HSBT

Participants,

Welcome to the weekend where some serious football will be played!  Now that we have eliminated 6 pretenders, it’s time for the Elite 8 to get down to business.

We have 4 terrific games, starting this Saturday at 4:35pm EST, so please sure to submit your picks (using the “Submit Picks” tab on our website) for all 4 weekend games, PLUS your Super Bowl Bonus Pick, no later than 4:30pm.

Historically, the Divisional Round provides the most points of any playoff weekend for the HSBT Participants, with 31% of all the points earned.  So, some extra analysis and data modeling has gone into the game predictions before sharing them with you.

Before we jump into the game analysis and predictions, it is appropriate to review the status of the HSBT competition and the thoughts that one must consider before placing those ill-fated picks on Saturday:

• JTB – He is our current leader (automatically adds pressure to stay in that lofty position) and has a big pick to make in the Cleveland @ KC game on Sunday. Dawg gonna it…  He’s never been in the lead after the Wild Card Weekend.
• HenricoFiveOh – Sitting comfortably in 2nd place right now, with a smug feeling that no matter what happens this weekend he has a legitimate shot to win it all – again. Last year at this time he was also in 2nd place and ended up capturing the trophy.  But he has the 3rd lowest % of correct picks in league history.  On the flip side, he holds the record for most points in a Divisional Round game, with 205 (back in 2012).  Will he be dressed from head to toe in Bills gear?
• Greg the Great – No need to worry about a pick for the Seahawks or da Bears, but the Bills are looming large. The Divisional Round games have not been kind to him historically (averaging 43.9 points per game – 2nd lowest in HSBT history).  Also, is he going to pick Mr. Discount Double Check to defeat the Rams?
• Buffalo Bill – Squandered the chance last weekend to keep his historically excellent start (with a record of 73 correct picks) as the foundation for a run to capture the elusive trophy. As his name indicates, he will also have a difficult decision to make when the Ravens invade Orchard Park on Saturday night for a thriller.  He is also the all-time point leader in the Divisional Round, so that should help keep the blood pressure and jittery nerves in check.  Maybe.
• Ben the Butler – Licking his chops as he prepares for this weekend. He’s the all-time points per game leader in the Divisional Round, with 56.2, so he’s gotta be feeling confident.  Plus, he doesn’t have to worry about his heart being tugged by a favorite team as he crafts out his picks.  This could be a big weekend for Ben the Butler.
• 2021 Winner – Taking the analytical approach will result in a terrific weekend for him and he is projected to be the HSBT leader after the Divisional Round games have concluded on Sunday night. With the lowest average game variance in HSBT history (16.92), he is primed to make another run to capture his 7th trophy.
• Pete the Terp – It all comes down to 1 game pick for him. His former beloved Buffalo Bills or his current beloved Baltimore Ravens.  Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson?  A tough decision is pending.  One senses he is starting to make a silent move to capture his 3rd trophy and this weekend might be where it all commences.
• Comeback Kid – He’s been in this position before and used this round to catapult him on a path to victory. A historic slow starter who just improves every week.  He really Bill-ieves in Buffalo so watch out for his game pick!

ANALYSIS & GAME PREDICTIONS

#6 LA Rams (11-6) @ #1 Green Bay Packers (13-3)
The last time these 2 teams met was in the 2018 regular season, with the Rams narrowly beating the Pack, 29-27.  Later that season the Rams went to Super Bowl 53 and the Pack did not make the playoffs.

The unstoppable Packer All-Pro WR Davante Adams (115 receptions, 1,374 yards and 12 TD’s) will face the unflappable top-rated Rams defense and All-Pro DB Jalen Ramsey, who a week ago shut down Megatron II in the Rams win over the Seahawks.  Whoever wins this matchup will most likely advance to the NFC Championship game.

The QB comparison is unfair – the 2nd GOAT #12, Aaron Rodgers (probably the league’s co-MVP with Bills QB Josh Allen!!) vs. Jared Goff/Jon Wolford.  The RB comparison is unfair – Aaron Jones vs. Rookie Cam Akers.  And, the weather will not be unfair, with game time forecast in the low 30’s (balmy for Green Bay this time of year) and a slight chance of snow.

