HSBT

Participants,

Has your heart slowed down yet?  Talk about thrilling finishes on Sunday.  Coulda / shoulda been 2 OT games.  One #1 seed is “one and done” again.  From a historical perspective, the 2 teams that participated in the very 1^st Super Bowl on that date exactly 50 years ago played on Sunday – Kansas City and Green Bay.  The Commish did watch that game, as did a small number of Americans who attended at $12 per seat.  The LA Colosseum  was more than half empty (welcome to town, Chargers!).  It was more of a novelty at that time.  Little did anyone know what it would become…  Ben the Butler gets his weekend picks just in “over” the wire, but the Commish grants a pardon…  Let’s right to the results:

Atlanta 36, Seattle 20
The Sea(ya)hawks should have / could have won this one.  Former Falcon KR Devin Hester, picked up from the “over the hill” rack at Best Buy just a week before the playoffs started, had a 79-yard punt return called back that would have given Seattle the lead and a boost of confidence.  He also had 2 long kickoff returns.  Penalties, all 7 of them seemingly coming at the wrong time, Georgia Doomed the Seahawks all day long.  But give the Falcons credit – they were the better team on the field, with QB Matt Ryan tossing for well over 300 yards and 3 TD’s.  Those 2 Falcon RB’s (Freeman and Coleman) are a load for any defense.  Another scoring drive of over 90 yards for the Falcons, their 11^th this season.  Deservedly, the Falcons are on to the NFC Championship Game for the 2^nd time in the last 5 years.  Is Julio going to be OK?  Home teams are 5-0 this post-season.  Ben the Butler (he of the very late score submission) comes out on top in this one, with a season high 129 points.

New England 34, Houston 16 (No Overtimes)
It was almost a close shave at Gillette Stadium on Saturday night.  Patriots RB Dion (“3-Way”, for you Skyline Chili fans – look it up…) Lewis scored on a kick return (98 yards), by ground and through the air.  Speaking of air, the Patriots had none in the 1^st half, when the Houston D was suffocating.  A lot of credit to that entire group, spearheaded by DE Clowney and LB (No More) Merci-lus.  Deflate-gate described the New England offense through the halfway mark.  Texan QB Brock Osweiler (he of the $72 million contract), however, had the upper hand in this one and held the Texans offense hostage for most of the game.  Patriots coach Bill Belichick is “on to the AFC Championship Game.”  Otherwise, he might get ill if he watches this performance.  When was the last time you saw Tom Brady get smacked around so much?  Home teams are 6-0 this post-season.  A “two-way” tie for points, with HenricoFiveOh and defending champion Pete the Terp each earning 125 points.

Green Bay 34, Dallas 31
… As communicated to you in my Divisional Playoff Round predictions.  SuperMan is no match for Texas kryptonite.  This was the most exciting finish to a playoff game in quite some time.  3 FG’s of 50+ yards in the last 2 minutes.  As white-hot as Packer QB Aaron Rodgers was, K Mason Crosby displayed the ice in his veins, as his game winner went through (just inside the left upright) as the clock struck 0:00.  Nothing more to say about Big D other than they were overconfident and overmatched at the QB position.  Ben the Butler picks up another win.

Pittsburgh 18, Kansas City 16
The heart rate got up over 120 again in this thrilling closer to the weekend.  The Steelers now have 4 official “killer B’s” – QB Ben, WR Brown, RB Bell and K Boswell – who set a playoff record with 6 FG’s.  The Chiefs were just lacking any offense, but came to life in the 4^th quarter to make it close.  That holding penalty on the successful 2-point try at the end was the final arrow for the Chiefs.  Pete the Terp claims his 2^nd weekend win.

