HSBT

Participants,

Once again, thanks for getting those picks submitted on time for all 4 games last weekend.  Now – let’s make it the trifecta and get both scores for the Conference Championship games sent in by 3:00pm EST this Sunday.  It’s really shaping up to be 2 terrific games, with the winners facing off in SB 52.

AFC Championship
Jacksonville Jaguars (12-6) @ New England Patriots (14-3)
For the 7^th consecutive year, the Patriots are playing in this game.  The Jaguars are in the playoffs for the first time in 10 years.  Interestingly, they played each other that year (2008) in the Divisional Playoffs and the 16-0 Pats won at home, 31-20, on their way to SB 42 (and that heart-pumping loss to the New York Football Giants).  The Jags starting QB will be playing in his 3^rd career playoff game and we are still adding up how many playoff games Giselle’s husband has played in.  The weather forecast for kickoff calls for balmy (30 degrees) and breezy (not Drew) conditions.

The biggest pre-game talk might be New England QB Tom Brady’s “jammed right hand” (no, it has nothing to do with raspberry preserves…) that was injured in practice earlier this week.  He was later seen, however, licking his wounds with a piece of toast in his left hand.  But he is still not practicing…

The surprising Jags have scored 30 or more points in 5 of their last 7 games, so last week’s explosion in Steeltown should come as no surprise.  Jags QB Blake Bortles can beat you in the air and on his feet (a feet that the NE QB cannot match…).  Their top-rated D can be staunch or raunch(y), as evidenced in last week’s game, where they gave up 42 points.  Bet on the former this Sunday.

Don’t need to say anything about the Patriots.  They just show up and win, and win, and win.  Which Bortles is going to show up?  The home field will make the difference, and it will come down to a big play in the 4^th quarter (another heart-thumping game, for sure).  Will the Pats Dion Lewis remain the hottest RB, as he has been over the last 4 weeks?  Do you really think Jags CB Jalen Ramsey can cover Gronk all day?  He said he can, so let us see…

Patriots 33, Jaguars 20

NFC Championship
Minnesota Vikings (14-3) @ Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
Factoid – Both Texas-born starting QB’s for this game played on the same defunct NFL team.  Both are undefeated in their playoff careers as starters.  This is the first time since 1970 that the starting QB’s weren’t the starters for their teams in Week 1.  The weather forecast in the home of original Cheesesteak is downright tropical at 37 degrees for kickoff and a moderate breeze (watch those palm trees sway).  The Vikes will play to get into their 5^th SB (amazingly, they are 0-4 in the SB – isn’t there another team with a similar record?) and the Eagles are looking to play in their 3^rd SB and for the first time since 2005 (when they lost to the Patriots – is a repeat in the future?).

The Vikes have the best WR tandem in the NFL (Diggs and Thielen) and will create havoc for the modest Patriot DB’s.  Not sure they lost any 50-50 balls in that win over the Aints last weekend.

Will the Minnesota Miracle continue this weekend or will the #1 seeded home field underdog Eagles (again) be headed to Minnesota for another game in 2 weeks?  Can the Vikes O-Line control the Eagles powerful front 7?  Case (Keenum) closed as the Vikings will become the first team to play in the Super Bowl on their home field.  Another nail-biter that will be decided in OT…

Vikes 30, Eagles 27

HSBT History
20 Years Ago (1998)
This was the 4^th year of the expanded 6-team format.  Greg the Great won the trophy (his 2^nd), overcoming a 191-point deficit in Super Bowl XXXII (San Diego was the host city) – so, if you think you have no chance of winning the trophy this year, think again…  Buffalo Bill held what seemed to be an insurmountable lead going into the final game, only to end up in 5^th place overall.  He led after the Wild Card Weekend games (with the highest point total in 3 of the 4 games), the Divisional Playoff and Conference Championship games.  League founder, The Englishman, ended up in 2^nd with 502 points.

As always, I will have real-time scoring updates available thru our website in the “Standings” tab at the top.  Live thru the agony and ecstasy of each game…  Almost 60% of our historical points are available in the next 3 games, so make your picks wisely.  Nobody is mathematically eliminated at this point.

I’ll provide the usual recap and update on the HSBT standings early next week.

Until then, I am
~~ The Commish

Participants,

All I can say is “Wow!!”  3 of the 4 Divisional Playoff games came down to the last play to determine who will move on to their respective Conference Championship games next weekend.  These games were more wild than the Wild Card Weekend games, for sure.  My heart rate has just slowed to 60 BPM (Beats per Minute, and I’ll have more on some acronyms in a bit…).  Let’s get right into the post-game reviews and then the HSBT Standings update.

