HSBT

Participants,

The football world is still reeling after those 4 outstanding games last weekend.  Especially The Greatest Playoff Game in NFL History.  While the Buffalo Bills fans are still reeling from the devasting pain of that loss, we are committed here at the league offices to evaluate the overtime rules going forward.  As it stands right now, we agreed to the current OT rules several years ago to accommodate the all-important TV network ratings.  Seriously, who would want to watch a lengthy overtime playoff game instead of a second rerun of NCIS Miami?  More to come as we gear up for next season.

Turning our attention to the 2 games at hand this weekend that will decide who plays in SB56, let’s look at the matchups:

Wincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills Kansas City Chiefs
Lucky #13 (as in the last 13 seconds of the 4th quarter last Sunday night) propelled the Chiefs to this game, and on paper it looks like a cakewalk for them against an outmanned Bengals D.  The Bengals also have an exciting young QB and a solid group of difference makers on offense, but that D will need to do something special or the offense will need to outscore the Chiefs (highly unlikely) for them to advance.

The Chiefs, meanwhile, are looking for a “wash, rinse and repeat” performance Sunday afternoon to secure a spot in their 3rd consecutive SB appearance.  They come in as 7-point favorites it what could be the biggest blowout of this year’s playoffs.  While their staunch defensive line was unable to get to the mobile Josh Allen last weekend, they will have no problem helping Bengals QB Burrow set a new mark for the most times sacked in a playoff game.  Look for a double-digit sack total.  Adding to the misery for the Bengals will be the offensive firepower of the Chiefs, who may set a new record for points in a conference championship game (currently stands at 51, by the Buffalo Bills).

This game will be exciting until the opening kickoff (which the Chiefs will return for a TD to set the stage for the rest of the game).

Kansas City 54, Limping Tigers 16

San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams
The betting line is telling us that this will the best game to watch on Sunday.  The #6 seeded 49ers have won 2 tough road games in which they were the heavy underdogs.  The Rams almost squandered a massive lead last weekend, only to be bailed out in the end by Tampa Bay miscues.  Let’s take a closer look:

The 49ers come in as 3-point underdogs, meaning this game is a toss-up.  The last time a #6 seed made it to the SB was in 2011 (Green Bay, who did end up winning the SB!).  This team is hot and finds ways to win.  Also on their side is the fact that they have beaten the Rams the last 6 times.  Will this be Lucky #7?  A strong D (especially the front 7) and a few key playmakers on offense (“wide back” Deebo Samuel and TE George Kittle come to mind) should be enough to boost San Francisco to come right back to Sofi Stadium again on Feb 13 for the SB game.

The Rams are looking to be the 2nd team to host the SB on their home field (Tampa Bay did it last year for the first time in NFL history).  A lot of marquis names, especially on D.  Is there a better player in the NFL than #99 DT Aaron Donald? He even gets past the triple-team.  The Rams spent one-half of the U.S. economy national deficit to attract some big names in hopes of winning the Super Bowl – QB Matthew Stafford, RB Sony (Playstation) Michel, LB Von Miller and CB Jalen Ramsey are names that come to mind.  Sunday will determine how that investment has panned out.

Look for a few surprises, including a 49er upset.

San Francisco 24, LA Rams 23

HSBT Thoughts
It is a very tight in the race for the coveted Hewes Super Bowl Trophy, with last year’s winner (Comeback Kid) holding on to a slim lead.  These thoughts must be running through each participants minds as they prepare to make their picks:

