HSBT

In a stunning come from behind win, Henrico FiveOh captured his 7th HSBT Trophy with a convincing 409-point victory over Pete the Terp in SB LIII.  Fighting through the massive on-field crowd immediately following the Patriots 13-3 yawner over the LA Rams, we were able to briefly talk with Henrico FiveOh about his victory.  “This is amazing.  It’s been a long 7 years since my last Trophy win and it just goes to show that having the lowest variance in the Super Bowl game will lead to victory!  I knew the game would be a low-scoring affair, so I submitted my game pick (Patriots, 17-14) accordingly.  7 trophies is now the record, right?  To all you other wannabe’s, you’ll have to wait until next year.  I’ll be anxiously waiting for JTB to update the trophy and mail it to me.”

HSBT Wrap-Up
Going into Sunday’s tilt, it looked like Greg the Great was on the verge of claiming his 7th trophy, but things did not work out as planned for anyone (except Henrico FiveOh).  Final point totals and finish for all participants:

• Henrico FiveOh – 1,025 points (his all-time best), aided by a HSBT record 684 points in the Super Bowl.
• Pete the Terp – 616 points, good for the silver medal
• Greg the Great – 598 points, and along with Pete the Terp the only ones with a winning record (6-5)
• Comeback Kid – 537 points and just missing the medals…
• Buffalo Bill – 449 points and 14 years without seeing the trophy (but he lives close to Henrico FiveOh, so maybe he be able to view it)
• 2019 Winner – 429 points in a disappointing season
• JTB – 392 points and on the opposite end of the standings this season
• Ben the Butler – on IR during the playoffs, and hopefully recovery is going smoothly and on schedule

Super Bowl Game Summary
Was this game going to be a repeat of the famous 0-0 tie between Harvard and Yale in 1925?  It sure seemed that way mid-way through the 3rd quarter.  Did Todd Gurley suit up for the Rams?  He was their offensive catalyst all season and was deemed to be healthy.  Jared Goff proved he was a 24-year old 1st time SB QB.  And Tom Brady proved that he was a 41-year old 6-time SB winner.  The defenses were smothering most of the game and fortunately there was not a controversial call by the zebras.  Did the Patriots bring only 1 wide receiver?  What other WR besides Edelman caught a pass from #12?  This game will not go down as a classic in the annals of the Super Bowl.

Note from The Commish
Thanks to all participants for successfully submitting your game scores on time every weekend.  As I was out of town for the 2nd half of January, I was not able to prepare my usual analysis and recap for the Conference Championship games.  Nonetheless, that did not hamper Henrico FiveOh!  I’ll be working on updating all the HSBT stats and will send everyone a summary over the next few months.

HSBT Trophy Expansion
As mentioned several months ago, the HSBT Trophy plaque is filled and we need to make room for Henrico FiveOh’s name.  The options I presented were 1) add another (larger) wood base and keep all the plaques on the front side, and 2) add a plaque to either the left or right side of the current base and begin to fill that up (the current plaque can hold about 18 years).  I did receive some feedback from participants and have decided to take this course of action.  We will move the current plaque to the left side of the trophy and add a new plaque on the front.  When the new plaque is filled up (around the year 2037), it will be moved to the right side of the trophy and another new plaque will added to the front.  When that is filled up (around the year 2055), we will need to figure out what to do…  Thus, the HSBT Trophy will have a wrap-around look, similar to the smaller and less important Stanley Cup.

I will work with JTB to make sure these changes are implemented and that the trophy is mailed to Henrico FiveOh in a timely manner.

Again, congrats to Henrico FiveOh on his win and have a good off-season.  The NFL playoffs start in 11 short months…

Until then, I am
~~ The Commish

Participants,

My apologies for not getting back with you with my customary Conference Championship Wrap-Up communication.  I’ve been in western New York the last 3 weeks assisting our former HSBT Auditor (wife of The Englishman) in her move to a retirement community nearby.  However – those were 2 of the very best games in recent memory!  2 OT thrillers.  Is another one on the way tomorrow in Atlanta?

Current HSBT Standings
It’s a very tight race and everyone still has a legitimate chance to capture the coveted trophy!