Philadelphia Eagles 15, Atlanta Falcons 10
Well, Atlanta certainly “fowled” up their chance for a repeat visit to the Super Bowl on Saturday.  The Dirty Birds (remember them?) were de-feathered by the NFC’s #1 seed home underdog (huh?) Philadelphia in the weekend opener.  Early on, it looked like the Falcons were going to pull the “upset,” as the Eagles started the game with a 42-yard penalty, then muffed a punt (did the Rams trade their kick returner to Philly last week?)  Eagles QB Foles looked shaky in the strong winds, but settled down and almost played like his almost MVP season back in 2014.  As the announcers said, “once he establishes the run (which they did nicely with Ajayi), then the RPO will be more effective.”  RPO?  Run Pass Option.  The Eagles D hovered over their prey when they had to.  What where the Falcons thinking of on that last play of the game, which would have sent them to Minnesota next weekend?  That play was easier to read than a children’s book.

And with that, the #1 seeded Eagles will be hosting the NFC Championship game for the 1^st time in 13 years.  And – probably underdogs at home once again.  Bring out those masks!

Greg the Great kicks off the weekend with 141 points and Buffalo Bill collects 102.

Giselle’s Husband 35, Tennessee (Forget the) Titans 14
As suspected, the Patriots dominated this game from start to finish, featuring a balanced attack and 2 RB James White TD’s in the 1^st half.  Titan QB Marcus did not have a TD toss to Mariota, and their D couldn’t keep up with OC Matt Patricia (I wonder what his last name is??) play calling.  We were introduced to another new acronym by the team in the booth – OPI (Offensive Pass Interference).

Patriots in the AFC Championship next weekend (for the 7^th consecutive year), and should be heavy favorites.

Great the Great finishes up a terrific day with 145 more points, and Ben the Butler makes some noise with 117 points.  A 1-day total of 286 points for Greg the Great, a new record for the Divisional Playoffs.

Jacksonville Jaguars (Team #2) 45, Pittsburgh Steelers 42
Who thought there would be 87 points scored in this one?  Much less the Jags putting up 6 TD’s against the Steelers in Steeltown on a cold afternoon.  The Sacksonville D accounted for at least 21 points with a few picks, fumble recoveries and just being a general nuisance to Big Ben all day long.  The plays of the day (until later…) were the 2 (that’s right, 2) 4^th down TD flings by Roethlisberger late in the game.  Can anyone strop Antonio Brown?

Sacksonville off to Foxborough next week.  Which Jags team will show up?  We know which Patriots team will.

JTB earns 172 points, with Ben the Butler having another good game with 88 points.

Minnesota Vikings 29 (23 with 0:01 left in the game), New Orleans 24
This is why they play 60 minutes.  Can’t say that I’ve ever seen a finish like yesterday’s game.  A 61-yard Hail Mary” as the clock struck 0:00 and the Vikes move on.  The Aints shouldda couldda wouldda had this one – until the very last play of the game.  The Yikes were up 17-0 at half and it looked like the Saints season (and maybe Drew Brees’ career as a Saint?) was over.  New Orleans chipped away in the 2^nd half before the Vikings D came back on the field, taking the lead with just under a minute to play.  Break out the beignet’s and start the celebration on Bourbon Street!  Less than a minute later, Hurricane Keenum rumbled thru town and made a mess of everything.

“See ya back in MPLS in 3 weeks, Vikes.”  Did The Commish just make a prediction?

Buffalo Bill collects 113 points in this one, with Greg the Great having second honors with 85 points.

HSBT Standings Update
The trophy competition was just as exciting as the games last weekend.  Fortunately, all picks (including the SB Bonus) were submitted on time.  That’s 2 weeks in a row and let’s keep it going this weekend!

With 3 tiny games left to go, here is where everyone stands at this point.  Historically, only 44% of the total points have been earned, so it’s “game on” for everyone.

And – as a milestone – we have now surpassed the 100,000 point total for the HSBT.  Amazing!

• Greg the Great – 488 points (and the only participant with a winning record at 5-3)
• JTB – 453 points (right on his heels) and finds himself in contention with his Vikes SB Bonus pick
• Buffalo Bill – 380 points (nice 330 point weekend bumps him up to the Bronze medal ranking)
• Ben the Butler – 320 points and itching for the lead
• Pete the Terp – 307 points (and a lackluster 134-popint weekend)
• 2018 Winner – 296 points (has everyone lost sight of him?)
• Comeback Kid – 182 points (and will need a Comeback)
• HenricoFiveOh – 163 points (it will be Boom or Bust picks going forward)

You can plan to look forward to my expert analysis and predictions in advance of the Conference Championship games this coming Sunday afternoon and evening.