• Comeback Kid – Let’s just pick the 2 winners and I’ll be in a great position to take the trophy back for engraving my name again. I have a comfortable 62-point lead over 2022 Winner, so what could possibly go wrong?
• 2022 Winner – Smelling trophy victory #7. What more needs to be said?
• Pete the Terp – It’s great to be this close at this juncture. Those 2 guys ahead of me will make a fatal prediction and I’ll jump into an insurmountable lead with my picks this weekend.
• Buffalo Bill – I trail Pete the Terp by only 1 point and have amassed the most points in Conference Championship games in HSBT history (5,632) while winning the most games, too (a record of 44-22). What could possibly go wrong this weekend?
• Henrico FiveOh – I’m only 15 points behind Buffalo Bill and am confident my picks will set a new record with a zero variance in both Conference Championship Games! Greg the Great’s record 401 points in a game and 521 points in the Conference Championship Games (both set in 2015) will be shattered this weekend.  Hello, trophy #9!
• JTB – I’m only 9 points behind Henrico FiveOh and have a master plan to win my 2nd trophy.  And it doesn’t include the Cleveland Browns.  Matching The Commish’s expert analysis and predictions, I will also have 2 games this weekend with a zero variance, then will repeat it for the SB!  In the process I’ll set a new total points record (currently held by Pete the Terp with 1,322) on my way to trophy #2.
• Ben the Butler – Everyone is looking past me right now, but it will be a bigger surprise when I capture my very first trophy this year! After the Super Bowl, I’ll see all the other Participants in the rearview mirror!
• Greg the Great – Comeback Kid’s greatest league comeback (356 points last year) will be shattered by my performance in the last 3 games. Am I nervous about my chances?  The other Participants should be.  ‘Nuff said!

Be sure to get your game picks submitted before the 3:00pm kickoff the first game on Sunday.  Everyone has done a great job so far this year.

Enjoy the games!
~~ The Commish

Participants,

Well, I guess it doesn’t matter if you’re the #1 seed and had that extra week to rest and prepare.  Both the Tennessee Titans and Green Bay Packers were our #1 seeds this year and both were unceremoniously ushered out of the playoffs.  Both sent packing on a late FG.

Wincinnati Bengals 19, Tennessee(ya) Titans 16
Bengals QB Joe couldn’t Burrow a hole fast enough to avoid being sacked a playoff record 9 times.  But somehow he kept his cool and managed to orchestrate a few key drives that led to a HUGE upset in Nashville.  A big assist from Titans QB Ryan Tannehill, who tossed 3 INT’s – that last one on the Titans final drive especially hurt.  The Music City is certainly singing the Blues today.

The Bengals better find a way to protect their QB next Sunday.

Who Dey?  Dey headed to the AFC Championship Game!

HSBT Update
Greg the Great amassed the most points, with 118, while Ben the Butler kept the goose-egg streak alive.  Interestingly, JTB was the only participant to pick Who Dey but ended up with the 4th most points in this game.  However, he has the Bengals winning it all!

San Francisco 49ers 13, Green Bay Packing It Up 10
The Special teams were anything but for the Pack, as the game’s critical score came on a blocked punt that the 49ers scooped up for a TD.  On a balmy winter night in Wisconsin (10° with a wind chill of around zero), the Packers offense had a major meltdown in the tundra.  They took the opening kickoff right down the field for 7 points.  Game over, right?

49er QB Jimmy G didn’t complete a pass until late in the 2nd quarter and the Packers held the halftime lead, 7-0.  San Francisco amassed a nifty -7 totals yards in the first half.  That’s how bad it was.

Then the snow started as the 2nd half opened and the 49ers guardian angel “wide back” Deebo Samuel saved the day.  Add a few key catches by TE George Kittle (not Bailey) and “It’s a Wonderful Life” for the boys by the Bay.

SF K Robbie Gould remained perfect in the playoffs, with the game-winner splitting the uprights with 00:03 left on the game clock.

Warmer weather will greet the victorious 49ers next Sunday for their 3rd road game of the playoffs.

HSBT Update
JTB took honors with 60 points and the goose-egg tally increased to 6, complements of Buffalo Bill.  Speaking of him, he picked the Packers to win it all.  Would you think with that name he might have chosen that team from western New York??  Serves him right, I guess.  Greg the Great was the only participant to pick the 49ers but earned only the 3rd most points in this one.

LA Rams 30, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27
For the 3rd time this weekend, the visiting team won very late in the 4th quarter (or as time expired) by 3 points to secure a place in next week’s championship game.  The Rams started out firing on all cylinders and looked like they were going run away with a blowout victory.  In the meantime, Tompa Bay was looking for replacement spark plugs, as they sputtered time and again and found themselves down 20-3 at halftime.