• Greg the Great – 490 points, with a league-leading 226 points in the Conference Championship games (and the only participant with a shot at the 100 bonus points)
• Pete the Terp – 456 points, with a combined variance of 17 in the Conference Championship games
• JTB – 356 points (his second goose-egg of the season hurt)
• Buffalo Bill – 349 points (and the 2nd most points in the Conference Championship games)
• Henrico FiveOh – 341 points
• Comeback Kid – 309 points
• 2019 Winner – 301 points

SB LIII Analysis and Prediction
Are we all excited that the Patriots are in the Super Bowl once again?  I know the western NY contingent is not.  Are we going to replay the Rams vs Saints game, due to that super-controversial pass interference play at the very end that was not reviewed?  Yikes!

Tom Brady vs Jared Goff.  Hmm.  Gotta go with the GOAT.
LA Rams D vs New England’s multi-faceted offense.  Gotta go with the Rams.
LA Rams multi-faceted offense vs  New England’s D.  Gotta go with the Rams.
Special Teams.  Gotta go with the Rams.
Coaching.  As much as you want to root for Sean McVay and root against Bill Belichick, gotta go with the Patriots.
Final Score…  Gotta go with the Rams.

LA Rams 26, New England Patriots 23 (in the 3rd consecutive OT thriller!)

Good luck to all Participants and get in that comfy spot around 6:30pm Eastern time!

Until then, I remain
~~ The Commish

Participants,
It was the best of times (for the home teams), it was the worst of times (for the road teams).  3 of the 4 games this past weekend were early yawners, with all the excitement left for the Sunday afternoon rematch of a Week 11 blowout.  Let’s get to the results.

Kansas City Chiefs 31, Indianapolis Colts 13
As hard as it is to beat the Chiefs in KC, when you amass a paltry 18 yards of offense in the 1^st half, you just made the job significantly harder.  Colts QB Andrew ran out of Luck and his counterpart Patrick Mahomes was throwing missiles all afternoon, as the Chiefs put this one away midway thru the 2^nd quarter.  ‘Nuff said.  There will be one more home game at Arrowhead this season.

Buffalo Bill and JTB shared honors with 67 points each while 2019 Winner posted an uncommon goose-egg.

LA Rams 30, Jerry’s Team 22
Almost a repeat of the earlier game on Saturday, with the home team getting off to a big lead (20-7 at the half) and holding on.  This game wasn’t as close as the score would suggest, and the Rams had all their weapons on display. Rams back-up RB CJ Anderson went over 100 yards, while the Cowboys Zeke Elliott was held in check all evening by a disruptive defense.

Pete the Terp took HSBT honors in this one with 79 points.

New England Patriots 41, San Diego Chargers significantly less
The Surgeon General himself, Tom Brady, was on full display in this lopsided win as the Patriots jumped out to 35-7 lead at the half.  The Bolts were unable to alter their defensive strategy and consistently gave up big plays in their gaping holes with that zone scheme.  They were literally carved up like a nice Thanksgiving turkey.  That plane ride back to California had to be a very long trip.

Pete the Terp again took game honors with 75 points, while Buffalo Bill and 2019 Winner each got their 2^nd goose-egg of the playoffs.

New Orleans Saints 20, Philadelphia Eagles 14
Finally, a game worth watching past midway thru the 2^nd quarter.  The heavily favored Saints found themselves down 14-0 early and had to fight back and finally take the lead late in the 4^th quarter.  Oh, that pass that fell thru the hands of Eagles WR Alshon Jeffery on the final drive.  Could have easily been Nick Foles 2^nd magic trick of the playoffs.  The road the SB53 goes marching thru New Orleans.

Henrico FiveOh and Greg the Great earned 89 points apiece.

HSBT Standings
With only 3 games to go (but with 55% of the points on the table), we find Pete the Terp in a very familiar (but extremely close) place that closely resembles his back to back victory seasons in 2016 and 2017.  Everyone remains in solid contention, which only adds to the pressure of this upcoming weekend.

