HSBT

In record-setting fashion, Pete the Terp claimed his 1^st HSBT trophy, with a dominating performance that included a record 1,322 points (surpassing Greg the Great’s 2015 mark of 1,060 points).  Fueled by the Broncos dominating victory over the Carolina Panthers last Sunday evening, Pete the Terp was also the only participant to collect the 100 bonus points.  His 10-1 record in the playoffs is only topped by his extraordinary 11-0 mark, which was set during his rookie season in 2007.

Immediately after his win, I had the opportunity to interview him briefly before being shoved out of the way by CBS sideline announcer, Tracy Wolfson.  He said, “It’s about time I won this thing, especially after going 11-0 in my rookie season and coming in 3^rd place.  What the heck?  It feels good to know that I’ll bring a trophy to the Baltimore area.  I knew that Peyton would deliver, and I always root for former Baltimore Colts (or is that Indianapolis Colts?).  I’ll be anxiously waiting for that package from Seattle.”

Meanwhile, let’s recap SB50:

While most pundits had the Camthers winning this one by an overwhelming margin, I had predicted a Bronco victory on this website a few short days ago.  Very few heeded my advice and the results showed.  The Bronco D shut down the top-rated offense in the league and took advantage of key turnovers on their way to that 13-7 halftime lead (which I also predicted on this very website a few days earlier).

SB50 MVP Von Miller and the rest of the Denver D turned on the Orange Crush and outdid the Mountain Dew “Puppy Monkey Baby” ad.  We may have seen the last of QB Peyton Manning, as he earned his 200^th career win in Santa Clara.

The Sour Grape Award goes to Carolina QB Cam Newton.

Final standings for the 28^th edition of the HSBT look like this:

• Pete the Terp – 1,322 points as he crushed the other participants like the Denver D punished the Carolina Panthers
• Comeback Kid – almost… A great surge in the SB with 508 points puts him in 2^nd place overall; his personal record 1,049 points are 3rd best all-time
• HenricoFiveOh – was in the winner’s seat with his 14-13 SB pick, then the 2^nd quarter started.  An overall very good campaign, but the Conference Championship games slowed him down; he claims the Bronze Chicken Wing for 3^rd place with 861 points
• Buffalo Bill – unlucky once again in the final game, but had the 2^nd best variance on his way to a 4^th place finish with 778 points
• 2016 Winner – had Carolina pulled out this one, he had a shot at the trophy, but will settle for 5^th place with 741 points
• JTB – much better showing than in his rookie year, but his big bet in the SB landed him in 6^th place overall; his 592 points more than doubled his 2015 output
• Ben the Butler – another relatively quiet season with 484 points, but he can now see that perseverance, 1,322 points and a 10-1 record can bring home the trophy. 7^th place, but not in the basement…
• Greg the Great – other priorities obviously detracted him this season and his SB goose-egg did not help matters. 282 total points won’t win many HSBT trophies.  Don’t forget to get the trophy engraved before sending it to Pete the Terp

HSBT stats will be updated over the next few weeks and will be available for your viewing enjoyment.

Again, congrats to Pete the Terp on his record-setting win!

Yours in objective and accurate information,

~ The Commish

Participants,

My experienced and dedicated team of seasoned data analysts has been crunching the numbers for almost 2 weeks and delivered to me earlier today the actual game score for SB 50!  Our vast network of computers contains more than 100 PB (that’s petabytes – 1 petabyte is equal to 1,000 terabytes, which is equal to 1,000 gigabytes, and so forth) of data, so the modeling exercise has taken longer than expected.

While must pundits have been filling the winter air with obscure oral diarrhea, my team has been behind closed doors just crunching the numbers.  In addition to the data gathering effort, they have also run multiple Monte Carlo simulations to re-verify their prognostications.

The HSBT competition is at a frenzy, with all participants trying to determine what it will take to win.  The formula is simple – just have more points than everyone else.