When the Rams engineered another TD, it looked as if the Bucs were not going to be the repeat Super Bowl champs any longer.  But then the GOAT got a couple of breaks and the Rams started to make some unforeseen errors, allowing the Bucs to tie it up late in the 4th quarter.  On the final drive of the day, the tired Bucs D again allowed Rams WR Cooper to again get open deep in the secondary and Kupp in another catch.  A 30-yard FG as the clock struck 00:00 and the Rams sneak out of Florida with a road playoff win.

Being back in Sofi Stadium will be Sofine for the Rams.

HSBT Update
A tie for the most points, with Buffalo Bill and Comeback each earning 108 points.  Greg the Great and Pete the Terp also tie for the least points, extending the goose-egg streak to 7 straight games.

Buffalo Bills 36, Kansas City Chiefs 42 (OT)
For the 4th time this weekend, the visiting team won by 3 points very late in the 4th quarter (this time with an improbable TD pass with 00:13 left on the game clock)!  Wait – there’s no way the Chiefs could possibly take the ensuing kickoff into FG position with those few, scant seconds left.  But they did, and then a coin toss decided who would win this ultra-classic battle of 2 teams that would not quit.  I’m sure the Buffalo sports media won’t have an opinion on that rule for OT play.

An unbelievable heart-wrenching loss for the Bills.  In the end, their tired D just couldn’t keep up with the Chiefs speedy arsenal of WR’s.  Time and again, the Bills rallied to keep the game within 1 score.

I’m not sure you will see a more exciting game with a heart-stopping loss for the Bills faithful.

HSBT Update
Comeback Kid again on Sunday amassed the most points, with 114.  I’m sure he would have given up all those points for a Bills victory.  Greg the Great made sure the goose-egg streak remained intact.

HSBT Update
What a miserable weekend for the participants. 2-2 was the best individual record (JTB) for these 8 prognosticators and overall they were 8-24.  Definitely a record for futility and a lot of soul-searching will be evident in the upcoming week.

• Comeback Kid – Shattered by the score of the last game of the weekend, but is now your overall leader with 473 points
• 2022 Winner – although he went 0-4 over the weekend, he was able to stay in serious contention and is only 102 points off the lead with 371 points
• Pete the Terp – Moved up to Bronze Chicken Wing status with a glum but fairly productive weekend. He now has 346 points
• Buffalo Bill – Remains in 4th place just 1 point behind Pete the Terp, with 345 points
• Henrico FiveOh – Has 330 points, adding to the close totals after this past weekend
• JTB – His 321 points are keeping him the running, while his 2-2 weekend record was the best
• Ben the Butler – Had a quiet weekend and now has 266 points. He’ll need to step it up going forward if he still has his eyes on the trophy
• Greg the Great – Not so great this weekend, with a couple of goose-eggs on Sunday. But with the majority of points still out there for the taking, he’ll need to hone in his accuracy for next weekend’s games

4 unbelievable endings to 4 nail-biting games which may have been the best weekend of games in a very long time.  Once you start to think ahead to the Conference Championship games, keep in mind that 55% of all points are earned with only 3 games left in the competition.  So, everyone is still very much in the running for HSBT34!

Until later in the week, I remain

~  The Commish

Participants,

After the weekend bludgeonings during the Super Wild Card games, we are now left with the “Elite 8” of the NFL.  There are 4 terrific games on the slate, starting Saturday at 4:30pm EST.  The odds-makers are at odds with whom to pick to move on to the Conference Championship games, so let me lend some clarity to the challenges ahead.

First, a gentle reminder that all your weekend game picks – including the Super Bowl Bonus pick – are to be submitted no later than 4:29pm EST on Saturday, January 23, 2022.

#4 Cincinnati Bengals (11-7) @ #1 Tennessee Titans (12-5)
Is he going to play?  If he does, how effective will he be?  Will it even matter?  These are the questions looming in the heads of the Titan coaching staff surrounding RB Derrick Henry.  He’s back on the practice field after a 10-week absence.

The 3’s Have It

• The Titans are favored by 3 tiny, miniscule points (remember – the home team always gets a 3-point edge)
• Tennessee is currently viewed as the #3 ranked playoff team in the AFC, behind those guys from western New York and Kansas City
• The Tennessee running game ranked #3 in the NFL, in spite of RB Henry’s absence for half the regular season.

