HSBT

Participants,

Welcome to the 35^th Edition of the Hewes Super Bowl Trophy!!  We finally have determined the 14 teams that will compete for this year’s Super Bowl (SB57), and the playoffs start this Saturday with the 2 of the 6 Super Wild Card Weekend games!  Get your naps in early in the day this weekend, because the schedule has late games (i.e., kickoff around 8:15pm EST or so) on Saturday, Sunday and Monday nights.

We’re disappointed to learn that Ben the Butler has once again landed on IR and will miss this playoff season.  We hope he has a speedy recovery and is in prime form to compete next year.

We also know that everyone is licking their chops in anticipation of wrestling away the coveted trophy from Comeback Kid, who has had it in his possession for the past 2 years!  He did mention to The Commish recently that he’s going for an unprecedented “3-peat” and plans to keep the trophy in the south suburbs of Buffalo.  The smack talk has already started!!

A few reminders before the real action begins as the 7 participants prepare to battle it out.

RULES
Please read the “League Rules” (found on our home page at www.hewessbt.com) to become reacquainted with all you need to know.  I’m available to answer any questions.

MAKING YOUR PICKS
All picks are officially submitted on our site, using the “Submit Picks” tab.  Enter the team names and respective score you believe will be the final game score for each game.  Once you have submitted your scores, they will be time-stamped and sent via email to The Commish, who will load them to the site.  The Commish will not look at any game score submissions until he has submitted his scores in the same manner.  Please – no last minute frantic text messages with your scores.

KEEPING TRACK
Visit the “Standings” tab to get real-time updated game scores and your points as games are played.  This interactive feature was implemented several years ago and has received numerous kudos from the serious game watchers (that have a strong correlation to the eventual HSBT winners).

In-game, real-time smack talk will also be available using the Slack app from your device.  For more details on how to get in on the action during the games, please contact Greg the Great.

REMINDERS (As I Do Every Year)

1. Picks for ALL 6 Super Wild Card Weekend games are to be submitted no later than 4:30pm EST on Saturday, January 14 (which is just prior to the kickoff of the 1st playoff game).
2. Any pick not submitted on time will result in a 25-point penalty for that game (meaning you will get -25 points for those games).
3. No “partial scores” are to be submitted.  We did have this occur several years ago and it went something like this:  “Chicago 24, SF”.  This will also result in the aforementioned -25 points.

It’s shaping up to be another great year, with maybe 11 or 12 teams thinking they have the inside track on winning the Super Bowl.  The highly-anticipated Commish’s expert in-depth analysis and predictions for each game starts below.  Use this information wisely to solidify your thoughts before submitting your picks.

With 7 participants and a total of 13 games in the 2^nd year of the expanded playoff format, will it be a record-setting year for the HSBT?  Pete the Terp set the benchmark with 1,322 points in 2016 (with a 10-1 record).

Let the week of “3’s” begin:

#7 Seattle Seahawks (9-8) @ #2 San Francisco 49ers (13-4)
It’s been raining in the Bay area for the past several days, so the field is going to be a slippery and muddy one (yes, they play on real grass).  However, the field conditions should not matter that much, as the heavily-favored 49ers should have no problem winning the weekend kickoff game.

The Seahawks were supposed to be in a rebuilding mode this season, having traded away longtime QB Russell Wilson to the Broncos for about 50 future draft picks.  Heck, Sports Illustrated projected the Hawks to finish the regular season with a 3-14 record.  So much for the football “experts.”  And would you have guessed that Seattle QB Geno Smith would lead the NFC in TD passes?  He did, with 30.

The 49ers also had some QB issues of note this season, as heir apparent Trey Lance went down early in the season and backup Jimmy Garoppolo also succumbed to injury later in the season.  Enter their 3^rd QB, Brock Purdy, Mr. Irrelevant from the 2022 NFL Draft.  He has fit in well with the 49ers offensive scheme and will be dangerous, assuming he has all his weapons available.

The 49ers beat the Seahawks both times during the regular season and this game will be the 3-peat for them.  Too much firepower on offense and the leagues #1 rated D.  Will a 3^rd string QB win a playoff game?  Yep, and it will be done in Purdy good fashion.