• Current leader Buffalo Bill can see the finish line and the trophy, but those images in the his rear view mirror are getting larger
• Pete the Terp has the Broncos with the SB Bonus 100 points, but is he a lock to pick them to win?
• JTB has not been in this rarified air so late in the competition, so we don’t know what to expect.  But being a Browns fan, you know he will have a solid pick (cough)
• Comeback Kid has been going through pencil erasers at the rate of 3 per day, as he tries to calculate his best odds of winning
• HenricoFiveOh is probably feeling pretty confident right now, with eyes fixated on #7.  Look out for him
• Greg the Great and Ben the Butler will submit some very interesting scores, so it will be a wild day for all participants
• Who did we miss?  Oh, yeah – 2016 Winner (pictured holding the trophy once again after a dramatic pick that clinches the lowest game variance in SB history)…

Without further adieu (drum roll, please), here is scoop on how tomorrow’s game:

Even before the kickoff, we will have “Coingate 2”  That’s right, the fumbling ref who botched the OT coin toss in the Packer – Cardinal game 3 weeks ago, will be the head ref for SB50 and gets the dubious honor of tossing the coin.  This time, more than 3.7 billion people will witness the bumbled toss, that will be redone automatically by spectator voting on their smartphones.

After 10 minutes of commercials (at an estimated cost of $300 million), we finally have a kickoff!!  The GPS-based Napa Valley wine app goes haywire and 25,000 fans (who paid a mere $73,500 per ticket) are left with botched beverage orders and are forced to actually leave their seats to find a drinking fountain.  Meanwhile, sales are brisk through the electronic food ordering system, with waiters in server tuxes dishing out $125 filet mignon sandwiches at a rate of 250 per minutes.  Nothing is too good for SB 50…

Oh, and there is actually a game being played on the field, where the Broncos have a stunning and commanding halftime lead over the Panthers, 10-7.

The halftime entertainment is sponsored by the entire Silicon Valley, and the light show at the end of the 45-minute extravaganza blows out the electrical systems in 10 neighboring states.  Reminiscent of the last time the 49ers played (against the Ravens, in SB 47.)

Not to worry, all is fixed by 11:00pm (Pacific Time) and the 2^nd half gets into full swing with the Panthers scoring in the final 5 seconds to make it Denver 38, Carolina 37.  Two penalties later, the Panthers are forced to kick the tying extra point from 47 yards.  If you’re from Buffalo, you know the story…

Peyton finally gives Denver another SB trophy, while the Camthers can only scratch their heads in disbelief.  And with that final score, the winner of HSBT 28 is (I will inform you Sunday night after the game)…

Until then, I remain

THE Commish

Participants,

Similar to the Divisional Round games, we had a tight one that went down to the wire and another blowout dominated by Newton’s Law of Football.  We also have a new leader in the sprint for the HSBT.  So – let’s get right to the details:

Denver Broncos 20, New England Patriots 18
Did anyone know that Blair Walsh suited up wearing Stephen Gostkowski’s Patriots uniform?  While it seemed fairly innocuous at the time, that missed extra point after the first Patriot TD altered the game dramatically at the end.  It was a classic matchup (and maybe the last) between 2 future Hall of Famers, with Bronco QB Peyton cementing his Place in SB50 displaying a highly-disciplined offensive scheme that included a 10-yard “sprint” for a 1^st down at a key moment.  While you could have gotten up and grabbed a refill of your favorite adult beverage and not missed the end of that dash, it was duplicated by Patriots QB Tom Brady’s similar 12-yard run to keep a drive alive.

In a battle of good defenses, the Bronco D reigned at the end, by denying New England the 2-point conversion on the last drive.

Comeback Kid (look out…) and 2016 Winner shared the spotlight win 105 points each (and identical picks) in a game where every participant chose the visiting Patriots to win (first time that has happened in 10 years).  JTB kept the goose-egg carnage alive and well, with his second of the playoffs.

Carolina Panthers 49 (yep, 49), Arizona Cardinals 15
In a repeat of last week’s dominant performance, the Panthers again went on an offensive rampage early and often and reduced the visiting Cardinals to red feather dust.  Arizona QB Carson Palmer continued his playoff miseries with 6 turnovers.  The Cam that drives the Panther engine is in high gear.  This is a cocky and confident bunch, reminiscent of the New York Football Jets in SB3 (or “AFL NFL World Championship Game 3”).

JTB made up for lost ground in the early game by amassing 353 points (second highest in HSBT history), while Greg the Great suffered his first goose-egg of the playoffs.

Standings
With one final and decisive game to go, the HSBT competition is heating up to near epic proportions, with just about all participants having a legitimate shot at the coveted trophy.  Adding to the intensity is the fact that Buffalo Bill, 2016 Winner and JTB have Carolina penciled in for the SB Bonus points, while Pete the Terp likes the Broncos for the extra 100 points.  So, it looks like the top 4 are going to have a good, old shootout in Santa Clara next weekend.