So, this is where things stand with 3 games and 56% of the total points on the table for those who heed the Commish’s predictions:

• Pete the Terp – 526 points and going for consecutive trophy victories?
• Ben the Butler – 473 points and another big weekend; picked all 4 games right; will this be his year?
• 2017 Winner – 402 points and liking his chances
• Comeback Kid (with an 8-0 record) – 379 points and as steady as they come
• HenricoFiveOh – 342 points after a much better weekend than last; keeping pace (which is bad news for the other participants)
• Greg the Great – 322 points and will not get any Super Bowl Bonus points; but he has had huge games in the past
• Buffalo Bill – 261 points; those goose-eggs are killers, but there are 3 big games to go
• JTB – 172 points, and we know some interesting picks will be coming

Look for my expert analysis and predictions this weekend.  Picks will be due on Sunday afternoon before the 3:00pm EST kickoff of the NFC Championship game (got that Ben the Butler?)  Study up – this is looking like another close battle for the trophy.

~~ The Commish

First – please be sure to also submit your Super Bowl Bonus Pick before kickoff tomorrow afternoon.  It’s worth 100 points if you can pick the SB winner (it’s happened 33 times in HSBT history).  Second – thanks to all Participants for getting their scores submitted properly and on-time last week!  Let’s keep it up this weekend.

It’s shaping up to be a great football weekend with match-up questions and finger-licking promise in almost every game (we may have a snoozer Saturday night, unless you are a Patriots fan).  We have a weather-related schedule change, but that should not impact much.  Let’s get right to The Commish’s expert analysis and predictions (do not worry – if you have already submitted your picks, you can re-submit them after reading this insider information).  Be confident that the behind-the-scenes work that goes on every week here at the NFL Offices will pay you BIG dividends in your quest for the HSBT.  Just follow the predictions below and feel confident that this is as good as it gets!

Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons (favored by 4.5 points)
The last time the Seahawks lost a Divisional Playoff game on the road was in 2012 – to the Atlanta Falcons, 30-28, on Falcon K Matt Bryant’s last play FG.  History has a way of repeating itself.  More recently, these same Seahawks (with All-Pro S Earl Thomas, who is now out) beat the Falcons in Seattle in Week 6, 26-24.  That will tell you how close this game will be and it will be the kickers (or at least kicker…) who will make the difference.  Atlanta was a measly 5-3 at home this season and the Seahawks limped to a 4-4 road record.  Which bird is going to fly the highest this weekend?  Bet on Atlanta WR Julio Jones coming up with a monster game, backed by MVP-Candidate QB Matt Ryan (even with that 1-4 playoff record) having a big day.  Seahawk K Hauschka pulls a Scott Norwood at the end from 47…

Falcons 32, Seahawks 30

Houston Oilers Texans @ New England Patriots (favored by 16??)
These Texans are the only NFL team not to make it to their Conference Championship game.  Ever.  But they have been in the league only 15 years.  When was the last time you saw a team favored by 16 in a playoff game?  That’s 16 in the FIRST HALF!!  It doesn’t matter what personnel is playing with QB Tom Belichick, all he does is win.  Even visions of former Houston Oiler RB Earl Campbell ripping off 40 yard gains would not be enough for these woefully and non-offensive Texans.  Repeat of their Week 3 tilt coming right up…  Was that Brandon Weeden we saw under center for the Texans in the 2^nd half?

Patriots 37, Texans 0

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs (favored by 1.5 – yikes!)
The Sunday action starts (oops, ends now that we have decided to move it to the late game due to inclement weather predicted for Saturday night and Sunday morning in the Kansas City area) with a dandy. Who is gonna stop Le’Veon Bell?  Until there is an answer for that, the Steelers will be rolling past the famous KC barbeque to the AFC Championship game next weekend in Foxboro.  In Week 4, the Steelers lambasted the Chiefs at Heinz Field, 43-14.  Bell was “held” to 144 rushing yards and Big Ben picked up the slack with 5 TD tosses.  Meanwhile in BBQ-land, Chiefs Coach Andy Reid (“I’ll have 7 sides with those 2 slabs of beef, please”) is 18-5 is his last 23 games at Arrowhead, maybe the loudest stadium in the NFL.  Watch out for KR Tyreek Hill, as he will return 1 or maybe 2 all the way.  This is a “toss-em” game, but the home team prevails in the playoffs (for the 7^th consecutive time this year).  Big Ben has a 50% lower QB rating on the road than at home this year.

