HSBT

Participants,

It was the best of games; it was the worst of games.  Not to quote Dickens, but Sunday’s conference championship games were dramatically different.  It was also the best of times and worst of times for the HSBT participants (more on that later.)  Let’s get to my wrap-up for the Conference Championship games:

Philadelphia Eagles 31, 49ers 7
If we told you that the 49ers starting QB started the game, ended the game, did not have an incompletion or INT, you would have thought they might have won!  That was the case, but it was a Purdy miserable day for the 3^rd string QB.  And the 4^th string QB.  And the 5^th string QB (RB McCaffrey).  So, the vaunted 49ers D then stepped it up, right?  Dead wrong.  What did they have, 15 penalties?

Everything that could have gone wrong for the 49ers did, and everything that could have gone right for the Eagles did.

This was not even close and might have been one the least interesting Conference Championship Games since the Buffalo Bills beat the Raiders, 51-3 (anything to try to bring a smile to Bills fans) back in 1992.

No sense beating this dog to death – that had to be a Purdy long flight back to the Bay area for the 49ers.  Eagles back in the SB for the 1^st time in 5 years.

HSBT Update
HenricoFiveOh jumped into the lead, earning 152 points.  Everyone picked the Eagles to win.

Kansas City Chiefs 23, Who (Were) Dey? 20
A thriller.  Mahomes playing with a high ankle sprain.  Burrow making a comeback twice in the 2^nd half to tie it up.  Bengal penalties were frequent and at the very worst time, especially that last one that allowed Chiefs K Butker to kick the winner with 00:04 on the clock.

This game had you on the edge of your seat for almost the entire game.  The Bengals almost beat he Chiefs for the 4^th time in a row at Burrowhead, but came up short.  A game full of drama, penalties, backups making great plays in the clutch, and the Cincy banged up O line finally succumbing to a tough and scheming D.

The Chiefs are back in the Super Bowl and the Bengals are not.  Mahomes has 2 weeks to get better.

HSBT Update
Comeback Kid posts 129 points and accumulates the most points (209) for the Sunday games.  Greg the Great continues his momentary struggles and posts the only goose-egg of the weekend.

12 games down and 1 to go.  This is the closest race in HSBT history, and the trophy could rest in anyone’s hands in 2 weeks.

• 2023 Winner (574 points) – stays in the lead by an insurmountable 1 point
• Comeback Kid (573 points) – a “distant” second place right now. He also has the Chiefs for his Super Bowl Bonus pick
• HenricoFiveOh (543 points) – 2^nd most points over the weekend and oh, so close
• Pete the Terp (517 points) – a solid pick in 2 weeks and he might have the bronze chicken wing
• Buffalo Bill (439 points) – a winning pick in 2 weeks and he will have his 1^st trophy in 20 years
• JTB (412 points) – lackluster weekend, but trails the leader by only 162 points
• Greg the Great (302 points) – look out for his Super Bowl pick!

I’ll have the league’s official analysis and game prediction for Feb 12 out to everyone sometime next week.  Enjoy this time to start planning out your strategy to win the trophy.

Until then, I remain
The Commish

Participants,

It’s now that time when the games become more important, there are more points for each game, when all Participants are trying to figure out how on earth they are going to catch the leader (2023 Winner), and when the proverbial noose gets a little tighter around the neck (i.e., are we starting to choke down the stretch?)

Two mammoth games this weekend, with no clear favorite in either – in fact, one game has Vegas confounded with no betting favorite!  It’s a toss-up!

Well, to help with all those questions and to “lighten the noose” you have to come to the right place.  Let’s start:

#2 San Francisco 49ers @ #1 Philadelphia Eagles
Based on their respective performances last week, you would automatically pick the Eagles to win this one in fairly convincing fashion.  They are, after all, playing at home (where they were 7-1) and 2.5 point favorites.  And it appears that QB Jalen Hurts is not, any longer.  A balanced attack, solid D (but a tad suspect against the running game) and a decent kicker.  What could possibly go wrong as visions of Vince Lombardi Trophies dance in their heads?