The road to Super Bowl 55 runs through Green Bay.
Green Bay Packers 23, LA Rams 16

#5 Baltimore Ravens (12-5) @ #2 Buffalo Bills (14-3)
This is shaping up to be THE game of the week, with 2 dueling QB’s launching their attacks in Orchard Park, NY.  Both teams have not lost a game in several weeks and appear to be at their peaks right now.  The Ravens will run, run, run until the Bills can stop them – if they can.  A daunting task, for sure, against the #1 rushing team in the NFL this season.

On the other side, the Bills fate will rest with the arm and legs of QB Josh Allen if they hope to advance.  Another 6,700 fans will be allowed in the stadium and they will need to create the noise level as if it’s a full house.  The Bills have a lot of offensive weapons in the receiving corps, but not much in the running game (especially with the injury to Zack Moss).

Like last week in Orchard Park, this one will also go down to the last series of plays, with rookie K Bass making the game-winning FG from… 47 yards!
Buffalo Still Bill-ieving 24, Baltimore Ravens 23

#6 Cleveland Browns (12-5) @ #1 Kansas City Chiefs (14-2)
Do we smell an upset in the making?  Or, is this just the Dawg Pound invading Missouri?  Either way, the high-flying team from “the mistake on the lake” will get to tangle with the AFC’s top team as the Sunday slate of games gets going.

Very, very hard to pick against the heavily favored Chiefs, who are well-rested and have an arsenal of weapons at their disposal.  But they also have a few chinks in the armor and Cleveland plans to exploit those with a solid run-first offense and opportunistic D.

The Chiefs come out rusty while the Browns are still riding high from last week’s beat-down of the Steelers.
Kansas City Chiefs 26, Cleveland Browns 27 (and heading to Buffalo for the AFC Championship!)

#5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (12-5) @ #2 New Orleans Saints (13-4)
Two over-40 quarterbacks might lead to one taking a nap.  I wouldn’t.  As was mentioned a week ago, it’s so difficult to beat a team 3 times in 1 season.  The Saints are 2-0 vs. the Brady Bunch this season.  These 2 teams are very similar and very evenly matched.

Saints QB Drew Brees is getting healthier and it doesn’t hurt having WR Michael Thomas back on the field.  RB Alvin Kamara is a beast running and catching the ball and could be up for 3 TD’s.  On the flip side, Bucs QB #12 has 3 very talented WR’s that will pressure the Saints DB’s all night, but the ground game has been less than impressive (but sneaky).

The Saints are favored, but are you going to bet against Brady in the playoffs?
New Orleans Saints (for the 3rd time this season) 31, Tampa Bay Bucs 27

Reminder to all – please be sure to submit your picks on time!  Now, sit back and enjoy the 4 awesome games this weekend!

Until I send out my post weekend wrap-up early next week, I remain,
~~ THE Commish

It truly was a wild weekend, with only 2 of the 6 home teams advancing to the Divisional Round and the Browns exceeding the over/under (47.5 points) by themselves in a whoopin’ of the Steelers, 48-37, during the weekend finale Sunday night.  The #3 and #4 seeds in the AFC and NFC are now out of the playoffs.

Let’s get into a review of the Super Wild Card Weekend games.

Buffalo Bills 27, Indianapolis Colts 24
What a way to begin the playoffs in front of 6,700 Bills faithful for the 1st time in 25 years.  A see-saw battle that could have gone either way to the very last play, when Colts QB Philip Rivers threw a Hail Mary that was knocked down by the Bills.  All one could think of was while the ball floated towards the Bills end zone was the Week 10 “Hail Murray” that gave the Cardinals a win over the Bills in the desert – their last loss.

The Bills lived up to all the hype for the most part and came up with several clutch plays to keep drives alive.  QB Josh Allen put a stamp on his All-Pro season and was throwing darts all over the field when not making a critical 3rd down runs.  You gotta question the Colts decision-making and wonder how things would have ended if K Blankenship had not clinked one off the upright earlier in the day.  It wasn’t a 47-yard wide right miss, but it could be the start of redemption for the Bills.  Kudo’s to the Bills WR’s – Stefon Diggs proved he’s a star, the diminutive Cole Beastley continued to make clutch catches over the middle and Gabriel Davis displayed some big time “toe drag swag” on 2 or 3 grabs.