Chiefs 30, Steelers 27 (2 OT’s)

Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys (favored by 4.5)
Marquis game of the weekend.  We’ve already had 2 great ones.  Good thing tomorrow is a holiday, so we can get the nervous system back to normal.  The Pack has now ripped off 7 in a row.  QB Aaron Rodgers is white-hot (I told you last week that kryptonite would be the only thing to cool him down).  As soon as you think Green Bay is finally dead, a few Hail Mary’s become the magic elixir.  Who needs WR Jordy Nelson? 97 catches for 1,257 yards and 14 TD’s.  With those broken ribs, he won’t be suiting up.  That hit last weekend reminded me of Bills LB Mike Stratton plastering Charger RB Keith Lincoln in 1965 at War Memorial Stadium in the AFL Title Game (won by the Bills).  Over with America’s Team (yuck), optimism abounds.  Fondly looking back at their Week 6 win over the at-the-time rudderless Packers, they are sensing this as the opportunity to elevate the Cowboy dynasty to what it was in former years.  2 super rookies, but they are rookies.  Great O Line.

Superman snaps the home team winning streak at 7.  Yep, you first heard it here.

Packers 31, Cowboys 30

Participants – be sure to include your SB Bonus Pick (worth 100 points) with your picks.  This is the best weekend of the playoffs, so get warm and comfy with a few adult beverages and enjoy the games on your big screen in the man cave!

Of special note – you probably saw that the San Diego Chargers have Bolted for LA.  Back to where they started as an original member of the AFL in 1960.  Until their new stadium is built (2 years), they will be playing in front of 30,000 (if they all come…).  Regardless, they do have the coolest uniforms when they are wearing light blue…  They will be back in San Diego within 10 years, I “bolt”ly predict.  LA is just not a pro football town (or college football town, for that matter).

~~ The Commish

We’re down to 8 in the running for SB51 accolades, having just concluded the 4 Wild Card games.  And – as predicted in my earlier message to you – the home team won all 4 games.  Those of you who heeded my predictions were richly rewarded.  For those of you who didn’t, well – they’re your points…  Beyond the 1^st 3 quarters of the last weekend game, there was not a lot of excitement

Houston Texans 27, Oakland Raiders 14
So, the QB matchup was not much to write home about.  The highlight seemed to be the ever-present shots of JJ Watt in street clothes on the sidelines cheering on his teammates.  Surprised he didn’t do a bunch of 40-yard gassers at halftime…  The Houston D (best in the AFC) was too much for Oakland 3^rd string QB Connor Cook.  Texan QB Brock Osweiler failed to self-destruct, but he gets a golden opportunity next weekend.  This was the 4^th time in the last 6 years that the (yawn) Texans hosted a Wild Card game at home.  The environment just isn’t conducive for a lot of excitement.  Nonetheless, the Texans are advancing, while the Raiders are driving Carr-less back to Oakland.  A 4-way (no, not a Skyline Chili offering) tie for first with a couple of complimentary goose-eggs.

Seattle Seahawks 26, Detroit Lions 6
Thomas Rawls is in Beast Mode 2.  Talk about a great environment for the home team and the 12^th Man.  The Lions never seemed to get on track and ended the night with essentially no rushing yards.  Beast Mode 2 was close to 200.  Seahawk QB Wilson played his usual game, which is trouble for the opposing team.  2 great shots of Seattle Head Coach Pete Carroll starting a new piece of gum.  Yes, Seattle WR Paul Richardson did make a very nice catch.  Catch of the Year?  Maybe…  I’m still seeing OBJ’s 2-fingered TD grab a couple of years ago, however.  Ben the Butler takes the honors in this one.

Pittsburgh Steelers 30, Miami Dolphins (now available in a frozen variety) 12
This one was over before I got the cushion warmed.  Antonio Brown was unstoppable in the 1^st quarter.  Then they turn the focus to RB Le’Veon Bell, who goes for close to 200 yards.  I think he had 12 straight carries, all for big gains.  The Fins are floating (ice does not sink) back to Miami with several big chucks missing from their dorsal.  Greg the Great has a variance of 1 (had the Dolphins gone for one late in the game instead of messing up a 2-point try, it would have been his second “perfect game”).