• Pete the Terp – 324 points, after going 4-0 over the weekend
• Henrico FiveOh – 282 points
• JTB – 275 points
• Greg the Great – 264 points
• Comeback Kid – 255 points
• 2019 Winner – 211 points
• Buffalo Bill – 203 points

I’ll be travelling to the Buffalo area for the next few weeks, but plan to remain fully active with the duties of The Commish.  Game analysis and predictions for the 2 Conference Championship games will be coming out later this week.  Start your work early in preparation for these games, as less than 125 points separates the leader from current 7^th place position holder.

Until then, I remain
~~ The Commish

Participants,

Now that we’re down to the Elite 8, don’t forget to also submit your Super Bowl Bonus pick along with your 4 game scores before the 4:30pm Eastern Time kickoff on Saturday.  That’s 100 points you could leave on the table, and it’s shaping up to be a close race for the coveted Trophy – so every point is going to matter!

The Data Analytics team here at NFL Headquarters has been running models and scenarios since Sunday night and has advised me that this will be called “Upset Weekend.”  Here is a summary of what you can expect in the Divisional Games this weekend:

#6 Indianapolis Colts (11-6) @ #1 Kansas City Chiefs (12-4)
Revenge time?  Remember the Colts comeback from a 28-point deficit in the 3^rd quarter 5 years ago in their Wild Card Weekend tussle against the Chiefs?  Is another home playoff loss in store for the Chiefs?  The Titans (last year) and Steelers (2 years ago) are painful reminders.  In fact, the Chiefs have lost 6 straight home playoff games, dating back to 1995.  The Chiefs started the season red-hot, then cooled down (3-3) in their last 6 games. Ever since RB Kareem Hunt was released, the offense has sputtered.  Meanwhile, the Colts are 10-1 in their last 11 games.  Head Coach Frank Reich is pushing all the right buttons and the next one he will hit is for a ticket to the AFC Championship game next weekend!

Starting off the weekend with another road team Boom!
Indianapolis Colts 30, Kansas City Chiefs 27

 #4 Dallas Cowboys (11-6) @ #1 LA Rams (13-3)
Who’s better – Elliott or Gurley?  We’ll find out during the Saturday Night Live thriller from LA.  America’s Team relies heavily on Zeke, while the Rams have more weapons at their disposal.  As we saw last weekend, good D should overcome good O.  Gotta like Dak to outperform Jared in what could be a slippery field again (early evening dew – like last year, remember?).

Home teams go 0-2 on Saturday…
America’s Team 26, LA Rams 24

#5 The Other LA (13-4) @ #2 New England Patriots (11-5)
The 3^rd consecutive road team win (or home team loss, whichever you prefer) will be witnessed in Foxboro as the super-Charged Bolts pull out all the muskets early to shoot down the heavily favored Patriots in what will be written up as one of the great upsets in NFL Playoff history.  Down 21-0 after the 1^st quarter, the outmatched Patriots will never get it going and QB Tom Brady will go down with a knee injury in their 1^st home loss of the season.  Patriot Head Coach Belichick will have less to say than his normal nothing after this surprising loss.

All Bills fans are smiling…
San Diego Chargers 41, New England Patriots 16

#6 Philadelphia Eagles (10-7) @ #1 New Orleans Saints (13-3)
Finally, a home team victory this weekend.  Whew.  Can you say “repeat” of the Week 11 Saint drubbing of the flight-less Eagles, 41-7?  Don’t, because it probably won’t be another blowout, but you can count on QB Brees to heat up some Cajun cooking (ingredients include Kamara sauce, Ingram powder and Thomas juice) and toss at least 3 TD passes against a highly vulnerable Eagles D backfield.  Nick Foles will put up another gallant effort, but it will be too little.

Please pass the Tabasco…
New Orleans Saints 37, Philadelphia Eagles 20

As a reminder – your picks for all 4 weekend games, plus your Super Bowl Bonus pick, are due no later than 4:30pm Eastern Time this Saturday.

Greg the Great will be manning the real-time scoring tracker on Saturday night.  It’s gonna be another wild weekend.