2021 Winner starts off the HSBT post-season with 65 points, taking the early (and insurmountable?) lead.

LA Rams 30, (Sleepless in) Seattle Seahawks 20
The Rams started a backup QB John Wolford, who immediately got his bell rung, forcing injured Jared Goff (recovering from surgery to his right thumb 2 weeks ago) to come in.  So much for the Rams chances…  The Seahawks continued to struggle mightily on offense and combined with the LA top-notch D, Hawks QB Russell Wilson had a lousy day.  Their OL needs an upgrade and it became obvious as Wilson was scrambling most of the day when he wasn’t getting sacked.

The Rams win this season’s rubber match and are advancing, and hope star DT Aaron Donald will be OK after a rib cartilage injury that forced him to miss most of the 2nd half.

Pete the Terp earns 65 points in this game, while Ben the Butler chalks up a goose-egg.

Tampa Bay Football Team 31, Washington Football Team 23
The game script for both teams followed the predictions of almost everyone.  The GOAT was not pressured too often and consistently found his WR targets, who now seem to be a very strong and imposing group going forward.  On the other side, Washington fill-in QB Heinecke (bet you can guess what his favorite beer is) played admirably and kept the WFT within a TD for the lead most of the night.

Tampa Bay seems to be peaking at the right time, which is usually the case when #12 is your playoff QB.  This team will be dangerous next weekend.  Meanwhile, the WFT gets to mull over a 7-9 season and try to come up with a nickname.

Comeback Kid takes honors in this one with 45 points.

Baltimore Colts Ravens 20, Houston Oilers Tennessee Titans 13
We all expected a classic in this one and got it!  Great way to start the Sunday action!  The Ravens kept Titans RB Derrick Henry in check all day (50 yards rushing compared to his season total of 2,027) and QB Lamar Jackson had several key dashes (including 1 for a TD).  The D ruled the day for both teams and the low score reflected it.  This game proved how hard it is to beat a team 3 times in a row, which the Titans had a chance to accomplish.

Disappointment for the Titans, who went to the conference championship last year.  The Ravens have won their last 6 and a classic battle is brewing for next Saturday night in Orchard Park.

Henrico FiveOh begins his Sunday domination with 74 points.

New Orleans Saints 21, da Bears 9
It was fun to watch this game on Nickelodeon and to see winning coach Payton getting slimed afterwards.  Not a stellar performance by either team, but enough by the Saints to host another game next weekend.  It was the Saints D that came though in the clutch, making life miserable for Bears QB Trubisky all day.  da Bears backed their way into the playoffs and left New Orleans through the back door to avoid any errant slime.

Henrico FiveOh continued to shine, earning 111 points to lead the way, breaking Greg the Great’s mark of 110 for a Wild Card game that was set in 1996.

Dawgs Gotta Eat 48, Patheticburgh 37
Was this a Sci-Fi movie?  Before you could get a second beer, da Browns were up 28-0 in the 1st quarter!  The Steel Curtain was reduced to an electronic underground fence running on less than 5 (TJ) Watts.  The Browns faithful were waiting for a Ben comeback and it did start getting a little tight around the collar in the 3rd quarter, but Browns RB Nick Chubb had a timely TD dash that ultimately put away the home team.  The Browns not only finally made the playoffs, but won on the road (and in Pitifulburgh, where they had lost 17 in a row!)

Ben the Butler leads the way with 96 points, as HenricoFiveOh cools down with a rare goose-egg.

HSBT STANDINGS
After 6 (instead of the customary 4) games completed, as predicted we have a few new Wild Card Round records:

• JTB (290 points) and HenricoFiveOh (245 points) set new weekend standards for points, surpassing Comeback Kid’s record of 243 set in 2010
• The aforementioned HenricoFiveOh set a single-game scoring mark of 110 points

Current standings going into the Divisional Round games this weekend:

• JTB holds the lead with 290 points – enjoy the Dawg bones!
• HenricoFiveOh is also off to a very good start with 245 points
• Greg the Great is currently in 3rd with 184 points, plus he won’t have to worry about picking his Seahawks or da Bears going forward
• Buffalo Bill is off to his usual strong start with 172 points, good for 4th place at this time
• Ben the Butler capped off the weekend with a nice 136-point effort after missing the last 2 seasons
• 2021 Winner has 132 points and will be very dangerous going forward
• Pete the Terp is in 7th with 129 points and will have the difficult choice to make for the upcoming Baltimore at Buffalo game
• Rounding out the scoring is Comeback Kid with 128 points, but he stated that a comeback is in the works for this year!