• Buffalo Bill – 690 points, and quietly going for his first trophy in 13 years
• Pete the Terp – 670 points, and while he relinquished the lead, this is his best position in hopes of capturing his first trophy (that 9-1 record helps)
• 2016 Winner – 613 points and closing in on #7
• JTB – 576 points after a big move last weekend; he can see the finish line and the final sprint starts now
• Comeback Kid – 541 points and holding tight, plus he’s known for big games in the SB
• HenricoFiveOh – 433 points after a relatively quiet weekend; some work needs to be done to lock in #7
• Ben the Butler – 372 points and will need a “do you believe in miracles?” pick next weekend
• Greg the Great – 282 points and in a very unusual spot requiring the aforementioned miracle to retain the trophy (the biggest comeback in HSBT history is 226 points)

My data analytics team has been crunching numbers for the last several days and will continue their fine work, culminating in The Commish’s expert analysis and prediction for SB50.  Having personally watched every SB, this one has a lot of intrigue which should generate some very interesting and exciting picks by the Participants.

Watch your email next weekend for some super picks.

Until then, I remain,

~ The Commish

Participants,

It’s the first time in 11 years that the #1 and #2 seeds will play each other for both the AFC and NFC titles.  And that year (2005), the New England Patriots won on the road before winning a close one, 24-21, over the Philadelphia Eagles in SB XXXIX.  The year before, New England and Carolina squared off in SB XXXVIII.  The Arizona Cardinals have never been to the SB, and the Denver Broncos have been there with mixed results.

So now the importance of picking a score close the actual is heightening, while fingernails grow shorter and the proverbial noose gets tighter.  The leaders are now looking back to see how much of a lead they have, while the rest of the pack is like hungry wolves closing in on their prey.  Welcome to Conference Championship Sunday!

#2 New England Patriots @ #1 Denver Broncos
This marks the 10^th time in the last 15 years that the Patriots are playing in the AFC Championship game.  That’s right.  While the focus of attention this week has been on the QB’s, and rightfully so, it will come down to D that will determine the winner.  The Broncos played well enough last week to nip past the beleaguered Steelers (down to their #3 RB, no Antonio Brown and a gimpy Big Ben), but will need to step it up significantly if they hope to head out to Santa Clara in another week.  Meanwhile, the Patriots seem to be humming on all cylinders for maybe the first time this year.  Are you going to bet against Bill Belichick and Tom Brady?  Their playoff record would tell you that is not a wise move.

The Patriots are 2-2 in road AFC Championship games over the last 15 years, the most recent being a loss to these same Broncos in 2014.  The Broncos are 1-1 in their last AFC Championship home games over about the same period of time.

This game is really Peyton vs. Father Time and we know who is undefeated in those matchups.  Just one more time, however, for the Bronco D to shine in the thin, Rocky Mountain air.  Orange Crush is moving on as Denver K Brandon McManus connects on a 61-yd FG with time expiring.  The 2^nd greatest finish in NFL playoff history.

… Denver 17, New England 16 (keeping Pete the Terp’s 100 Bonus points still alive)

Or will it be?

… Patriots 34, Shetland Ponies 16 (3 more picks for Peyton Place)

#2 Arizona Cardinals @ #1 Carolina Panthers
Two former Heisman winners and #1 overall draft picks will do battle in the nightcap.  Both teams looked vulnerable in their victories last weekend and a shootout could be in the making, as both QB’s tossed 35 TD’s this season.

In a repeat of last year’s WildCard game, the Cardinals are looking to reverse their fortunes with a wide open passing attack and aggressive, risk-taking D that dominated all season long.  The running game is set up by the passing attack, which is the opposite approach of the run-first Panthers.  Luckily, the weather should not be a factor, but the field was a little tricky last weekend – especially for the WR’s.

With Carson remaining hot, the Cardinals will be going to their very first SB in 2 weeks, as they shut down the Cam that drives the Panther engine.  Carolina, on the other hand, is 16-1 and the best the NFC has to offer.  Look for a stifling D to force Arizona to run, which will lead to a Panther win and find their way to a 2nd SB visit.

Unbelievably, this goes into OT but there will not be a repeat of last week’s Coingate to determine who gets the ball first.