Until then, I am
~~ The Commish

First – please be sure to also submit your Super Bowl Bonus Pick before kickoff this Saturday afternoon.  It’s worth 100 points if you can pick the SB winner (it’s happened 40 times in HSBT history, 7 of which were last year).  Second – thanks to all Participants for getting their scores submitted properly and on-time last week!  Let’s keep it up this weekend.  Remember – all 4 game predictions must be submitted no later than 4:30pm on Saturday.

It’s shaping up to be a great football weekend with match-up questions, a common theme and finger-licking promise in almost every game.  Hopefully, the weather will not come into play in Philly, New England and Pittsburgh.  But, hey, it’s January in the northeast.  Let’s get right to The Commish’s expert analysis and predictions (do not worry – if you have already submitted your picks, you can re-submit them after reading this insider information).  Be confident that the behind-the-scenes work that goes on every week here at the NFL Offices will pay you BIG dividends in your quest for the coveted HSBT.  Just follow the predictions below and feel confident that this is as good as it gets!

Atlanta Falcons (11-6) @ Philadelphia Eagles (13-3)
The Eagles 7-1 at home, with their only loss in Week 17 when many starters were being rested.  Too bad QB Carson Went(z) away on the IR, but the ever incapable Nick Foles (playoff QB’s with 3 or fewer regular season starts have gone 0-10 in the playoffs since 1998) will be behind center.  Atlanta QB Matt Ryan has a passer rating over 100 in last 5 playoff games.  A newbie vs. a veteran at QB.  Falcons playing their best football of the season and the Eagles are not.

Atlanta is marching towards Sherman (or is it the other way??)
Falcons 29, Eagles 23

Tennessee Titans (10-7) @ New England Patriots (13-3)
The Patriots are 17-3 (85%) in home playoff games.  This will be Belichick’s 37^th career playoff game – most in NFL history, and he holds the record for most wins (26) and SB’s (5) by a head coach.  QB’s making their 1^st or 2^nd playoff start (welcome to Foxboro, Marcus) vs. New England are 0-7.  Another newbie vs. a veteran at QB.

Are you betting against Belichick and Brady?  And don’t bet on another Mariota to Mariota TD pass.
Patriots 37, (Remember the) Titans 16

Jacksonville Jaguars (11-6) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (13-3)
The Steelers have won 11 straight, with their last loss in Week 5 vs. Jags in Pittsburgh.  It took 5 Big Ben picks.  Jacksonville just happens to be the only team in NFL history to beat the Steelers twice in the same season (2007).  Hmm…  Will this be the 2^nd time?

Will Steelers All-World WR Antonio Brown be available and at full strength?  Big Ben might be the best QB in the playoffs right now.  Antonio Brown and fellow WR JuJu(bees) Smith-Schuster combined for 2,450 receiving yards, but the Jag CB’s allowed a 40.2 passer rating (league best by a mile).  Big Ben is 1-3 in games vs. the #1 pass defense (Jags) with 4 TD’s and 11 picks.  Can the Jags offense muster up more than last week’s paltry display of 13 points?

Close until the veteran QB delivers the punch in the 4^th quarter
Steelers 23, Jags 13

New Orleans Saints (12-5) @ Minnesota Vikings (13-3)
#2 total offense vs #1 total defense.  Something’s gotta give.  Defenses have won 6 of those 7 playoff matchups – the only exception is the 1994 NFC Championship Game, when the 49er’s beat Dallas.  Another playoff newbie in Minnesota (this is becoming a common theme).  The difference will be Saints RB tandem Kamaragram…

New Orleans is also marching towards a matchup vs. Atlanta in our weekend upset special
Saints 24, Vikings 23

As I mentioned last week, in this our 3oth Anniversary HSBT season, we’ll take a look back at 10, 20 and 30 years ago:

10 Years Ago (2008)
Comeback Kid was on IR (the first of 2 consecutive years) for the 2008 HSBT.  Jacksonville beat Pittsburgh in Steeltown in the Wild Card round (will this year be a repeat?).  The Giants won an exciting SB, edging out the 18-0 Patriots (Brady had 50 TD passes that season) marked by the famous David Tyree helmet catch late in the 4^th quarter.  Ben the Butler held the lead thru the Wild Card Weekend, Divisional Playoff and Conference Championship weeks, but HenricoFiveOh won his 5^th trophy (with a 6-5 record), edging Buffalo Bill by 128 points.