Kudo’s to all Participants for properly submitting their weekend scores on time.  Let’s keep it going this weekend, when the scores for all 4 weekend games are to be submitted no later than 1:00pm EST on Saturday, January 16.  There is a lot of football left and roughly 87% of the total points remain up for grabs!

I’ll be back with another analysis and set of predictions later in the week for the Divisional Round games.

Until then, I am

~~ The Commish

SUPER WILD CARD WEEKEND PREVIEW AND PREDICTIONS

Welcome to the 33rd season of the Hewes Super Bowl Trophy (HSBT) which will culminate in crowning a champion at the conclusion of the 55th Super Bowl on February 7.

Before moving into the official league analysis and predictions, a couple key reminders for all Participants:

• Your Super Wild Card Weekend predictions are to be submitted on our dedicated website using the “Submit Picks” tab at the top.  This will provide for a timestamp and a receipt that your picks were properly submitted.
• Your picks for all 6 games this weekend must be submitted no later than 1:00pm on Saturday, January 9 (5 minutes prior to kickoff of the 1st weekend game).  Our website has a Countdown Timer in the upper right section to help you.
• If a game pick is submitted after the start of a game, that pick will result in -25 points for that game, but your remaining picks will be accounted for as if they were submitted on time.
• I would encourage you to test the Submit Picks function to be sure everything is working on your end.  You may also want to check your Spam email if you are having trouble locating a confirmation email from The Commish that your picks were properly and timely submitted.

What an end to the regular season during Week 17.  How can a 10-6 team not make the playoffs while a 7-9 team does?  While the 10-5 Miami Dolphins (with one of the top rated defenses in the NFL) were busy getting blasted out of the playoffs like an Elon Musk SpaceX launch, the Washington Redskins Football Team was taking care of business and defaulting into the playoffs by winning the super-weak NFC East (who sported a combined regular season record of 23-40-1).  Had they lost, the New York Football Giants would have “earned” the division with a miserable 6-10 record.

In the AFC, you had to be at least 11-5 to make the playoffs this year – a record in the NFL.

HSBT By the Numbers
As we begin to embark upon our 33rd season, a few key milestones could be achieved by the Participants:

• HenricoFiveOh is going for the first-ever “3-peat” if he wins, which would give him the trophy in 2019, 2020 and this year. When invites to participate this year were emailed a couple weeks ago, he replied that he was in “since someone has to pick the Bills to win it all.”  Let’s see how true he stays to that claim!
• Ben the Butler is going for a “1-peat” and is back from IR and ready to win his first trophy. And, he doesn’t have to pick his beloved New York Football Giants to win any playoff game.  Welcome back, Ben the Butler!
• Will Greg the Great’s record of 110 points in a Wild Card game (established in 1996, making it one of the oldest records) be eclipsed?  His beloved Seahawks, Bills and Bears are all in the playoffs.
• 2021 Winner needs only 638 points during the playoffs to be the 1st participant to hit the 20,000 point mark for a career.  Projections (based on Monte Carlo simulations) indicate he will eclipse that number no later than the end of the Conference Championship games.
• Buffalo Bill is 1,267 points away from the 20,000 point career milestone and will need a significantly better season to hit that mark than what has done in recent performances. His season best is 936 points.
• Likewise, Comeback Kid is “only” 1,537 points from the 20,000 point mark, and he will have done it in 2 less seasons than 2021 Winner or Buffalo Bill. His season high is 1,049 points, which he achieved 5 years ago.  The expanded number of playoff games will play favorably for him, but having the Bills in the playoffs looms large for his picks.
• With the expanded number of Wild Card Weekend games, we should expect those records to be re-established. Comeback Kid amassed his record 243 points in a season back in 2010, and a 300-point effort by one of the participants is not out of the question.
• With 2 extra games, is Pete the Terp’s single season mark of 1,322 points in jeopardy? Who will eclipse the 1,500 point mark?
• With his beloved Browns in the playoffs for the 1st time in 18 years, will JTB pick them to go all the way and hopefully nail down his 2nd trophy?
• Are the stars aligned for Buffalo Bill?  His last trophy was captured in 2003 – the last time the Browns were in the playoffs!  Does he finally register his 4th win this year to put an end to his 17-year drought?  Now that he is retired, he has been able to dedicate 100% of his time to that goal.