San Francisco 23, Seattle 13

#5 San Diego Los Angeles Chargers (10-7) @ #4 Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8)
The Jaguars?  They weren’t supposed to make the playoffs this year and waited until the final regular season game to do so (by drubbing division foe Tennessee).  The Chargers?  They were supposed to make the playoffs and are planning on a deep run.  This game will feature 2 young QB’s who are upcoming AFC stars.

The visiting Bolts feature an explosive offense, but are down a key player (WR Mike Williams, who the coach decided to play last week in a totally non-relevant game).  Their D is solid and should make some big plays against a young and inexperienced Jags offense.  QB Justin Herbert (who has never lost a Saturday NFL game) could throw for 3 TD’s or have 3 picks.  Ditto for Jags QB Trevor Lawrence.

Turnovers will dictate who comes out on top in this Saturday night game.  This was a close game earlier in the season.  Go with the experience to even up the season record against each other.

Bolts 30, Jags 26

#7 Miami Dolphins (9-8) @ #2 Buffalo Bills (13-3)
Oh my, the Fins are staring at high tide.  Similar to the 49ers, they will be starting their 3^rd string QB.  The oft concussed starting QB is out, meaning there will be no Tu(n)a fish sandwiches on the menu, and his backup Teddy has been suffering like a Bridge (over troubled) water with injuries.  Enter Skylar Thompson.  Who?  Almost as relevant as Mr. Irrelevant.  And their starting RB is most likely out, as well.  Turning up the pressure while they are on D may be their only hope.

The biggest risk for the heavily-favored (almost 2 TDs) Bills is looking ahead to another home game next weekend.  Get ready for the onslaught, and for KR Hines to get his 3^rd kickoff return for a TD this season.

Too many weapons for the Bills, too many injuries for the Fins, too many Mafia in the stands.  And continuing emotional play in support of #3.  After this game, 3 more wins (all for Damar, the Bills fans and the City of Buffalo) and the season will be complete for the Bills.

Buffalo 43, Miami 17 (not in OT)

#6 New York Football Giants (9-7-1) @ #3 Minnesota Vikings (13-4)
Sunday’s kickoff game will be interesting.  The Vikes snuck past the Giants a few weeks ago, 26-24, courtesy of a 61-yd FG in the waning seconds at home.

The Giants over-achieved this season and appear to be ready to make a statement.  Their D has been really coming to life in the past month and RB Saquon Barkley (not to be confused with Charles) is ready to breakout with 150 total yards and a pair of TDs.  Bet on it.

The Vikes, haven’t been the same team since they beat the Bills midway during the season.  QB Kirk Cousins is 3-7 in prime time and playoff games.  Even with that WR group, featuring standout Justin Jefferson.  I see a couple fumbles and possibly a pick 6.

The Vikes are tired and the Giants are hungry.

New York Football Giants 23, Minnesota 20

#6 Baltimore (or Less without Lamar) Ravens (10-7) @ #3 Cincinnati Bengals (12-4)
There will be no coin toss to decide if this game is played in Baltimore or Cincinnati, as the Bengals won last week’s matchup of these 2 AFC North contenders.

The big news for this game, of course, is that Ravens starting QB Lamar Jackson will not play.  Backup Tyler Huntley is questionable, which leads us to – for the 3^rd time in the Super Wild Card Weekend games – another 3^rd string QB (this time, Anthony Brown) starting a playoff game!  Game over?  Not so fast.

The Bengals are looking forward to returning the Super Bowl.  They may also be looking forward to next week’s (presumably) clash with that team from western New York.  If they look to far ahead, they will be looking at the rest of the playoffs from their living room sofas.

The Bengals are loaded with offensive talent and big play makers.  The D is getting better.  The O line is banged up and the Ravens should get their fair share of sacks.

The Ravens recent playoff record is less than impressive.  However,

Ravens 30 (good thing Lamar is playing), Bengals 29
Cincinnati 27, Baltimore 20 (Oops, Lamar is not playing)

#5 “America’s Team” (12-5) @ #4 Tompa Bay Buccaneers (8-9)
Brady is 7-0 lifetime vs Dallas.

The Cowboys have lost 8 road playoff games in a row, and their offense has recently been a Dak-saster.  Long flight home for Jerry’s team and another early exit from the playoffs.