Green Bay Packers 38, New York Football Giants 13
Somewhere during the 1^st quarter you would have thought the Giants could actually win this one.  Up 6-0 with their D making havoc out of the Packers, plus the injury to Green Bay star WR Jordy Nelson, seemed to be the magical recipe for Cheesehead Hell.  Then Aaron Rodgers decided to start playing.  Enough of being sacked.  Just be patient and dissect the Giant D for 4 TD passes.  I think he had 45 seconds before making a first down toss in the 4^th quarter.  It seemed like 2 different games.  JTB takes the honors.

So, here is where we stand after the Wild Card Games (which represent only 13% of all points amassed in the HSBT playoffs):

• 2017 Winner – 144 points (I think he’s serious about making a run for trophy #7)
• Pete the Terp – 124 (nice start in his trophy defense; everyone needs to catch his new profile pic on the website – he calls it the “Hewesman pose”)
• Ben the Butler – 117 (you can always count on him for a strong start)
• Comeback Kid – 105 (it’s been a while, but I hear some rumblings…)
• Buffalo Bill – 102 (that darn goose-egg)
• Greg the Great – 94 (soaking up another Seahawk home playoff victory)
• HenricoFiveOh – 93 (is he distracted with that recent, new addition to the household?)
• JTB – 84 (all he can do is go up…)

We set a HSBT record on Saturday with a 4-way tie for most points in a game.  Too bad the number was a lame 32…

Look for my “expert” analysis of the upcoming weekend games and don’t forget to submit your scores and BONUS SUPER BOWL PICK before the action begins Saturday afternoon.

Until then, I remain

~~ The Commish

Strap on your comfy pants, grab a bite (or 2), get a few cold one’s out of the refrigerator (more on the frig in a bit) and let’s get ready for some football!!  The NFL playoffs that culminate in Super Bowl 51 start this weekend.  And – the teams that were in the first 2 Super Bowls (not called that at the time) are both in the playoffs for the 2^nd time in a row.

Right now, the trophy resides on the fireplace mantle of Pete the Terp’s home in the northern suburbs of Baltimore.  Without his beloved Ravens in the playoffs, he is a good choice to win his 2^nd trophy.  2 participants are looking for their first trophy victory.  3 are looking for trophy #7.  Who will win this year?  We’re not telling at this point, but let’s get to the eagerly awaited predictions from the desk of The Commish:

#5 Oakland Raiders (12-4) @ #4 Houston Texans (9-7)

The weekend’s premier QB matchup in the playoff opener.  Oakland QB Connor Cook (who?) is making his very first NFL start, while 3^rd stringer Brock Osweiler (he of the $72MM contract) is filling in for his injured sub.  Obviously, a (MVP candidate Derek) Carr ride is what the Raiders had planned for.  I guess this will be a defensive game and we all get a chance to watch All-Pro LB Kahlil Mack do his thing and see Jadaveon Clowney reek havoc.  These 2 teams met earlier this year at Mile High Stadium 2 – in Mexico City.  The Raiders are looking to win their first road playoff game since 1980.  Key Matchup – Brock Osweiler vs. himself.  Without Carr, it’s gonna be tough for the Raiders.  Will the Texans score more points in this year’s Wild Card game in Houston than a year ago (registering a nice, fat goose-egg)?

Smell an upset, but also smell the Texas BBQ

Texans 23, Raiders 16

#6 Detroit Red Wings Lions (9-7) @ #3 Seattle Seahawks (10-5-1)

Sorry for the typo – didn’t know Detroit had another sports franchise that made the playoffs other than the hockey guys.  Get your earplugs ready for this snowy one at CenturyLink Field.  To say the Lions have struggled a bit is an understatement – they have lost their last 8 playoff games, their last road playoff victory was 60 years ago and they are the first team since 1970 to make the playoffs while losing their last 3 games in their conference.  Their QB – Matthew Stafford (he of the gifted arm) is 5-45 all-time vs. teams with a winning record (compared to Seattle QB Russell Wilson, who is 26-16), but carved out 8 (yep, 8) 4^th quarter comebacks this year.  Seattle on the other hand is peaking, despite losing the heart and soul their D a few weeks ago.  They should win, but you just never know how they will.  How much gum does Pete Carroll chew during a game?

