Participants,

With a 3rd and final Kansas City touchdown late in the 4th quarter to win Super Bowl LIV, HenricoFiveOh captured the HSBT for a record 8th time.  More details will come out later, and we just wanted to congratulate him on his repeat victory last night!

THE Commish

Participants,

Finally, the Super Bowl is upon us and everyone has been anxiously waiting for The Commish’s newsletter that will certainly “seal the deal’ for you in your quest for the HSBT.  It’s a nailbiter for the hallowed and esteemed trophy, with everyone still in the running.  Our leader, Comeback Kid, has immense pressure in that position and will need to be very thoughtful before making his game pick in what is shaping up to be the closest Super Bowl in several years.  The current spread is a skimpy 1.5 points, so let’s hope we have a great game!

GAME ANALYSIS
This marks the 11th time the BIG game will be played in South Florida, and for the 54th consecutive year it will not represent a home field advantage for either team.  The last time the game was in Miami (2010), the Saints clobbered the Colts, 31-17, on their way to their very first Lombardi Trophy in the Orange Bowl / Joe Robbie Stadium / Pro Player Stadium / Dolphin Stadium / Hard Rock Stadium (not that they change the name very often…).

The Kansas City Chiefs
For the 1st time in 50 years, they are appearing in the BIG game.  The Commish clearly remembers watching SB4 (it was actually the 4th and final time this game was called the “AFL-NFL World Championship Game”).  Interestingly, that 1969 Chiefs team closely resembled the current SF 49ers squad, featuring a great D line (Tackles Buck Buchanan and Curley Culp) and an offense that was run-heavy with an efficient QB (MVP Len Dawson).  Back to the today’s Chiefs, this offense could almost be the US Men’s 4×100 Track team at the next Olympics.  We saw some of that in their explosive wins in the playoffs, where they scored 86 points in 2 Comeback (Kid?) victories.  As good as the 49er defense might be, they have yet to encounter a QB and offense like this.  On defense, the Chiefs play well enough to let the offense outscore the other team.  Will it matter if they give up 35 points?  Likely not, as the KC offense may put up a SB record number of points later today (the record is 55, interestingly held by the 49ers).

The SF 49ers
Overwhelming D and an efficient offense have been the signatures of the 2019 team (unlike the 4-12 team from a year ago).  More women than ever will be watching this game, just to get a view of SF QB Jimmy Garoppolo with his helmet off…  Is this bringing back memories of SB3 (ahem, AFL-NFL World Championship Game), with Broadway Joe Namath at the helm for the underdog NY Jets?  The D surrendered only 15 points a game in the playoffs against 2 pretty good offenses.  Does Jimmy G have the weapons to Comeback (Kid?) if they fall behind by more than 10 points?  Having a healthy RB Tevin Coleman will be important and the impressive rookie WR Deebo Samuel (why does it seem he should be called Samuel Deebo?) continuing his big time play capability weighs huge in answering that question.

PREDICTION
It has taken longer than usual to digest all the information on this very close game, hence the lateness of this newsletter to everyone.  The Commish wants to be sure you have the most complete, accurate and unbiased information before submitting your game score (although a very confident Pete the Terp has already sent his in, and it should be a doozy from our current bottom feeder…  Can he eclipse the record of 684 SB points that trophy holder HenricoFiveOh set last year on his way to a record 7th HSBT win?).

Defenses win games and this SB should be no different (well, sorta…).  Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes will be on the run for much of the day, as he scrambles out of the reach of the vaunted 49er D.  That’s good for SF, but Mahomes is super-efficient when on the move (both passing and running).  You can play a zone D or man-up, but how do you cover WR Tyreek Hill when he is the 2nd fastest guy in the league (2nd behind teammate and fellow WR Mecole Hardman)?  49ers Head Kyle Shanahan has the plan…

Offenses win games and this SB should be no different…  Really, if you score 63 points you win the vast majority of NFL games, right?  The 49ers can put up a lot of points, as evidenced a few times this year.  But they seem to lack the explosiveness needed to turn the momentum in their favor when needed.