The Brady Bunch 30, “At the Intersection of Preston Rd and Alpha Rd in North Dallas’ Team” 28

I hope you’re as excited for the playoffs as The Commish is.  Rumor has it that 2023 Winner is bringing his ‘A’ game to the competition yet again.

Get ready for good football and get those 6 picks submitted Saturday afternoon before kickoff of the first game!  I’ll be in touch next week with the results of Super Wild Card Weekend and the HSBT!

Until then, I remain

~~The Commish

Participants,

After a tumultuous week, we’ve now landed on a league, owner and NFLPA approved agreement on how this year’s playoffs will be conducted.  Changes will be made as the playoffs move forward with regard to the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals.  More to come on that if (for the Bengals) and when (for the Bills) it transpires.  The best news is that Bills S Damar Hamlin is now out of the hospital in Cincinnati and back home in Buffalo!

The schedule for Wild Card Weekend is now posted on our site under the Standings tab, so please take time to begin studying the 6 games on the slate for this weekend.  As customary, I will have an in-depth analysis and predictions for each of those 6 games later in the week.

We have also updated the other pertinent tabs on the website – Hall of Winners, Participants and Cumulative Stats – with updates since last year’s trophy competition

The first playoff game is Saturday @ 4:30pm, so please get all 6 weekend game picks submitted via our website (Submit Picks tab) prior to kickoff of that game.

Comeback Kid, winner of the last 2 trophies, has indicated that the 3rd time is a charm and he will be going for our first ever “3-peat.”  Looks like we might need the Bills Mafia to knock on his front door and pay him visit.

More to come later in the week.  We are also hoping Ben the Butler has a speedy recovery!

Until then, I remain

The Commish

Congrats to Comeback Kid on his victory last night!

More to come in a few weeks.

~~ The Commish

Participants,

Well, this weekend has finally arrived.  The longest regular season in history (17 games played over an 18-week period), the closest scores in the playoffs (5 of the last 6 games were decided by a FG), and the first time in 33 years the Bengals have played for the Vince Lombardi Trophy.

Game Analysis
On paper this looks like another close game.  The Rams, playing on their home field but officially the visitors for the game, are favored by a scant 4 points.  Surely, they will have the home field advantage and most likely more local fans will be at the game than Bengals supporters – who are 2,189 miles away.  Let’s take a closer look at the game and what the final score will be (we have run 15,000 game simulations to account for every perceived outcome):

“Who Dey” First and 10
Do you remember Broadway Joe and his Super Bowl 3 game prediction for the upstart Jets back in 1969?  Joe Willie Namath was a Southern lad and his team was a decided underdog against the Baltimore Ravens Colts.  Why does this new Joe Cool remind you of him?  Maybe not as flashy off the field, but just as good (or better!) on the field.  3 dynamic WR’s, a top-end RB, and destiny.

The biggest question will be “how many times will Burrow get sacked?”  Vegas has the Over/Under at 10.5  He is the first Super Bowl QB to lead the league in sacks, as he has been unceremoniously dumped on his back-end 51 times in the 16 regular season games he played in.  The Titans dirtied up his jersey 10 times and the Rams front 7 will be looking to add another 15 or so to that total.

So, the Bengals will need to rely on quick slants, an open TE (who is Questionable), and enough gaps for All-Pro RB Mixon to slash for large chunks.

Count on the big name players on the Rams D to come up big.  11 sacks, 2 forced fumbles and a pick-6.

Rams First and 10
When the Rams are on offense (and they will be without TE Higbee), it can be scary for opposing defenses.  WR Cooper Kupp (runneth over) may get his capable hands on at least a dozen tosses from QB Stafford.  And look for OBJ (I wonder if he’s glad he was traded from the Browns mid-season?) to terrorize the suspect Bengal DB’s.  The average running game will come up big, with a healthy Cam Akers and mid-season acquiree Sony (Playstation) Michel.  And now the best of their RB’s (Henderson) has come off IR.

The Bengals D has been steadily improving, so they should not be underestimated.  “Holding” the Chiefs to 24 points last weekend was pretty good, especially in the second half and OT – when they allowed just a FG.  Look for 2 key plays that could turn the game around at critical points.