Will Bengals QB Joe remain hot for another game or will he look for place to Burrow a hole after a down-to-earth performance?  Look for Tennessee to “titan” their D to keep that potent Wincinnati offense in check.

This will be the least exciting game of the weekend, as the Bengals take an early lead and force Tennessee to move the ball through the air too often.  Titan’s QB Tannehill will have one of his worst passing performances of the season.

Who Dey 30, #1 AFC Seed 26

#6 San Francisco 49ers (11-7) @ #1 Green Bay Packers (13-4)
Jimmy G has a bum thumb, bruised shoulder and cracked bone in his hand.  Mr. Discount Double Check (what is with that hair?) is getting over a turf toe issue.  How these 2 play on Saturday night will determine the victor.  The Pack is favored by 4 points and it’s a good thing you will be enjoying this game from your home, as it will be in the single digits in Titletown this weekend.

The 49er’s are still basking in the glory of that improbable win in Big D last weekend.  Look for the offense to totally unleash All-Pro WR/RB Deebo Samuel for 150 yards and 3 TD’s.  Look for Aaron Rodgers to put up that same stat line – in the first half, with a pair of TD connections to Davante Adams.

This game should be a toss-up, with the winner being able to conquer the elements.

Packers 31, San Francisco 27

#4 LA Rams (13-5) @ #2 Tompa Bay Buccaneers (14-4)
The Rams were surgically ousted from the playoffs a year ago in the Divisional Round, but blew out the Cardinals last weekend as the kickoff to their Revenge Tour 2022.  Very intentionally they have added some key veterans (Matthew Stafford, Von Miller, OBJ, Jalen Ramsey, Sony Michel, etc.) this year to make a full run at the SB56 title.

The Bucs surgically destroyed the Eagles last weekend, but have a couple of question marks on their OL that may force TB out of the pocket (can he run that far?) more times than he would like.  The D is solid, but will it hold up against the Rams powerhouse?

Everything points to a Rams upset, but someone forgot to tell that to the GOAT!

Bucs 26, Rams 23 (OT)

#3 Buffalo Bills (12-6) @ #2 Kansas City Chiefs (13-5)
The weekend finale is shaping up to be one of the finest games you will see.  Ever.  In a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship game, the Chiefs are looking to even the regular season series as they were manhandled 38-20 in front of a raucous Arrowhead crowd back in Week 5.  The Bills are looking to play like last weekend, when they made up for 20 years of disappointment against the Patriots.  That healing has started in a very serious way.

The Chiefs are favored because they are in Arrowhead.  The offense has been improving, but still has inconsistencies that the Bills will exploit.  The Bills are the underdogs because they are in Arrowhead.  Can Josh Allen mirror last week’s performance?  He may need to.

The winner will have a home game for the AFC Championship Game.

Kansas City 27, Buffalo 30 (OT)

Welcome to Highmark Stadium on Sunday, January 30!

Gentle reminder #2 – all 4 game picks, plus your Super Bowl Bonus Pick – are to be submitted no later than this Saturday at 4:29pm EST.  I can’t wait for the action to begin.  Get those chores out of the way on Saturday morning, load up on your favorite food and beverages, and settle in that comfy chair by the fireplace!

~~ The Commish

Participants,

It truly was a wild in the opening weekend of the NFL playoffs!

Wincinnati Bengals 26, Oakland Las Vegas Raiders 19
That final Bagel TD should not have counted and the officials later admitted that the play should have been re-done.  And the Raiders almost scored on that final drive, only to come up short on the game’s last play.  It would have been another OT thriller, where the boys from Sin City had an unbeaten record during the regular season.  Those refs will not be calling any more games in this year’s playoffs.

That Joe Burrow to Jamarr Chase connection was evident throughout the game, as the Bagels win their first playoff game in over 30 years.  The Raiders had the messiest of seasons and should be commended for even making the playoffs.

Who Dey?  Dey playing next weekend.

HSBT Update – 2022 Winner starts out strong, with 53 points and a commanding lead of 7 points over Buffalo Bill, Comeback Kid and Pete the Terp.