… Arizona 36, Carolina 30 (as Cards WR Larry Fitzgerald does it again…)

Or will it be?

… Panthers 20, Desert Birds 10 (in a defensive struggle)

Either way, it’s shaping up to be a great day of football, with a trip to the SB on the line.

• Pete the Terp has the best HSBT record in Conference Championship games (14-4) and looks to continue his perfect season
• Greg the Great has set the standard with 520 points in these 2 games (which includes a 401-point game)
• Buffalo Bill is the all-time points leader in these 2 games (with 4,612 over 27 seasons) and is looking to position himself for his first trophy win “in a few years”
• 2016 Winner is, well, on his way
• Comeback Kid is looking for a big package from Seattle in the return mail
• HenricoFiveOh, in true law enforcement mode, is quietly stalking the leader – is trophy #7 a possibility?
• Ben the Butler frantically got his picks in about 2 minutes before last weekend’s kickoff; he’s gonna have to hurry up in order to catch the leaders
• JTB has a “little work” to do to get into contention, but he’s still mathematically in the running

My games summary will be coming out next week.  Until then, be sure to submit your picks before kickoff and get prepared for 2 great games.

I remain,

~ The Commish

Participants,

Well, the home teams made for lost ground by going 4-0 this weekend.  And, Pete the Terp maintained his impressive lead with the help of a perfect game (i.e., zero variance)!  He is now sporting an 8-0 overall record (perfect!) and a sizable, but fragile, lead.  Let’s get down to the highlights of the 4 games played this past weekend:

New England 27, Kansas City 20
No matter how banged up they are, the Patriots always find a way to look good, and pull out a victory.  The Chiefs kept it interesting and had a chance at the end to even it up, but the offense that looked so good in Houston a week ago reminded us that Alex Smith is not Tom Brady (or any other top QB).  HenricoFiveOh finally wins one with a variance of 3, while JTB racks up his first goose-egg of the season.

Arizona 26, Green Bay 20 (OT)
The weekend thriller, without a doubt.  Hope you forced yourself to stay up and watch this classic.  Pack QB Aaron Rodgers ties it on the last play in regulation with another Hail Mary of over 50 yards.  The coin “toss” went under review and it was determined that the coin never flipped during the toss.  Re-toss and the honors went to the Cardinals, who took all of 2 plays (both by WR Larry Fitzgerald) to score the winning TD.  Comeback Kid wins this one, with a near-perfect variance of 1 (too bad they don’t kick extra points in OT).

Carolina 31, Seattle 24
Before you were settled into your easy chair, the Panthers were up 14-0.  Then it was 31-0 at half.  Who was wearing the Seahawk D uniforms?  In spite of Russell Wilson’s heroics towards the end, the deficit was too large to make up.  Panther QB Cam Newton is looking pretty good right now… This was Pete the Terp’s perfect game while Ben the Butler ended up on the opposite end of the scale.

Denver 23, Pittsburgh 16
Give the Steelers a lot of credit for playing as well as they did, with all the injuries.  And they almost pulled it out against a surprisingly lackluster Bronco team.  Peyton Manning’s ratio of tight spirals to wounded ducks was 51:49.  Not impressive, but a win is a win.  2016 Winner was in the winner’s circle in this one, while Ben the Butler finished up Sunday with no points.

So, this is where things stand with 3 games (and 56% of the total points left, based on historical averages):

• Pete the Terp (now 8-0) – 503 points and making sure he has a prominent place to display the trophy
• Buffalo Bill – quietly sneaking up with 421 points (and a 7-1 record), but the noose tightens starting next weekend
• Comeback Kid – 403 points and the 2^nd most points last weekend; could this be trophy #6?
• 2016 Winner – 353 points and perfectly positioned for the last 3 games
• HenricoFiveOh – 352 points after a much better weekend than last; keeping pace (which is bad news for the other participants)
• Greg the Great – 228 points and this weekend was not up to his standards, but he’s been here before
• JTB – a sub-par effort with 223 total points, but he has Carolina on His Mind… Look for a big weekend
• Ben the Butler – with 148 points, some interesting picks will be coming

Look for my expert analysis and predictions this weekend.  Picks will be due on Sunday afternoon before the 3:00pm (EST) kickoff of the AFC Championship game.  Study up – this is looking like a close battle for the trophy.

~ The Commish