Hello, 49ers!  After that strange, but true, win against the up and down Cowboys (mostly down last weekend after being on a continual high in their victory the prior week in Tampa), you have to wonder if they have the consistency to pull off a HUGE road win.  They began the season with a 3-4 record, then went on a tear (in conjunction with the acquisition of RB McCaffrey from the Panthers) and won their last 10 regular season games.  Now the streak is up to 12 games.  Will lucky #13 be the curse that sends them back west – to SF, not Glendale, AZ?

Given that you automatically get 3 points for playing at home, the 49ers are actually favored to win this one.  And our analytics team here at NFL Headquarters is able to confirm that.

The 49ers have 1 more marquis star than the Eagles, which plays out to 1 more big play on Sunday in the first of 2 thrillers.

49ers 30, “I’m gonna fly (not) like an Eagles” 27
That was a Purdy nice TD pass late in the 4^th quarter to comeback

#3 Cincinnati Bengals @ #1 Kansas City Chiefs
Yes, the AFC Championship Game should have been played in Atlanta.  At least the Bills Mafia believes so.  We move forward.  The visiting Bengals have beaten the Chiefs 3 in a row at Arrowhead.  Kansas City QB Mahomes has a high ankle sprain.  Cincy is the defending AFC Champion.  All indicators point to a Bengals victory.  Ah, but that 3-point cushion since you are home makes this a Cincinnati win and another shot at the Vince Lombardi Trophy in February.

The Chiefs have been playing inconsistently during the regular season but have consistently won.  Will Mahomes be able to move outside the pocket?  He will have to with the recent play of the Bengals defensive front 7.  Will TE Kelce catch another 15 passes?  He may need to grab 20 to go along with a pair of TDs.  Can the KC defense stack up against the Bengals balanced and potent offense?  That will be the big test.

Either way, Comeback Kid or JTB will still be in contention for the Super Bowl Bonus 100 points.  What?  Who did Comeback Kid pick to win the Super Bowl?  There is no doubt it had to be the Bills.  However, he declined to pick his beloved Bills and rumor has it throughout western NY that this was the cause of the Bills meltdown last weekend in the dead of winter.  Go figure.  And, JTB is a devout Cleveland Browns fan, so picking the Bengals for anything would be blasphemy!!  Go figure, part 2.

By 10:15pm this Sunday night it will be,

Bengals 30, Chiefs 24
Nobody on the KC defense is able to Chase down Ja’Marr, who gets 3 TDs

In closing, it’s interesting to see that the Participant who failed to submit his Super Bowl Bonus pick on time has already submitted his 2 game picks for this weekend.

The games start at 3:00pm Eastern time, so be sure to get those all-important scores submitted before kickoff of the 1^st game!  I’ll be providing real-time scoring updates, so you can keep track of how much further behind 2023 Winner you are.

I’ll provide the customary weekend results early next week.

Until then, I remain,
The Commish

Participants,

Well, 3 of the 4 favored teams won last weekend, setting the stage for the Conference Championship Games this Sunday afternoon and evening.  Questions loom for those 2 games and we will get to that later in the week.  For now, here are the Divisional Round and HSBT Updates from last weekend:

Kansas City Chiefs 27, Jacksonville Jags 20
While the Chiefs literally limped to victory in this game, the bigger question will be the status of the injured right ankle of Chiefs QB Mahomes.  KC was dominating in this game, as TE Travis Kelce was catching 15 passes (most of them on critical 3^rd down plays).  Jags QB Trevor Lawrence didn’t hold up well in Arrowhead and had a few costly mistakes.  That 98-yard TD drive by the Chiefs, engineered by backup QB Chad Henne, was a signal that this game is officially over.

HSBT Update
HenricoFiveOh and Greg the Great (bottom feeders during the Super Wild Card Round) came to life with 65 points each to lead the way.

Philadelphia Eagles 38, New York Flag Football Giants 7
A lame showing by the underdog Giants, as the Eagles D put the hammer on the Giants offense all night long.  The Eagles ran and passed at will, and QB Hurts showed that his injured arm was just fine.  These Eagles are for real and these Giants aren’t yet.