Game Prediction
“Who Dey” 27, St. Louis LA Rams 26 (Wincinnati rookie K boots the winner with 00:13 left)

HSBT Predictions
First, Ben the Butler submitted his game pick on Saturday, Feb 5 – a full 8 days before kickoff.  No negative points for him in the Big One!  Will it be enough to make up that miniscule 422-point deficit and capture his first-ever trophy?  If Namath could do it, why not?  If he does win, he will shatter the HSBT comeback record of 356 points (set last year by Comeback Kid).

Game Score Predictions & Your Winner of the HSBT Is…

• Comeback Kid – Everyone is in his rearview mirror and he fully intends to keep it that way. A very comfortable 122-point lead.  He’s #2 on the goose-egg all-time list, so who knows what to expect?  Bet on him betting on the Bills.  He’ll be on the medal podium, but not on the highest perch in the middle…
• Greg the Great – Hopes to keep riding the wave of solid picks from the Conference Championships and clinch his 7th.  As long as he doesn’t pick the Seahawks or Bears he’s got as good a chance as anyone.  Oh so, close this year.
• Buffalo Bill (the Packer Backer) – He really needs to end his 18-year trophy drought this weekend. He’s certainly within range and a perfect pick will probably seal the deal.  But how many perfect picks are to be made in the Super Bowl game?  None yet.  Let’s hope he doesn’t go crazy and add to his record 42 goose-eggs.  He’s picked the SB game winner only 17 times in 33 tries.  Advice – do not pick Green Bay.
• 2022 Winner – Yep.
• Pete the Terp – Always aiming for the bronze chicken wing, a SB game delicacy. This will be the most intriguing pick of the weekend.  His biggest comeback to win the trophy is 20 points, and he’ll need significantly more than that to capture #3.  A 169-point challenge lies ahead.  Please do not pick the Ravens.
• JTB – Everyone was probably laughing when he picked Wincinnati for his Super Bowl Bonus points. Nobody is laughing now.  That extra 100 points plus a doozy of a game pick (we’re thinking the Bengals 46, LA 17) and the trophy will be headed back to Ohio.  He needs to go BIG.  Just don’t pick the other Ohio team.
• HenricoFiveOh – This is unfamiliar territory for the all-time trophy leader. If you though JTB’s score was over the top, wait until we post HenricoFiveOh’s – if he hits it, it could be a 1,500 point season and trophy #9!  More than likely, a goose-egg could be staring him in the eye.  Isn’t 8 trophies enough?
• Ben the Butler – OK, a zero-point variance will be required to overcome this deficit. It hasn’t been done in the Super Bowl game, and Pete the Terp is the closest with a variance of 1 in 2017.  Even that variance gave him only 352 points.  A lot of mistakes by the others is needed in order for him to hoist the trophy.

Kickoff is 6:30pm, so be sure to get your picks in before then.  The best of luck to everyone and look for a quick announcement of the winner shortly after the game!  I have my beef on weck, subs, wings (4 levels of hot), cold beverages and real-time game updates ready to go!

Until then, I remain
~~ The Commish

Participants,

Two more amazingly close games, with each separated by a FG – 1 in an unexpected OT!  That makes 5 out of the last 6 games decided by 3 points and every Divisional Round and Conference Championship game decided by 1 score.  This year’s playoff games are not for the faint of heart!

Let’s take a closer look at the Conference Championship games from last Sunday:

Wincinnati Bengals 27, Kansas City Chiefs 24 (in OT)
Welcome to the new Joe Cool.  Coming back from an 18-point 1st half deficit, when it looked like a Chiefs blowout, Bengals QB Joe Burrow engineered repeated drives and the D came up huge after the intermission to literally de-feather the Chiefs headdress right in front of the Arrowhead faithful.

The Chiefs dominated the first 30 minutes with 3 long TD drives and a 21-3 lead.  The second half was a reversal and it was tied at 24 when the clock struck 00:00.  The all-important coin toss was (again) won the by Chiefs, so a long march down the field for an easy TD by one of QB Mahomes’ several speedy (WR’s Hill, Hardeman or Pringle) and reliable (TE Kelce) options would send the Chiefs to their 4th consecutive SB.