Most pundits see this game as being very close (as do the bettors), but don’t be surprised if KC Head Coach Andy Reid is doused with the Gatorade cooler midway thru the 4th quarter.

Chiefs 38, 49ers 27

HSBT Update
Nerves are on end and fingernails don’t need to be clipped as the 7 participants are anxiously closing in on their game predictions, with the single goal of winning THE trophy.  Questions remain before the final picks are submitted:

  • Comeback Kid – our current leader, and all the pressure is squarely on his shoulders.  Pick a close score and the trophy will be yours for the 1st time in 6 years.  Miss by a point or 2 and the Comeback will not be complete…
  • Buffalo Bill – so very anxious to get out of his 17-year trophy slump and so close (a mere 42 points behind the leader).  The Super Bowl game has not been his friend, so he will need to break out of that slump if he wants the trophy to remain in the Richmond, VA area for another year.
  • 2020 Winner – so aptly named and just a small variance away from capturing yet another HSBT Trophy.
  • Greg the Great – looming large in the shadows and getting close-up advice and intelligence while in Florida at this time…
  • HenricoFiveOh – clutching the trophy and not wanting to “Let it Go” (from the Disney movie, Frozen).  Can he repeat last year’s SB game with 684 points?  If yes, it will be his 2nd repeat win.
  • JTB – had a taste of the trophy 2 years ago and is hungry to take it back.  Can he overcome a 244-point deficit?
  • Pete the Terp – look out for this pick.  If he’s right (or close) the trophy will be his.

As a reminder, your picks are due no later than 6:30 pm EST today.  THE Commish will be hosting a Super Bowl party, so most likely will not be able to keep the LIVe scoring updated throughout the game.  I’m asking Greg the Great if he could do those honors.  If he is unable, then THE Commish will update the scoring at the end of each quarter.

Best of luck to everyone and it should be a dandy game.  Get all those little chores done so you can sit back with a few cold ones and a broad assortment of SB delicacies (wings, BBQ, sub sandwiches, an array of chips and dip, nachos, meatballs, cheese and crackers, etc.) to enjoy the game.

Until the 2020 Winner is announced, I remain

THE Commish

Participants,

Copying some familiar scripts from last weekend’s Divisional Round games, we had 2 fairly close games that resulted in 2 old-time SB participants making the final road trip of the season to Miami for Super Bowl LIV in a little less than 2 weeks.  And – we now have a new leader in the quest for the HSBT Championship, who has to hold on for 1 more game before claiming his 6th trophy!  Let’s review yesterday’s games:

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Kansas City Chiefs 35, Tennessee Titans 24

It started out as a very nervous repeat from last week for the Chiefs and their faithful followers, as they found themselves once again trailing by double digits early in the 2nd quarter.  Could this be the start of an upset?  But, as we saw last weekend, the Chiefs offense proved once again to be unstoppable when they wanted to be.  QB Mahomes launched missiles all over the field in an aerial attack that would have made the Department of Defense smile.  And, speaking of defense, holding Titans RB Derrick Henry to under 100 rushing yards (69) clearly changed Tennessee’s offensive approach.  Forced to pass, Titans QB Ryan Tannehill was not able to keep up with the relentless KC defense.  How fast are those elusive Kansas City WR’s?  They oughta have speed limiters in their shoes…  The Chiefs are off to the SB for the 1st time in 50 years, where they hope to repeat on their success, when they defeated the Vikes for their only SB Trophy.  Comeback complete for the 2nd weekend in a row.

In the HSBT, 2020 Winner started to make his customary move and earned 146 points, with a game variance of 2.  The pressure is starting to mount…  Pete the Terp submitted his picks on time, too.