HSBT Update
HenricoFiveOh continued his Saturday winning ways with 121 points (even though his variance was 20) and JTB secured the 1^st goose-egg of the weekend.

Cincinnati Bengals 27, Buffalo Bills 10
Perfect Buffalo Bills weather, Damar in the house, Bills Mafia in the stands.  What could go wrong?  After it was over, what went right?  Not much.  The underdog Bengals started out hot and never let up.  They controlled both lines of scrimmage, even with 3 backups on the offensive line.  Bills QB Josh Allen never really got going and the offense was out of sync all day.  Credit the Bengals for a dominating victory.  The AFC Championship Game will not be held in Atlanta.

HSBT Update
Pete the Terp picked the Bengals to win (as did JTB) and walked away with 119 points.  Meanwhile, Buffalo Bill and Comeback Kid posted matching goose-eggs.

San Francisco 49ers 19, Dallas Cowboys 12
Was that the strangest catch ever by 49ers TE George Kittle?  Was that the strangest last play of the game ever by the Cowboys – RB Zeke Elliott snapping the ball and getting pancaked?  Dallas K Brett Maher misses yet another extra point (but luckily for him it didn’t matter.)  Either the defenses were that good or the offenses were that average.  We’ll find out about the 49ers next weekend.

HSBT Update
Pete the Terp again takes the Sunday honors with 121 points, while Buffalo Bill pops out another goose-egg.

HSBT Standings
A lead change has taken place with only 3 games to go!  The unmentioned 2023 Winner has played steadily throughout the playoffs and has been rewarded with 410 points.  The lead is super-thin and more than half the points are up for grabs, from a historical perspective.

• 2023 Winner – 410 points and not planning to slip out of the lead going forward
• Pete the Terp – 393 points and the closest wannabe
• Comeback Kid and HenricoFiveOh – 364 points and the 1^st ever tie for points this deep in the playoffs
• JTB – 335 points after a solid weekend showing, but that goose-egg didn’t help
• Buffalo Bill – 275 points, with 2 games of 37 points and 2 games of 37 less points last weekend
• Greg the Great – 237 points and that weekend in western New York did not provide him much benefit in the HSBT

Unfortunately, Pete the Terp also did not submit his Super Bowl Bonus pick and will not be in the hunt for those additional 100 points.  Nor will those who picked the Bills.  Only Comeback Kid (he picked KC to win it all) and JTB (he picked Cincy to win it all) have a shot at those points.

As is customary, The Commish will publish his analysis and predictions for the Conference Championship Games later this week.

Until then, I remain

The Commish

Participants,

If this weekend is anything like last weekend’s nail-biter games, then we’re in for a real treat!  The 2 games on Saturday and 2 on Sunday will determine who plays next weekend for the right to go to Super Bowl 57!  Let’s get right into the games and predictions, as supported by the countless hours put forth by the analytics team here at NFL headquarters:

#4 Jacksonville Jaguars @ #1 Kansas City Chiefs
Did you know that Jags QB has NEVER lost a Saturday football game?  Not middle school, high school, college or in the NFL.  Did you also know that he has NEVER played the Kansas City Chiefs (favored by 8.5 points) on a Saturday?  These 2 teams tangled in Week 10 at Arrowhead, with the Chiefs narrowly escaping the #2 overall AFC seed in a 27-17 victory.

What Jags team will show up?  The team that gave up 27 points, to accompany 4 turnovers, in the first half last week, or the team that scored 28 points in the second half last week in a come from behind thriller?

The Chiefs had the benefit of a bye, so they are primed to start their journey back to the Super Bowl.  Can anything slow them down?

Kansas City Chiefs 31, Jacksonville Jaguars 14 (4 more picks for Trevor Lawrence!)

#6 New York Football Giants @ #1 Philadelphia Eagles
The ever-improving Giants are hitting their stride and are primed for the big upset over the NFC #1 seed (like the 49ers did to the Packers last year in the Divisional Round game in Green Bay).  Their clobbering of the Vikes last weekend solidified that improvement.  Can their WR’s produce to provide some balance the strong running game (Saquon Barkley and QB Daniel Jones)?