The 6-game, 22- hour weekend marathon will begin on Saturday!  Our local Doordash franchise has been ramping up for football food deliveries starting at 1:00pm on Saturday and continuing until almost midnight (unless the 8:15pm games go into OT).

#7 Indianapolis Colts (11-5) @ #2 Buffalo Bills (13-3) – Bills favored by 6.5 points
As we kickoff the Saturday action, a lot of emotional history will accompany this game, as Colts Head Coach Frank Reich comes back to Buffalo for a playoff game (with visions of the January 3, 1992 miracle comeback he orchestrated dancing in his head).  The folks in Buffalo actually like Frank Reich, but probably a little less this week.

The last time the Colts made a playoff appearance (2019) they were ousted in the first Wild Card Game of the weekend by the Houston Texans on the road.  The Bills are planning on a repeat of that event.

Is there a D in the NFL that can stop the Bills offense?  The Josh Allen-led “A-Gun” offense (is it really time to move past the famous K-Gun offense of the 1990’s early Bills teams?) has been cranking at full throttle, culminating in a 56-point effort in Week 17 against the “stout” Dolphin defense – and the key starters only played the 1st half!  They are hotter than a bucket of Anchor Bar Buffalo Wings with a double side of Extreme Heat sauce.  Pass the Ranch dressing!

The Colts were very impressive over the last 4 weeks and sport a solid D, much improved running game (with rookie Jonathan Taylor rushing for a team record 253 yards last Sunday) and a veteran (nice word for “old”) QB with some playoff experience.  And a familiar head coach…

You gotta Bill-lieve that Buffalo begins its Super Bowl quest in handsome fashion with almost 7,000 hungry fans in attendance.  1992 was the Rise of the 1st Reich and 2021 is the Fall of the 2nd Reich…

Buffalo 37, Indianapolis 20 (Did Josh Allen really toss 5 TD passes?)

#6 LA Rams (10-6) @ #3 Seattle Seahawks (12-4) – Seahawks favored by 5
Let’s play Week 17 all over, with the same teams in the same venue.  The Hawks won that tussle, 26-23, as the Rams played with their 2nd string QB.  The Seahawks D has been coming to life over the past 6 weeks and the Rams Goff-ense had been led by the highly inconsistent Jared.

The Rams, however, boast maybe the best D of the teams in the playoffs and are led by DT Aaron Donald (arguably the best defensive player in the NFL over the last 5 years).  One the other side of the ball, the Seahawks are led (as usual) by QB Russell Wilson and his new, favorite target – Megatron II (who normally goes by the name DK Metcalf).

This game should hinge on two things:  1) will Jared Goff be able to play (he was out Week 17 with an injury) and 2) which Jared Goff will show up?

Look for the home team to get into playoff mode real fast this year and send the Rams back to LA.

Seattle 29, LA Rams 17 (Too bad Jared Goff reinjured that thumb in the 1st quarter)

#5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5) @ #4 Washington Football Team (7-9) – Tampa Bay favored by 7.5
Guess who’s back in the playoffs??  Yep, the GOAT #12 and he’s sporting a different jersey this year.  Hard to believe you would call a Brady-led team a “sleeper” but that is where the pundits have the Bucs positioned.

On the other side, we have comeback player of the year, QB Alex Smith, who has returned from a gruesome leg injury 2 years ago to lead the WFT to the playoffs for the 1st time since 2016.  That year they were the #4 seed and lost at home in the Wild Card Weekend game to the favored Packers.  Move the clock ahead 5 years and we have a recipe for a repeat.  The WFT plays really good D, but not a lot else.

The Super Bowl has never been played on a team’s home field.  Just saying…

Tampa Bay 23, WFT 13 (Even with Tom Brady being sacked 5 times)

#5 Baltimore Ravens (11-5) @ #4 Tennessee Titans (11-5) – Baltimore favored by 4.5
Can you say “run the football?”  These 2 teams do it exceptionally well, with the Titans Derrick Henry going over the 2,000 yard mark this season and the Ravens leading the league with over 3,000 rushing yards.  These 2 teams ranked #1 and #2 this season with a combined 5,761 yards (that’s 360 yards per game).

Both QB’s fit in with their respective team’s style and neither has a plethora of receiving weapons, but can surprise you with some big passing plays.

Last year these 2 tangled in the Divisional Round and the Titans upset the #1 seeded Ravens in Baltimore.  This year is the Raven Revenge Tour and it starts in Nashville with our 1st Sunday game of the day.