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
San Francisco 49ers 37, Green Bay Sent Packing 20
Up 27-0 at the half, we thought this was over, but never count out Green Bay QB Rodgers.  A mini comeback started to mount, but was neutralized by the smothering 49er D.  SF QB Jimmy Garoppolo had to toss only 8 passes, as RB Mostert made the mostest of his day with a record-setting performance of 4 TD’s and 220 yards.  A thorough trouncing in the Bay Area in the nightcap game.  The Cheeseheads are beginning to smell like limberger, as the comeback attempt was thwarted…  Can the 49ers make it Lombardi Trophy #6 and tie the Patriots (they’re not playing in the Super Bowl?) and Steelers for the most?  We’ll find out in a couple of weeks.

In HSBT action, here comes Comeback Kid!  With a game variance of 2, he tallied a personal record 290 points (and 403 for the weekend) and now has the insurmountable lead of 42 points (over Buffalo Bill), as we head into the final game of the year.  His average variance of 3.0 for the 2 Conference Championships is 2nd best of all-time (Pete the Terp had a variance of 2.5, with a zero variance game, in 2012).

With only the Super Bowl game remaining, here is where the HSBT stands:

  • Comeback Kid (563 points) – a very impressive weekend and sitting in an unfamiliar place (the last time he held the lead with 1 game to go was 2005), as he looks to capture his first trophy in 6 years
  • Buffalo Bill (521) – a decent weekend, but trending in the wrong direction if he wants to capture his 4th trophy
  • 2020 Winner (427) – keeping pace with the leaders, and firing on all cylinders as he seeks his 7th trophy
  • Greg the Great (356) – a pretty good weekend, too, but needs to nail it in the SB if he wants to hold the trophy for the 7th time
  • HenricoFiveOh (330) – 2nd lowest point total for the weekend puts him in a familiar place of making a very interesting SB game pick if he wants to hold the trophy for another year
  • JTB (219) – really needed to make a statement over the weekend, but all we heard was “that goose-egg in the Pack loss to SF really hurt”  Look out for this SB pick!
  • Pete the Terp (291) – still suffering from the sting of the Ravens loss and his penalty from the prior weekend, he’ll need a pick similar to “SF 55, KC 54” to claim his 3rd trophy.  Not out of the question, but probably out of the question…

My team will be making the journey to Miami later this week in preparation for our final analysis and game predictions, which will be shared later next week.  Mathematically, everyone is still in the hunt for the trophy, so begin making your plans!

Until then, enjoy the winter, and I am

THE Commish

Participants,

We’ve been waiting since the kickoff of the 1st game of the season (back in early September) for this weekend, when it will be decided which teams go to battle to claim NFL supremacy with a Super Bowl victory.  More importantly, the 2 games tomorrow will play a large part in determining who will be the winner of the 32nd season of the HSBT!

Many of you have been “running the numbers” all week, and at least of 1 of you has been soaking in the sun and enjoying the Caribbean waters.  Clearly, a lack of focus and preparation…  Regardless, both games are shaping up to be full of intrigue and suspense.  My team here at the league offices has completed our evaluations and analysis and offer the following as you prepare to make your game picks, which are due by 3:00pm EST on Sunday.  Not that anyone needs a reminder…

#6 Tennessee Titans @ #2 Kansas City Chiefs
When Titans RB Derrick Henry (all 6-foot-3 and 245 pounds) rushes for 100 yards or more, the Titans are undefeated.  Ever since he joined the league in 2017…  These 2 teams battled it out in Week 10 in Nashville, with the Titans claiming a 35-32 victory and Derrick Henry going for 188 yards.  Advantage Titans?

Can the Titans keep up with the Chiefs offense?  They may need to score more than 50 to do so, and were fully capable of that during the last half of the regular season.  Last week, once the the Chiefs woke up in the 2nd quarter, they put up 42 points in a little more than 30 minutes of football.  They can go 50 yards on any play and their speed is world class.  They also have a TE that can wreak havoc when a linebacker or safety tries to cover him.