The Eagles seem to be pretty cocky, led by 2^nd year QB Jalen who has put the Hurts on most opponents this season.  Their D could be the best in the NFC.  And the game is in Philly, known for fanatical fans that (unfortunately) go above and beyond in their support.

New York Football Giants 24, Philadelphia Eagles 23 (with 3 in-stadium court convictions for rowdiness, drunkenness and fighting)

#3 Cincinnati Bengals @ #2 Buffalo Bills
We certainly expect that this game will go for a full 4 quarters, unlike the previous meeting almost 3 weeks ago.  This could be a shootout featuring 2 great offensive teams.  The Bengals, however, are without 60% of their starting O Line, which will definitely allow Bills DC Frazier to dial up some blitzing and pressure schemes.  They have 3 terrific WR’s and a strong running game.

On the other side, the Bills are at home and have found a way all season (well, at least for most of it) to eke out the close games.  QB Josh Allen needs to stop making sloppy throws (which he typically offsets during the next series with a 75-yard TD strike).  The Bills are 4-1 this season when Josh Allen has 3 or more turnovers.  Go figure.

This should be the most entertaining game of the weekend, and if you are a fan of either team you can throw away those nail clippers.

Buffalo 33, Cincinnati 31 (oh my, that 47-yard FG by Tyler Bass as the clock struck 00:00 was sweet!!)
And just like that, the Bills are off to Atlanta!

#5 Dallas Cowboys @ #2 San Francisco 49ers
After you get your heartbeat back to normal, tune this game in.  It, too, should keep you on the edge of your seat.  The Cowboys thoroughly drubbed the Bucs in Tampa on Monday night and have a ton of momentum, with a QB that literally dazzled last week.  The 49ers are super-solid on both sides of the ball and have a few marquis players that the Cowboys will have to figure out how to stifle.  Good luck.

Will the 49ers QB continue to be more than Purdy good?  Which Dak will show up?  Another thriller to wrap up the weekend.

Dallas 20, San Francisco 17 (still avenging that Dwight Clark TD pass from Joe Montana)

Be sure to submit your game picks AND YOUR SUPER BOWL BONUS PICK before 4:30pm EST.  Rumor has it that Greg the Great will be joining forces with Comeback Kid this weekend.  We will keep an ever watchful eye open for any potential collusion.

Get those weekend chores done early, get to the store for NFL Playoff nourishment (the usual array of junk food and adult beverages), and then kick back for 4 great games!

Until then, I remain
The Commish

Participants,

And what a Wild Weekend it was!  4 of the 6 games were thrillers, going down to the last possession.  The 2 bookend games were not as close, but did provide some Purdy good entertainment value.  It was also the weekend for comebacks – Comeback Kid, the Jags improbable 2^nd half turnaround, the Fins almost making off-season life in western New York pretty miserable, the New York Football Giants hanging on at the end in a surprise road win, and the Ravens with an upset victory until the late 4th quarter fumble return for a 98-yard TD.

When was the last time you saw a K miss 4 consecutive extra points?  How about Jags QB Trevor Lawrence with his own quartet?  4 picks in the 1^st half and 4 TD passes in the 2^nd half?  Has the GOAT been finally put out to pasture?  Not one of his better playoff performances.

HSBT Update
Comeback Kid came out of the gates fast and furious, with a perfect 6-0 record (also matched by Buffalo Bill and 2023 Winner) and the early, insurmountable lead.  He earned the most points in 3 of the 6 games.