Baltimore 29, Tennessee 26 (With a 45-yard dinger off the upright to win in OT, just as the Titans did last week)

#7 Chicago Bears (8-8) @ #2 New Orleans Saints (12-4) – New Orleans favored by 9
Mitch Trubisky or Drew Brees?  Which one do you want under center in a playoff game?  da Bears snuck into the playoffs with some Week 17 help from other teams, while the Saints have been one of the NFC’s best teams all year, despite not having all-world WR Michael Thomas and the aforementioned Brees out for extended periods.  And RB Alvin Kamara (yep, he had 6 rushing TD’s a couple weeks ago) may not play, either.

All indications point towards a Saints blowout win, but this is why they play the game.  The Saints are eager to finally forget about their playoff fortunes the past 2 years and get 1 more ring for their #9.  Ring up an upset special.

da Bears 27, da Saints 24 (another OT thriller, as Bears K Cairo Santos atones for last year’s missed FG)

#6 Cleveland Browns (11-5) @ #3 Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) – Steelers favored by 4
Another Week 17 replay, but the cast of characters will be different (primarily for the Steelers).  Cleveland is back in the playoffs after a rather long absence (2003) and has a great RB tandem (Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt) who need to be leaned upon if the inconsistent passing game (led by Mr. Progressive Commercial) is to be effective.  The Browns also have an episode of Covid-19 to deal with and Head Coach Stefanski will not be able to run the show.

The Steelers started the season 11-0, then faltered mightily before showing signs of recovery in weeks 16 and 17.  It all starts with their D and it was impressive all year long.  Memories of their last playoff game (a home loss to Jacksonville in 2018) have lingered for 3 years.

Hard to believe that the Browns could pull this one out with the Steelers playing their A team.  Welcome to the playoffs.  Baker Mayfield solidifies his franchise QB label (well, at least until the 2021 NFL Draft in April – which by the way will be hosted in Cleveland).

Cleveland 20, Pittsburgh 19 (Diontae Johnson drops a 60-yard TD pass on the game’s final play)

SOME FINAL HSBT QUESTIONS

• Ben the Butler is the only participant who does not have the team he roots for in this year’s playoffs, so he has a decided advantage over the rest of the field. Will this provide him with the needed impetus to capture his 1st trophy?
• Is the Bills hype for real? For sure – and the western New Yorkers (including HSBT Participant, Comeback Kid) have totally forgotten they have a hockey team!
• Can da Bears pull an upset? The Saints have a lot of pressure on them to march on, but may be missing their star RB and WR.
• Teams with a losing regular season record have been in the playoffs 2 times and both have won (home games) their Wild Card Weekend game. Will the Washington Football Team make it 3 in a row?
• The home team sweep in the Wild Card Weekend games has happened only 2 times in the last 10 years – how many upsets will there be and who is going to be upset?
• Henrico FiveOh seems primed to capture his 3rd consecutive (and 9th overall) trophy. Can anyone unseat him or is this a dynasty in the making?
• Which Seahawks team is going to show up for the tough re-matchup vs. the LA Rams? Rest assured that Greg the Great (Seattle-area resident) will be picking them BIG!
• Will Buffalo Bill continue with his excellent performance in the Wild Card games (league leader with 73 career correct picks) or will he add to his goose-egg record?
• Is Pete the Terp drinking the Ravens Revenge Tour kool-aid? A very tough matchup awaits this weekend in Nashville for his beloved team.  A victory against the Titans would put Baltimore into the Divisional Round game possibly against the Bills.  A real dilemma awaits…
• Will JTB have the Browns winning big in Pittsburgh this weekend? By how much?  What level of faith does he have in QB Baker Mayfield?  Cleveland squares off on Sunday Night vs. JTB’s favorite QB, Big Ben – not!

Reminder – your picks for all 6 Wild Card Weekend games are to be submitted no later than 1:00pm Eastern time this Saturday.  Please use the “Submit Picks” tab on our website to submit them.

Enjoy the weekend games!  I’ll be providing real-time scoring updates (with some projected delays during the Seahawks – Rams game) and will also be active on Slack, where we already have 4 participants communicating.