Buffalo Bills 47, New England Patsies 17
7 possessions and 7 TD’s.  An almost perfect passer rating.  Can you spell U-T-T-E-R  D-O-M-I-N-A-T-I-O-N??  The Bills were clicking on every conceivable cylinder, while the Patriots (playing their first-ever Wild Card game on the road under Coach Belichick) understandably never warmed up in the 5° weather.

Bills QB Josh Allen was spectacular in his passing and running game, and patiently dissected the Patriots in every conceivable way.  NE rookie QB Mac Jones delivered a rookie playoff performance, as expected.

Chalk one up for the Bills Mafia.  I’m sure during the post game interview, Belichick said 1 less word than his normal no words.

HSBT Update – Henrico FiveOh takes the honors in this one, with 67 points, edging Comeback Kid and 2022 Winner.

Tampa Bay 31, Philadelphia 15
A second case of domination pops up, this time in Florida.  No hospitalizations, but the Eagles offense spent most of the afternoon on life support.  It didn’t matter how many RB’s or WR’s were out for Tompa Bay, Bucs QB Brady just kept carving up the Philadelphia D like their name-brand cream cheese.

The Eagles did look better than the Patriots, however, if that is any consolation.  It definitely “Hurts So Good Bad” ¯ for the Eagles QB.

HSBT Update – Henrico FiveOh takes this one, too, with Comeback Kid close on his tail, while Ben the Butler posted the 2nd goose-egg of these playoffs.

San Francisco 23, Jerry’s Team 17
It wasn’t the fact that the Cowboys lost, it was more of HOW they lost.  A real nail-biter right to the bitter end.  Did the Cowboys really expect to win after committing 14 penalties, most of them coming at key times.  As CBS announcer Tony Romo observed after the 1st penalty of the day, “Penalties don’t matter until they matter.”

What were the Cowboys thinking on that last drive?  Coaching staff changes coming up soon.  Stay posted for the fallout.  This 49er team is for real, with great balance on both sides of the ball (when healthy).

HSBT Update – Greg the Great posts his 1st win of the season with 48 points, while JTB keeps the goose-egg totals growing.

Kansas City 42, Pittsburgh 21
The Steelers gave their faithful some hope after taking a 7-0 lead in the 2nd quarter.  Then, the Chiefs woke up and that was that.  Kansas City was too fast (don’t they have about 6 WR’s who run under 4.3 in the 40?) and creative, as the Steelers looked more sluggish as the game wore on.  Was this the last Big Ben sighting?

HSBT Update – JTB reverses his fortunes from the last game, by amassing 73 points (highest for the Super Wild Card round).

LA Rams 34, Arizona Cardinals 11
Another game, another thorough beat down.  The star-loaded Rams took control of this one early and never took their foot off the pedal.  Rams QB Stafford was efficient, as was the run game, with the re-energized Cam Akers.  The D looked mighty tough, too.

What happened to the Cardinals?  They were the darlings of the league early in the season and faded mightily down the stretch.  QB Kyler Murray looked sloppy and was highly inefficient for most of the evening.  More than a refresh will be needed and it will take more than sunflower seeds to get these birds back as serious contenders.

HSBT Update – Ben the Butler took the honors in this one, eking out 2022 Winner.  Meanwhile, Greg the Great posted his 2nd goose-egg of the playoffs.

HSBT Standings
After a 3-day playoff binge, including 3 late nights, for the 1st time in HSBT history we have a tie after the Wild Card games!!  This is now shaping up to be the closest competition yet.

• 2022 Winner & Henrico FiveOh – sitting atop the perch with 217 points and a nifty 5-1 record. 2022 Winner is the leader with a variance of 12.0
• Comeback Kid – a very nice opening weekend with 200 points, sporting a 5-1 record, too. He’s #2 with a variance of 12.75
• Ben the Butler surprised the critics with a terrific start, amassing 175 points. Will this be his year to finally capture the trophy?
• Buffalo Bill is off to a slower than usual start in 4th place, and has the weekend’s only 6-0 record. Willy be able to improve his performance next weekend?  He is the all-time leader with 6,480 points in the Divisional Round games.
• Pete the Terp had a quiet and moderately efficient weekend with 159 points (his 2nd highest total for Wild Card Weekend.) For sure, his eyes are focused on this coming weekend.
• JTB earned 143 points and has a little catching up to do, and the goose-egg was a big downer for him. He was in a similar position in 2018, when he captured the trophy.
• Greg the (not so) Great had a slow start, with the only sub-100 point total of the weekend. He’ll be looking to dramatically improve on that this coming weekend.

