Participants,

It’s that time again and here we go for the start of season 32 in the Hewes Super Bowl Trophy competition (“It’s the most wonderful time of the year”, according to Andy Williams and his terrific holiday classic)!  The website has been updated with Cumulative Stats and Participant profiles, and The Commish will have the live scoring up and running beginning this Saturday afternoon!  Before digging into the analytics and scores for this weekend, just a couple reminders:

• Your picks for all 4 Wild Card games must be submitted no later than 4:30pm EST on Saturday.  The Countdown Timer on the right side of our website (www.hewessbt.com) is tracking this for you.
• All picks must be submitted using the Submit Picks tab on the website.  Everyone has done this quite well in the past, so keep up the good work!

Let’s take a look at the 4 games this weekend.

#5 Buffalo Bills (10-6) @ #4 Houston Oilers (10-6)
The mere presence of the Bills in the playoffs will create internal prediction conflicts for several participants who have strong allegiances to the western New York team.  While the offense has shown some promise, it has mostly sputtered like a un-maintained ’67 Chevy with less than 2 miles of gas left in the tank.  When Bills QB Josh Allen runs more than 7 times in a game, the Bills are 9-2.  But the Houston D is relatively weak (even with the return of JJ Watt), so All-en may not need to be All-in on the run.

The Texans are led by QB Deshaun (Elementary, my dear) Watson and their home field advantage.  The big question for the Texans is Will Fuller be 100%?  When he is, the offense can put up points rather quickly, but the Bills D led the league is not allowing big (more than 30 yards) plays.  When he’s not playing, the offense is average at best.  The Oilers D can be exploited, but can Bills find a way to do that?

While the Texans are favored due to the home field advantage, my stats guys tell me this will be an upset that puts the other playoff teams on notice.  The Bills first playoff win in 25 years…

Buffalo 26, Houston 17

#6 Tennessee Titans (9-7) @ #3 New England Patriots (12-4)
OK, so when was the last time the Patriots had to play in the Wild Card Round?  (Hint: it was 2010).  Seems like they always have a Bye…   Tennessee was the last team to make the playoffs and have been a resurgent team ever since promoting Ryan Tannehill to QB for last half of the season.  Titan RB Derrick Henry led the league in rushing and can easily rush for 200 yards in any given game.  The Titans also sport one of the best defensive backfields in the league, so added pressure will be put on Patriots QB Brady (he is SO over-the-hill, right??).

Meanwhile in the land of Patriots-gate, several chinks in the championship armor have surfaced this season.  12-4?  How despicable!  No Gronk, a poor rushing game, a variety of WR’s with average performances (except for the always-present Edelman), and woeful kickers after their star went on IR.  No way these guys can win a playoff game, right?  All this in spite of having the best D in the league this season.

I know a lot of folks are getting a little tired of New England in the playoffs, but you’ll need to wait at least another week.  Look for at least 4 missed FG’s in this one.

New England 29, Tennessee 16

#6 Minnesota Vikings (10-6) @ #3 New Orleans Saints (13-3)
Day 2 of the weekend begins with the Saints trying to forget their disappointing exit from the playoffs (and Super Bowl) the last 2 seasons.  The Vikings haven’t won a road playoff game since the 20th century (was Fran Tarkenton the QB?).  The Viking offense is starting get back to healthy, but it may not be enough to play catch up to the Saints.  QB Kirk Cousins has had huge games, but noticeably falters in prime time and the spotlight.  That will have to change if Minnesota plans to move on.  Their once vaunted D looks more like swiss cheese, so Saints QB Drew may put up 5 or 6 TD passes in a Brees (think 28-0 at half).

So, Saints WR Michael Thomas caught a record 150 passes this year and was targeted more than 120 times ahead of the Saints #2 WR (whomever that is).  Get used to the Brees to Thomas connection for at least 15 catches and a pair of TD’s.   Who cares how good or bad your D is if you put up 46 points, right?  Well, they did that late in the season and ended losing to the 49ers – at home.

Look for no missed FG’s in this one and let “The Saints go marching on”

New Orleans 31, Minnesota 27

#5 Seattle Seahawks (11-5) @ #4 Philadelphia Eagles (9-7)
We had an upset at the start of the weekend, so we might as well finish the weekend with another.  The Seahawks have not looked very impressive over the last several weeks and could have should have outright won a Bye this weekend.  The Eagles won their division by the process of elimination (and winning their last 4 games) – they were the best of a horrible group of 4 teams.

Seahawk QB Russell Wilson has been playing at an MVP-level this season, in spite of losing all known RB’s on the roster.  Hence, Beast Mode II.  The Seahawk D will need to step it up and put more pressure on Eagle QB Carson Wentz if they want to play next weekend.

Meanwhile, the Eagles starting roster looks more like the pre-season than the post-season roster, with all the injuries.  Every starting WR from earlier in the season is on IR and star TE Zach Ertz is at full health, with the “minor” exception of a bad back, lacerated kidney and ankle problems.

The underdog Eagles will find a way to play next weekend, in spite of the injuries.  Beast Mode will turn into Bust Mode for Seattle, unfortunately.

Philadelphia 20, Seattle 17

All the best to the Participants as they grapple to win the trophy from 7-time winner, HenricoFiveOh.  I’ll have my usual post-game wrap-up report to everyone early next week.  Until then, get those chores done in time for the 4:30 game on Saturday, kick back in your favorite chair, have a cold beverage (or 2…) and enjoy the games!

THE Commish