Until next week when I publish the results of Super Wild Card Weekend, I remain

~~ The Commish

Participants,

Welcome to the upcoming 33^rd season of the Hewes Super Bowl Trophy (HSBT) competition!  From its humble beginnings in 1989, with league founder Donn Hewes crafting up the competition rules on his trusty Apple II, to today’s high tech environment (featuring a dedicated website rich with historical and Participant information and online submission of weekly picks as well as in-game, real time Participant communication via the Slack mobile app and live scoring updates), the HSBT has become the premier NFL Playoffs competition for an elite group of football enthusiasts now spread over 5 states across the country.

And, for the 1^st time in 3 years all 8 Participants are reporting as healthy and will be competing!  Ben the Butler has finally shrugged off a lingering set of injuries that forced him to miss the last 2 playoff seasons.  He has been diligently rehabbing at his primary residence in Brooklyn and at a newly acquired additional location in the remote reaches of upstate New York.  Glad to see him back and in action!

Admittedly, the 2020 season has been a very unique year and its impacts on the NFL have been noticed.

• Nearly 150 players were on the COVID-19/Reserve list this season (meaning a minimum of 5 days quarantine if contact tracing indicates a player was near another player or other team personnel that tested positive, or 10 days quarantine if personally tested positive)
• More than a dozen regular season games were rescheduled to accommodate teams with several players on that list
• There is now a team without a nickname
• And to accommodate teams with high levels of COVID-19 related impacts, for the 1^st time in NFL history a game was played on every night of the week

As is customary in my role as The Commish I want to take this opportunity to review a few key guidelines of the competition in order to hopefully avoid any conflicts or misunderstandings once the playoffs commence on January 9.  Also, I’m encouraging you to visit our website to review all the updated content and to re-familiarize yourself with site navigation.

PLAYOFF FORMAT
Beginning this year the format for the NFL playoffs will be expanded to accommodate greater viewership and interest (and money…), with 7 teams (previously 6) from each conference now participating in the playoffs.  This is the first playoff expansion in 30 years, when the NFL went from 4 Wild Card teams to 6 Wild Card teams in 1991.  There will now be 6 Wild Card Weekend games, instead of the customary 4.  Three will be played on Saturday and 3 on Sunday, which makes for about 11 hours of playoff football enjoyment each of those 2 days!  Be sure your refrigerator is stocked accordingly.  Kickoff each day will begin around 1:00pm EST.

Only the 2 teams seeded #1 in each conference will receive a Bye during Wild Card Weekend.  The remaining 6 teams will play (#2 seed vs. #7 seed, #3 seed vs. #6 seed and #4 seed vs. #5 seed), with the 3 winners advancing to the Divisional Round.  Playoff format will remain the same as in prior years once we get to the Divisional Round games – 2 on Saturday and 2 on Sunday (both with late afternoon and evening kickoff times).

SUBMITTING PICKS
Because of the extended playoff format, be sure your picks for all 6 Wild Card Weekend games are submitted via our website by 1:00pm on Saturday, January 9.  Our Countdown Timer on the website will remind you of this important deadline each and every week.  You are encouraged to visit our website, www.hewessbt.com,  to be sure you can view all the content and are able to submit picks.  Feel free to send test picks prior to January 9 – I will reply back to you that everything is in working order.  If you do not hear back from me on your test submission of picks, let me know of the problem via personal email and I will get it corrected.

PARTICIPANT RULES REFRESH
While posted on our website, it goes without saying that there are a few key things to remember in advance of the playoffs:

• All weekend game picks are due in advance of the kickoff of the 1^st weekend game and must be submitted using the website “Submit Picks” tab. This provides for a timestamp of each entry in case we have a future dispute
• No absentee or mail-in picks permitted…

“SLACK”ING IS ACCEPTABLE!
Greg the Great introduced a few of the Participants to Slack last year so interactive chat with each other was available while the playoff games were in progress.  Reviews of this capability and communication platform were 5« and Slack is open to all of us!!  Let me know if you are interested and I will get you up and running.  Please download the Slack app on your device in advance.  Don’t be a non-Slacker…

WHO WILL BE IN???
We have only 2 weeks left in the regular season and the playoff picture is as clear as the waters of a raging mudslide.  Of the 14 teams that will qualify for the post-season, only 6 are in for sure and we know that 11 are out for sure (including the New England Patriots, which certainly brings a big smile to the Buffalo Bills faithful).

Right now, front runner teams for the playoffs include all the teams that the HSBT Participants root for – Buffalo, Seattle, Cleveland and Baltimore.  Even the New York Football Giants are still in the hunt.

