted your picks, you can re-submit them after reading this insider information).  Be confident that the behind-the-scenes work that goes on every week here at the NFL Offices will pay you BIG dividends in your quest for the coveted HSBT.  Just follow the predictions below and feel confident that this is as good as it gets!

Atlanta Falcons (11-6) @ Philadelphia Eagles (13-3)
The Eagles 7-1 at home, with their only loss in Week 17 when many starters were being rested.  Too bad QB Carson Went(z) away on the IR, but the ever incapable Nick Foles (playoff QB’s with 3 or fewer regular season starts have gone 0-10 in the playoffs since 1998) will be behind center.  Atlanta QB Matt Ryan has a passer rating over 100 in last 5 playoff games.  A newbie vs. a veteran at QB.  Falcons playing their best football of the season and the Eagles are not.

Atlanta is marching towards Sherman (or is it the other way??)
Falcons 29, Eagles 23

Tennessee Titans (10-7) @ New England Patriots (13-3)
The Patriots are 17-3 (85%) in home playoff games.  This will be Belichick’s 37^th career playoff game – most in NFL history, and he holds the record for most wins (26) and SB’s (5) by a head coach.  QB’s making their 1^st or 2^nd playoff start (welcome to Foxboro, Marcus) vs. New England are 0-7.  Another newbie vs. a veteran at QB.

Are you betting against Belichick and Brady?  And don’t bet on another Mariota to Mariota TD pass.
Patriots 37, (Remember the) Titans 16

Jacksonville Jaguars (11-6) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (13-3)
The Steelers have won 11 straight, with their last loss in Week 5 vs. Jags in Pittsburgh.  It took 5 Big Ben picks.  Jacksonville just happens to be the only team in NFL history to beat the Steelers twice in the same season (2007).  Hmm…  Will this be the 2^nd time?

Will Steelers All-World WR Antonio Brown be available and at full strength?  Big Ben might be the best QB in the playoffs right now.  Antonio Brown and fellow WR JuJu(bees) Smith-Schuster combined for 2,450 receiving yards, but the Jag CB’s allowed a 40.2 passer rating (league best by a mile).  Big Ben is 1-3 in games vs. the #1 pass defense (Jags) with 4 TD’s and 11 picks.  Can the Jags offense muster up more than last week’s paltry display of 13 points?

Close until the veteran QB delivers the punch in the 4^th quarter
Steelers 23, Jags 13

New Orleans Saints (12-5) @ Minnesota Vikings (13-3)
#2 total offense vs #1 total defense.  Something’s gotta give.  Defenses have won 6 of those 7 playoff matchups – the only exception is the 1994 NFC Championship Game, when the 49er’s beat Dallas.  Another playoff newbie in Minnesota (this is becoming a common theme).  The difference will be Saints RB tandem Kamaragram…

New Orleans is also marching towards a matchup vs. Atlanta in our weekend upset special
Saints 24, Vikings 23

As I mentioned last week, in this our 3oth Anniversary HSBT season, we’ll take a look back at 10, 20 and 30 years ago:

10 Years Ago (2008)
Comeback Kid was on IR (the first of 2 consecutive years) for the 2008 HSBT.  Jacksonville beat Pittsburgh in Steeltown in the Wild Card round (will this year be a repeat?).  The Giants won an exciting SB, edging out the 18-0 Patriots (Brady had 50 TD passes that season) marked by the famous David Tyree helmet catch late in the 4^th quarter.  Ben the Butler held the lead thru the Wild Card Weekend, Divisional Playoff and Conference Championship weeks, but HenricoFiveOh won his 5^th trophy (with a 6-5 record), edging Buffalo Bill by 128 points.

I’ll have the weekend wrap-up, game analysis and HSBT update available early next week.  Looking forward to 16 more hours of NFL playoffs this weekend!!

Until then, I remain
~~ The Commish