~~ The Commish

Participants,

The Wild Card Weekend lived up to its name.  In spades…  3 road team wins, da Double Doink in Chicago, the callback of a 102-yard fumble return for a TD that would have put the Ravens ahead late in the 4^th quarter, and so many other close calls on reviews of key plays that it left your head spinning.

Let’s get to the results.

Indianapolis Colts 21, Houston Texans 7
How did the Texans get to the playoffs with an O line this poor?  No wonder why QB DeShaun Watson had over 500 yards rushing in the regular season.  I’d call it survival.  This one was basically over after the 1^st quarter.  Another famous snoozer in Houston.  Watch out for the Colts, as they appear to be a SB contender and are clicking on all cylinders on both sides of the ball.  QB Andrew didn’t need any Luck to easily pull this one out.  With a healthy T.Y. (Paris) Hilton, this group seems to be destined!

JTB begins his trophy defense with the top point total of 36 in this game, while Greg the Great quickly collects the 1^st goose-egg of the playoffs.

America’s Team 24, Seattle’s Team 22
Did Dak Prescott really outplay Russell Wilson?  That’s not supposed to happen in the playoffs.  The difference was the Dallas D, with a sprinkling of Zeke (137 rushing yards).  Losing K Janikowski (doesn’t he look to be in good shape??) at the end of the 1^st half created a different Seahawk strategy and was a larger factor than one would believe.  Too little, too late for the Seahawks.

Greg the Great reverses his fortunes from the earlier game and, along with 2019 Winner, earns the top points with a paltry 30.

Bolts 23, Baltimore Colts/Ravens 17
The Sunday games started with a cliff hanger.  San Diego QB Rivers was delivering his own thunder and lightning all afternoon, while the Ravens rookie QB Jackson looked like, well, a rookie (until that 4^th quarter surge).  Were you surprised Flacco didn’t come in to try and rescue the day?  Was Bolts RB Gordon really down inside the 1 before he fumbled (which was scooped up for a TD by the Ravens)?  Like the Colts, the Chargers are the real deal, particularly on D.  And – like the Seahawks – too little, too late.  That missed FG by Ravens K Tucker had a dramatic impact on the final Raven drive, when they needed a TD instead of a FG…  Chargers stay undefeated this season in games where they had to board an airplane.

Henrico FiveOh comes to life with a 62-point effort (outscoring all other participants combined), while Buffalo Bill posts his 1^st goose-egg.  Pete the Terp (I believe a Ravens fan when his beloved Bills aren’t playing) smartly picked a low scoring game, but unfortunately picked the wrong team to win.

Philadelphia Eagles 16, Chicago Bears 15
What a way to end Wild Card Weekend!  A seesaw battle that unfortunately ended with da Double Doink by Bears K Parkey (formerly of the Eagles).  Apparently he’s practiced these, as he hit the upright 5 times during the regular season.  Do you have any fingernails left?  Is Nick Foles (Mr. Playoffs) going to do it again?

Everyone picked da Bears to win and Pete the Terp bounces back nicely with a 64-point effort (tops for the weekend), while JTB keeps the goose-egg party alive and well.

HSBT Standings
So, with the 1^st 4 games on the books (and 7 to go), below are your HSBT standings.  It was an overall miserable weekend for picking the game winners – not 1 participant could get 2 of the 4 Wild Card games correct (1^st time in the 31-year history of the HSBT!):

• Henrico FiveOh is in the lead with 100 points – the lowest lead point total since 2005 (when there were only 5 participants)
• Pete the Terp – 96 points and a half a nose behind the leader
• Greg the Great – 93 points and half a nose behind Pete the Terp
• 2019 Winner – 81 points and just starting to warm up
• JTB – 56 points and in better position than he was at this juncture a year ago
• Comeback Kid – 52 points and a firm hold on 6^th place right now
• Buffalo Bill – 32 points, with an 0-4 record, so better days are definitely ahead

Stay tuned for my analysis and predictions going into the Divisional Games this coming weekend.  This is the weekend where we have had the most points scored (over 31%), so be sure you do your homework and have your pencils sharpened.  The games are shaping up to be classics!

Have a good week
~~ The Commish