I hope you are as excited as I am that the NFL Playoffs are about to begin, which means the 33^rd season of HSBT is ready to go!  Who will unseat HenricoFiveOh and earn the trophy next February?  Or will he win for the 3^rd consecutive time?  So many questions and so few answers at this time…

Until the Wild Card Weekend preview and analysis is sent out, I am

~~ The Commish

Participants,

As mentioned a couple days ago, congrats to HenricoFiveOh for winning the 32nd HSBT!  It required a huge comeback by the Kansas City Chiefs in the waning moments, and they delivered (once again)!  As for the Super Bowl game, below is my recap, followed by the HSBT final standings:

Super Bowl LIV Recap
164-1.  Prior to the Sunday night tilt, that was the record during the 2019 NFL  regular season for teams that were ahead by 10 points or more with less than 7 minutes remaining in the 4th quarter.  That number is now 164-2, with the utter collapse of the 49ers in the waning moments of SB LIV.  SF QB Jimmy G was all but admiring his MVP trophy, until the 49ers decided to fall apart late in the game, allowing the Chiefs to score 21 unanswered points and come away with a 31-20 victory.

For the 3rd consecutive time in this year’s playoffs, the Chiefs found a way to Comeback (Kid?) from 10 or more points and win!  A league record, for sure, which caused massive heart palpitations for the KC faithful all night long.  It wasn’t a matter of IF they were going to comeback, it was a question of HOW it would happen.  The impetus seemed to be the blatant offensive pass interference call on SF TE George Kittle on a catch that would have moved the 49ers inside the 10.  The refs got this one right (not an overly frequent occurrence during the playoffs…).  From that point forward the Chiefs speed on offense took over and the rest is history, as the Chiefs won their 2nd championship in 50 years.

HSBT Update
With the 49ers comfortably in the lead after the 3rd quarter and a victory assured, Comeback Kid was feeling pretty good with a 120+ point lead over Buffalo Bill.  Those 2 participants were the only one’s to pick SF to win, and were feeling pretty smug.  Then the Chiefs got a TD to make it 20-17.  No change in the HSBT race, so Comeback Kid started preparing his victory speech.  Surely, the 49ers vaunted D would not allow any more scoring, right?  How easy is it to hold the ball on offense and just run, run, run for repeated 1st downs and burn the game clock down to 00:00?  Then Jimmy G decided to put it in the air and it was a nice catch by the Chiefs LB.  From there, a few more plays and we’re at 24-20 in favor of the Chiefs!  Just like that, Pete the Terp surges into the lead by 16 points over Comeback Kid!  How nice to speed up the healing of the wounds suffered by the Ravens in their loss earlier in the playoffs.  Certainly, the 49ers can make a long drive in the waning moments and at least get a FG to tie it (or better yet, a TD to win the Lombardi Trophy!).  Oops, the SF offense became offensive and the Chiefs had the ball again.  A quick strike 38-yard TD scamper by RB Damien Williams and the trophy has changed hands once again, ending up in the Richmond, VA area for a 2nd consecutive year!

With that improbable series of events, HenricoFiveOh makes the largest Comeback (not Kid…) in HSBT history (233 points) and will keep the prized trophy on his mantle for another year.  Here are your Final HSBT standings:

• HenricoFiveOh – 754 points (the lowest winning number of points since 2008)
• 2020 Winner – 707 points and oh, so close (a 49er FG or TD would have won it for him)
• Comeback Kid – 659 points and probably re-thinking that prediction of a 49er win.  The pressure of being in the lead proved to be too much…  He earns the Bronze Chicken Wing for his 3rd place finish
• Buffalo Bill – 593 points (“why did I pick the 49ers?” – the pressure of being in 2nd place before the Super Bowl).  Had he picked KC to win by the same score he predicted, he would be holding the trophy for the 1st time since 2003…
• Greg the Great – 552 points, and was hoping for a higher scoring game
• Pete the Terp – 551 points, and would have been holding his 3rd trophy had the Chiefs not scored that last TD…
• JTB – 419 points and needed an offensive explosion bigger than the Halftime show to earn his 2nd trophy

All the important stats will be updated and posted on our website (which I’m sure you view at least weekly during the off-season) over the next few weeks.  Again, congrats to HenricoFiveOh on his record 8th HSBT victory!

Until next year’s playoffs, I remain

THE Commish