After 6 games and with 7 left to be played, here are the current HSBT standings:

• Comeback Kid – 276 points (2^nd highest for the Wild Card round)
• Buffalo Bill – 201 (his traditional hot start)
• 2023 Winner – 177 (keeping an eye on the lead)
• JTB – 128 (solid start)
• Pete the Terp – 91 (he’s done better)
• HenricoFiveOh – 89 (he knows it’s still early)
• Greg the Great – 48 (looking for a bounce back this weekend, hoping some of Comeback Kid’s magic will rub off as he visits western New York)

Super Wild Card Weekend Games Recap

San Francisco 49ers 41, See (ya) attle Seahawks 23
SF put on an offensive display with all their marquis players contributing.  The Seahawks put up a valiant effort but turnovers cost them in the end.  The 49er D is for real and the offense in Purdy good, too (he’s now 6-0 as a starter).  This looked like a tune-up for the battle against the Cowboys on Sunday night.

HSBT Results
Buffalo Bill jumps out the early lead with 74 points, as all Participants (except Greg the Great, from the Seattle area) pick the 49ers

Jacksonville Jaguars 31, Meltdown Meatheads 30
Are you kidding?  You’re up 27-0 in the 2^nd quarter and find a way to lose?  As mentioned earlier (and predicted before last weekend’s games), Jags QB Lawrence is fully capable of tossing 3 picks or 3 TDs.  Who knew he would get 4 of each in the same game?  Who’s managing the clock in San Diego LA?

HSBT Results
Comeback Kid notches his first weekend victory with 52 points

Buffalo Bills 34, Miami Fins 31
Are turnovers going to catch up with Josh Allen? It seems like every time he makes an ill-advised play, he turns around in the next series and fires a 50 strike for a TD.  He’ll need to clean up those turnovers if they want to keep playing this season. Well, it definitely was a Wild Card weekend, with 4 terrific battles marked by bookend bores on either end of the schedule.  It was also the weekend for comebacks – Comeback Kid, the Jags improbable 2^nd half turnaround, the Fins almost making off-season life in western New York pretty miserable, the New York Football Giants hanging on at the end in a surprise road win, and the Ravens with an upset victory until the fumble return for a TD.

The Dolphins hung in there and almost (well, almost) pulled off a huge upset with their 3^rd string QB.  A very good effort, but now it’s time to go feed Flipper (who will drop less passes than the Miami WRs did last Sunday.)

HSBT Results
Buffalo Bill strikes again, winning this one with 49 points, as all Participants pick the Bills

New York Football Giants 31, Minnesota Vikings 24
How can the Vikes be so good and so bad?  Easy, Kirk Cousins is their QB (he is now 3-8 in prime time or playoff games.)  They go from world beaters to owners of the #1 draft pick during the game.  Inconsistency spelled doom for them.  Bud Grant is still rolling in his grave and in Minnesota the game should be played outdoors.

Giants QB Daniel Jones was great in this game, with his arm and his legs.  The Eagles better get ready.  The kid is for real.

HSBT Results
Comeback Kid (56 points) is back for seconds, while JTB posts the 1st goose-egg of the playoffs

Cincinnati Bengals 17 (plus 7 for that unreal game-changing 98-yard fumble return for a TD), Balti-less Ravens 17
Lady Luck lives in Cincinnati.  The Ravens had the upset all but sealed, until they didn’t.  The Bengal offense sputtered and their O Line is dinged up even more.  Might be an issue this Sunday.  The Ravens D smothered Joe Burrow and his elite receiving corps.  Backup QB Huntley played the game of his career.  Easiest job in the NFL?  Baltimore Ravens WR Coach – since they have none.

HSBT Results
JTB bounces back right away, with 30 points and the win!

Dallas Cowboys 31, Tompa Bay Buccaneers 14
The Bucs played like their 8-9 record.  Dak Prescott played like the league MVP.  Is the GOAT finally done?  Can Dallas K Brett Maher get his head fixed for this Sunday’s game in SF after missing 4 extra points?

The Dallas D is very good and will need to be even better on Sunday night.

HSBT Results
Comeback Kid posts his 3rd victory of the weekend with 45 points, while Pete the Terp doesn’t let JTB be the only Participant with a goose-egg

Stay tuned for the Commish’s expert analysis and Divisional Games predictions later this week.  Start your research and get ready for another great weekend of football!  And – don’t forget to submit your Super Bowl Bonus pick with your game scores.

Until then, I am

The Commish