I’ll have the weekend wrap-up, game analysis and HSBT update available early next week.  Looking forward to 16 more hours of NFL playoffs this weekend!!

Until then, I remain
~~ The Commish

And then there were 8…  Having just wrapped up the Wild Card Weekend games and eliminating 4 wannabe’s, now we’re down to serious business.  The top seeds will be in action starting this Saturday afternoon and all 4 Divisional Playoff games look to be great matchups.  Here are the Wild Card summaries:

Tennessee Titans 22, Kansas City Chiefs 21
It was truly a Dickens classic – “A Tale of Two Halves.”  The Chiefs (who lost their 6^th straight home playoff game – dating back to 1995) looked to sew up this one up early as they jumped to a 21-3 lead in the 2^nd quarter.  Then their all-world TE Kelce got hurt and it was all-things Titans for the rest of the game.  The obvious highlight was the Titan QB Mariota TD pass to QB Mariota.  Only the 2^nd time in NFL history and the 1^st ever in the playoffs.  Another 2^nd was the 18+ point deficit they overcame to win on the road (the 1^st was the Detroit Lions 61 years ago).  Comeback Kid is the 1^st out of the HSBT gates with 40 points and JTB is at the other end of the spectrum (can you say goose-egg?).

Atlanta Falcons 26, Lost Angeles Rams 13
Who greased up the hands of the Rams kick returner?  He had 2 key miscues that allowed the playoff-experienced Falcons to surprise the super-flat Rams in the Saturday Night Live game.  The Rams were obviously jittery with their 31-year old head coach (league’s youngest) in their 1^st playoff appearance since relocating from St. Louis.

The Falcons (the only repeat NFC playoff team) looked awfully good and contained a high-charged offense all night long.  JTB earns 41 points to erase the “ouch” from the earlier game, as Comeback Kid records his 1^st goose-egg of the playoffs.

Jacksonville Jaguars 10, Buffalo Bills 3
Talk about missed opportunities.  The Bills had their chances against a very good Jags D, but just couldn’t get it past the goal line.  Blake Bortles looked like, well, Blake Bortles.  Highly erratic passing, but he did manage to rush for more yards than pass and those rushing yards all came at key points in the game.  The Bills D was staunch and the offense had some chances but just did not have enough weapons.

The Jags are lucky to win this one and Pete the Terp goes all out with 98 points to take the lead.  2 more goose-eggs are recorded.

New Orleans Saints 31, Carolina Panthers 26
Probably the most exciting of the weekend games.  Saints 39-year old QB Drew Brees has never lost a home playoff game and continued that streak with another masterpiece.  Superb accuracy (23 of 33, which is actually sub-par for him) that reminds you of Blake Bortles – NOT.  How long will the Panthers remember the missed 25-yard FG from Graham Gano, who made 4 of 5 for the day?  That would have changed how the Panthers played the last few minutes.

The Saints go marching in – to Minneapolis.  Pete the Terp (again) along with 2018 Winner take top honors in this one with 40 points each.  Hey, no goose-eggs finally!

HSBT Standings
With 4 of 11 games in the books (only 13% of our total points are amassed during the Wild Card games), here is where things stand in the quest for the coveted HSBT Trophy:

• Pete the Terp – 173 points (and off to a fast start)
• Comeback Kid – 101 points (are you still picking the Bills for the 100 point bonus?)
• JTB – 97 points (a strong start)
• Ben the Butler – 95 points (not feeling the effects of just coming off IR)
• 2018 Winner – 82 points (nicely positioned, as usual)
• Greg the Great – 79 points (the Bills hats and Beef on Weck still did not help)
• Buffalo Bill – 50 points (will look to improve next weekend, or could be facing a tough road)
• HenricoFiveOh – 38 points (plenty of time for this 6-time winner)

Look for my Divisional Playoff analysis and game predictions later in the week.  There will also be a look back at the HSBT in this our 30^th Anniversary season.  Plenty of good reading to come!

Until then, I am
~~ The Commish

Participants,

I have some very good news to share with you.  As communicated yesterday, Ben the Butler was recently placed on IR and would not be available for the 2018 HSBT competition.  I received an email from his doctors late last night and he has been cleared to participate this year!  Welcome Back, Ben the Butler!

Updates to our website will be made today and I look forward to having all 8 participants battling it out for the 2018 HSBT Trophy!

As a reminder – please be sure to submit your picks for all 4 WildCard games by 4:30pm (EST) tomorrow.

~~ The Commish