Great plan, except nobody informed the Bengals D.  A totally unexpected INT early in the drive set up the Bengals for a stretch of key runs by RB Joe Mixon, leading to the game winning FG by the rookie K, Evan McPherson.

Signed, sealed and delivered – Wincinnati is going to the SB for the 1st time since 1989!  Interestingly, Joe Burrow becomes the first overall #1 QB pick in the NFL Draft to play in the SB.  With a win on 2/13, he would also become the first-ever QB to win the college National Championship, the Heisman and the Super Bowl.  Get ready for some history on Super Sunday!  Will the Chiefs ask the league to re-evaluate the OT rules?

HSBT Update
Buffalo Bill starts to make a move with 84 points (without picking the winning team), with Greg the Great right on his heels with 66 points.  Kudos to him and JTB for picking the Bengals.  Not a whole lot of movement in the current standings.

LA Rams 20, SF 49ers 17
Seeya, Jimmy G.  The Rams D came up huge late in the game and earned another home game on Super Sunday.  The Super Bowl had never been played on one the teams home field until last year, and now we have a 2nd consecutive occurrence.  Another super-close game.  Can anyone stop Rams WR Cooper Kupp?  He led the league in receptions, receiving yards and receiving TD’s (the triple crown for WR’s) and seems to be open on almost every passing play.

I guess money might be able to buy you a SB ring, as the Rams depleted their bank account over the past 2 years to sign several marquis players with this mission in mind.

Did it seem like their were more fans rooting for SF than LA?  They were noisier, at least.  How well will the Bengals faithful travel to SoFi in another week or so?  Playing at home for the SB is SoFi(ne) for the Rams.

HSBT Update
Greg the Great suddenly becomes relevant with a 200-point blockbuster!  Pete the Terp is the only other Participant to earn at least 100 points, which sends a gentle reminder to everyone that he is primed.

HSBT Update
Now we get down to what really matters.  The winners, the losers and the (hmm) forgetters from last weekend.  All was going well with the submission of picks until Sunday at 2:55pm (5 minutes from kickoff of the 1st game and the deadline to submit your picks).  Ben the Butler had not sent in his picks.  Maybe that massive snowstorm had him shoveling the walk or sledding with the kids.  The Commish frantically reached out to him via text and email, with no luck in securing his picks by the 3:00pm deadline.  Wham, -25 points for each of the 2 Conference Championship games.  His pick for the 2nd game was received at 4:05pm.  Sorry we had to enforce the league rules, Ben the Butler.

With that, however, every Participant still has a chance at securing the trophy this year!  Here is how it played out last weekend:

• Comeback Kid – He extended his 102-point lead to a now insurmountable 122-point lead, even without picking a winner last weekend.
• Greg the Great – The biggest movement up the leaderboard, showcased by that 200-point effort in the SF/LA game. From 8th to 2nd in 1 week.  Look out!  He successfully picked both winners and was 1 or 2 Participants to go 2-0.
• Buffalo Bill – A good effort over the weekend and now has 482 points. One more solid pick and he might capture his first trophy since 2003.
• 2022 Winner – In a tie with Buffalo Bill at 482 points. Arguably, the odds-on favorite to shine in the SB and capture his 7th  He’s one of 2 Participants to live in the home state of one of the SB teams, so some local knowledge will be to his advantage.
• Pete the Terp – Just off the pace with 469 points. He’s in the race as we make the final turn and sprint for home.
• JTB – Maintains a stronghold on 6th place with 436 points but has the Bengals winning it all for those precious 100 Bonus points. That, along with living only 120 miles from Wincinnati, should be enough to jettison him past everyone and win his 2nd trophy!
• HenricoFiveOh – Surprisingly below average showing for the all-time trophy winner, with only 53 points in the last 2 games combined. The goose-egg in the 1st game did not help.  Will need a super sprint to the finish to win his 9th  But not out of reach.  With 383 points, he will need to craft some magic on Super Sunday.
• Ben the Butler – Minus 50 points for the weekend. Mount Everest lies ahead.  Can he overcome a 422-point deficit to win his first trophy?  It will help if he submits his game pick on time.

The Commish will issue his game predictions next week, so stay tuned and keep warm!

Until then, I remain
~~ The Commish