There are 4 dandy matchups this weekend, and league offices are busy with the usual analytics and evaluations.  Look for my analysis and game predictions later in the week.

Until then, I am

~~ The Commish

Participants,

Welcome to the 34^th Edition of the Hewes Super Bowl Trophy!!  We finally have determined the 14 teams that will compete for this year’s Super Bowl (SB56), and the playoffs start this Saturday with the 2 of the 6 Super WildCard Weekend games!  Get your naps in early this weekend, because the schedule has late games (i.e., kickoff around 8:15pm EST or so) on Saturday, Sunday and Monday nights.

It’s great to hear that all 7 participants are eagerly awaiting their chance to win the trophy this year and get it out of the hands of last year’s winner, Comeback Kid!  He did mention to The Commish recently that due to COVID-19 and supply chain issues, he is planning to keep the trophy in western New York this coming year!  The smack talk has already started!

A few reminders before the real action begins as the 7 participants prepare to battle it out.

RULES
Please read the “League Rules” (found on our home page at www.hewessbt.com) to become reacquainted with all you need to know.  I’m available to answer any questions.

MAKING YOUR PICKS
All picks are officially submitted on our site, using the “Submit Picks” tab.  Enter the team names and respective score you believe will be the final game score for each game.  Once you have submitted your scores, they will be time-stamped and sent via email to The Commish, who will load them to the site.  The Commish will not look at any game score submissions until he has submitted his scores in the same manner.  Please – no last minute frantic text messages with your scores.

KEEPING TRACK
Visit the “Standings” tab to get real-time updated game scores and your points as games are played.  This interactive feature was implemented several years ago and has received numerous kudos from the serious game watchers (that have a strong correlation to the eventual HSBT winners).

REMINDERS (As I Do Every Year)

1. Picks for ALL 6 Super WildCard Weekend games are to be submitted no later than 4:30pm EST on Saturday, January 15 (which is just prior to the kickoff of the 1st playoff game).
2. Any pick not submitted on time will result in a 25-point penalty for that game (meaning you will get -25 points for those games).
3. No “partial scores” are to be submitted.  We did have this occur several years ago and it went something like this:  “Chicago 24, SF”.  This will also result in the aforementioned -25 points.  Given that Comeback Kid won the trophy last year by a scant 36 points, every point counts!

It’s shaping up to be another great year, with maybe 11 or 12 teams thinking they have the inside track on winning the Super Bowl.  The highly-anticipated Commish’s expert in-depth analysis and predictions for each game starts below.  Use this information wisely to solidify your thoughts before submitting your picks.

With 7 participants and a total of 13 games in this expanded playoff format, will it be a record-setting year?  Pete the Terp set the benchmark with 1,322 points in 2016 (with a 10-1 record).  Will 1,400 points be the new benchmark?

#5 Las Vegas Raiders (10-7) @ #4 Cincinnati Bengals (10-7)
The Raiders waited until OT of the very last game of the season to claim a playoff berth, while the Bagels clinched their spot a few games earlier.  Both teams seasons were marked by a high degree of inconsistency, but both got hot during the last 4 weeks (Las Vegas was 4-0 and Cincinnati was 3-1, with their loss on the final weekend of the season).

Cincinnati has a red-hot offense, featuring QB Joe Burrow and rookie WR standout, Jamarr Chase (Geaux Bayou Bengals).  A solid running game and 2 other top-notch receivers makes the Bengals dangerous.  Their D, however, has been very accommodating to opposing offenses.

The Raiders have never lost to the Bengals in the playoffs, while Cincinnati hasn’t won a playoff game in their last 7 appearances.