Big edge to the Chiefs at (Ma)home(s) in Arrowhead.

Kansas City 41, Tennessee 23

#2 Green Bay @ #1 San Francisco
A real dandy in the nightcap.  The much ballyhooed Niners D will have their hands full with the artful dodger, Aaron Rodgers.  If he plays like he did last week, look for Cheeseheads in Miami in 2 weeks.  If the Packers play like they did against the 49’ers in Week 12, Jimmy G and the west coast gang will be headed to Florida for more than a little sun.

The Packers D has been under-rated all season but are coming into peak form at the right time.  The 49’ers have weapons on offense, but they are not the marquis names of SF teams from the past (e.g., Montana, Young, Lott, Rice, etc.).

The 1 player who will make the difference is SF TE George Kittle, who should have a monster game and will score the tie-breaking TD with under 2 minutes to go.  Don’t worry about cutting your finger nails on Sunday night – this game will have you biting on them pretty much the whole game.

San Francisco 27, Green Bay 24

As for the HSBT, Buffalo Bill is enjoying his almost unsurmountable lead (over 100 points), while everyone else has plans to move up in the standings.  We should have some very interesting picks (and that’s assuming we get picks from everyone!!).

Look for a full recap of the AFC and NFC Championship games and an update on the HSBT early next week.

Until then, I am

THE Commish

Scoring Adjustment

In: Updates

16 Jan 2020

Participants,

During a recent routine audit, it was discovered that a scoring error was made in the calculation of the Divisional games last weekend.  Specifically, the error was related to the late score submission and resultant Participant point calculations for the 2 Saturday games, in which Pete the Terp was penalized 25 points for each.  In those 2 games, while we properly calculated the 25 point penalty, we were remiss in the removing the Variance calculation for Pete the Terp, which impacted the scoring for all other Participants in those 2 games.

As such, I will be updating the Standings tab on our Home page to reflect the following scoring changes:

Total Points for the Minnesota @ SF Game

  • Buffalo Bill – was 157 points, now 97
  • Comeback Kid – was 67 points, now 25
  • 2020 Winner – was 79 points, now 33
  • HenricoFiveOh – was 67 points, now 25
  • Greg the Great – was 109 points, now 57
  • JTB – was 79 points, now 33

Total Points for the Tennessee @ Baltimore Game

  • Buffalo Bill – was 92 points, now 50
  • Comeback Kid – was 46 points, now 14
  • 2020 Winner – was 70 points, now 32
  • HenricoFiveOh – was 46 points, now 14
  • Greg the Great – was 18 points, now 0
  • JTB – was 80 points, now 40

After these adjustments, our total points with 3 games remaining are as follows:

  • Buffalo Bill – 343 points
  • JTB – 242
  • 2020 Winner – 204
  • HenricoFiveOh – 197
  • Comeback Kid – 160
  • Greg the Great – 142
  • Pete the Terp – 125

Please let me know if you have any questions.  Look forward to our expert analysis and predictions for the upcoming Conference Championship games!

Until then, I am

THE Commish

About HSBT

From its inception in 1989, the premier NFL Playoff football competition incorporates a dual-scoring system that rewards participants to not only pick the winning team, but also the game score with increasing significance every week

Photostream

    Night & Day Over Arrowhead StadiumGreen Bay Packers HandIMG_0894IMG_0893IMG_0892IMG_0896
  • Greg the Great: Go Hawks and Bears! And good luck to all in HSBT 31!! [...]
  • gregory: The updated scores are still on the standings tab, they look current to me. [...]
  • Brian: I'm not getting any updates, last week either. Is it not found on the standings sheet anymore? [...]
  • The Commish: The Commish will be watching and keeping the scores updated real-time all weekend. I spend the whol [...]
  • gregory: Is the Commish going to be able to keep the scores updated with that Sunday night game going in 2OT! [...]

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