Just like General (Richard?) Sherman’s march to Atlanta in the Civil War

Seahawks 29, Lions 23 (sorry about that pick on the final drive)

#6 Miami Dolphins (10-6) @ #3 Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)

Did you know – Dolphin RB Jay Ajayi led the league in rushing and ran all over the Steelers (for the first of his 3 200+ yard rushing games) earlier this year?  Did you know – Steeler RB Le’Veon Bell led the league in scrimmage yards (despite missing the first 2 games of the season)?  Did you know – Big Ben has lost 4 of his last 5 playoff starts?  Another backup QB in this one – Miami’s Matt Moore filling in for injured Ryan Tannehill.  At least he has started an NFL game, but this is his first playoff start.

And finally, Did you know?  With their first Wild Card home win since 2003 (over da Browns, 36-33)

Steelers 27, Dolphins 17

#5 New York Football (as if anyone remembers the baseball version) Giants (11-5) @ The North Pole

Kickoff temperature will be a balmy 14 in Green Bay, with winds gusting up to 20 mph.  The sofa and warm fire sound a little better.  Around Thanksgiving several weeks ago, the Pack was 4-6 and the Cheeseheads were going crazy (even recommending some beheadings).  QB Aaron Rodgers told them to settle down and all we need to do is run the table (without a running game).  Which they did over the last 6 weeks of the season.  Giants QB Eli Manning has a better post-season record (2-0) in GB than Mr. Rodgers (2-2).  The Giants D is awfully hot despite the weather forecast, but Mr. Rodgers is hotter (it might take kryptonite to cool him off).

Hello, Big D – Here we come!  Cheeseheads survive another week

Packers 30, Giants 23

No upsets this weekend – which will be the first time since 2012.  Be sure to check out our site for up to the minute scores and points for each Participant!  My Wild Card weekend summary will be forthcoming early next week.

Good luck to all Participants!!

~~ The Commish

Participants,

Well, we finally have determined the 12 teams that will compete for this year’s Super Bowl (SB51), and the playoffs start this Saturday with the WildCard round.  If you did not receive my email from earlier in the week, check your Spam email for it.  Our website has been updated with the results from last year.  A few reminders before the real action begins as the 8 participants prepare to battle it out for the 29th HSBT:

RULES
Please read the “League Rules” (found on our home page at www.hewessbt.com) to become reacquainted with all you need to know.  I’m available to answer any questions.

MAKING YOUR PICKS
All picks are officially submitted on our site, using the “Submit Picks” tab.  Please type in the team name and respective score you believe will be the final game score.  Once you have submitted your scores, they will be time-stamped and sent via email to The Commish, who will load them to the site.  Please – no last minute frantic text messages with your scores.

KEEPING TRACK
Visit the “Standings” tab to get real-time updates on game scores and your points as games are played.  This interactive feature was implemented 2 years ago and has received kudos.

REMINDERS (As I Do Every Year)

1. Picks for ALL 4 WildCard Weekend games are to be submitted no later than 4:30pm EST on Saturday, January 7 (which is just prior to the kickoff of the 1st playoff game).
2. Any pick not submitted on time will result in a 25 point penalty for that game (meaning you will get -25 points for those games).
3. No “partial scores” are to be submitted.  We did have this occur several years ago and it went like this:  “Chicago 24, SF”.  This will also result in the aforementioned -25 points.

It’s shaping up to be another great year, with maybe 1 or 2 teams thinking they have the inside track on winning the Super Bowl.  The highly-anticipated Commish’s expert and in-depth analysis of each WildCard game will be coming tomorrow.  Use this information wisely to solidify your thoughts before submitting your picks Saturday afternoon.

Pete the Terp currently holds the trophy (and he sent me a picture of it from his home outside Baltimore in March) and has told me that he has no intentions of relinquishing it to any other participant (now, that’s a bold statement!).

With 8 participants, it could be another record-setting year for points (can you believe Comeback Kid surpassed 1,000 points and lost by almost 300 points?)

Until then, I remain

~~The Commish