The Bengals blew out the Raiders in Vegas back in late November (Week 11) and maybe it’s payback time for the team from Sin City.

Sorry to spoil the Bengal celebration, but this one is for John Madden

Las Vegas 26, (now 0-8) Bengals 23 (in OT)

#6 New England Patriots (10-6) @ #3 Buffalo Bills (11-6)
This will be the rubber match between these 2 foes, with each winning on the road this season.  The weather is forecasted to be balmy for western NY – a slight chill in the air (approaching zero at game time) with a mild breeze for the 8:15pm kickoff.  No snow forecasted – yet.

The Pats are featuring their rookie QB, a solid running game and a stout D.  The Bills are featuring QB Josh Allen and 21 other starters.  Bills Head Coach Sean McDermott has never lost a home playoff game while in Buffalo.  NE Head Coach Bill Belichik has won “a few” road playoff games.

Look for the Bills to try to establish their reemergent running game, then light it up in the 2^nd half.  When was the last time a rookie QB won a playoff game?  10 years ago.  Make that 11.

Buffalo 31, New England 19

#7 Philadelphia Eagles (9-8) @ #2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13-4)
OK, so the Eagles are 0-6 in regular season games against this year’s playoff teams.  Game over?  Not so fast.  The Eagles have the #1 run offense in the league and the Bucs have had problems with teams that also feature a good running QB.

Did you know that the GOAT (34) has more playoff wins than the Philadelphia franchise (23)?  Expecting high winds in Tampa this Sunday afternoon, which should negatively impact the passing game for both teams.  Tampa’s offense is banged up and a key WR left the field shirtless a couple weeks ago, never to return.

This one smells like an upset for the road team.  Did I mention that the GOAT has 35 playoff wins?

Tompa Bay 26, Philadelphia 20 (in OT)

#6 San Francisco 49’ers (10-7) @ #3 “America’s Team” (12-5)
SF is riding a hot (but injured) hand with QB Jimmy G.  Dallas has played pretty mediocre the last month under GM Jimmy J.  This is a storied rivalry, with the last 4 winners of past playoff games winning the Super Bowl.  Not sure that is going to happen this year, but who knows?

The 49er’s are playing better football right now.

SF 24, Dallas (reduced to “North Texas’ Team”) 23

#7 Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7-1) @ #2 Kansas City Chiefs (12-5)
“We can’t win this game.  So, let’s just go out and have some fun.”  Quote from Steelers (has)Ben Roethlisberger.  This is shaping up to be a sleeper, with the Chiefs favored by a whopping 13 points.

Can the Chiefs offense be stopped?  They appear to be running on all cylinders, even with key players out for various reasons.  Just plug and play the next guy up.  KC QB Mahomes has 15 TD passes and 1 INT in the playoffs.  Their D has come alive during the second half of the regular season.

A lot of things need to happen for Pittsburgh to pull the big (Ben) upset.  Maybe DE TJ Watt can get a dozen more sacks to add on to his league record 22.5 this season?  Maybe rookie RB Harris can go for 150 yards and 3 scores?  Maybe Ben has 2 or 3 great throws left in his arm?

Maybe not.  Have fun, Ben.

Chiefs 43 (ouch), Steelers 17 (not in OT)

#5 Arizona Cardinals (11-6) @ #4 LA Rams (12-5)
The Cardinals fluttered into the playoffs with a broken wing.  The Rams clinched their division with a loss.  The first-ever Monday Night Football playoff games, thanks to the $$ machine known as the NFL.

Arizona is 1-9 vs. the Rams since 2017, but they traded road wins against each other this season.  2 fun offenses to watch, but the Rams D is so good that Cardinal QB Kyler Murray will need to have his best game of the season to keep this one close.  Rams QB Stafford has an arsenal of tools at his disposal.

LA 30, Arizona 24

I hope you’re as excited for the playoffs as The Commish is.  Rumor has it that 2022 Winner will be bringing his ‘A’ game to the competition yet again.

Get ready for good football and get those 7 picks submitted Saturday afternoon before kickoff of the first game!  I’ll be in touch next week with the results of Super WildCard Weekend and the HSBT!

Until then, I remain

~~The Commish