HSBT

Participants,

This past weekend could have been wilder than Wild Card Weekend!!  Between upsets, blowouts, and late score submissions, we had it all wrapped into a tidy little 2-day package.  Let’s get right into the details:

San Francisco 27, Minnesota 10
As predicted (a rarity this weekend), the 49ers cruised into the NFC Championship game with a thorough drubbing of the hopeful Vikings.  The 49er D came to life and impressed with their pass rush, continually putting pressure on Minnesota QB Cousins.  Not too much excitement in this predictable game, other than the fact that 1 participant failed to submit his picks on time (and forfeiting 25 precious points in the process).

Buffalo Bill dominated in this game, with a variance of 7 and 157 points, significantly ahead of the nearest competitor (who earned 109).  Pete the Terp surprisingly forgot to submit his pick on time and was penalized 25 points (and half the distance to the goal).

Tennessee 28, Baltimore or Less (go for Less) 12
What happened?  The Super Bowl favorite Ravens were totally outplayed on both sides of the ball and super-QB Lamar Jackson turned in maybe his least impressive game of the year.  Not a good time to do that…  Titan RB Derrick Henry, as predicted by THE Commish earlier, turned in almost another 200 yard game, falling 3 short of that mark.  And again, Tennessee QB Ryan Tannehill passed for less than 100 yards in a victory as underdog.

Buffalo Bill once again earned the top spot in the HSBT with 92 points, while JTB was close on his heels.  Pete the Terp again suffered the woes of a late pick for a Saturday game, adding to the disappointment of the Ravens game.  The #6 seed  Titans are in the AFC Championship game.  The last time that happened was in 2011, when the 13-5 Jets advanced similarly.

Kansas City Chiefs 51, Houston (what happened?) Texans 31
In the most exciting game of the weekend by more than a long shot, this game was indescribable and unbelievable.  Too many firsts to mention, but when you’re at home and down by 24 early in the 2nd quarter, things start to look gloomy.  I did mention to Comeback Kid and Greg the Great (via Slack, which you should all join!) that this game felt like the Houston vs. Buffalo playoff game of 1993, when the Bills were down by 31 at half and came back to win.  6 possessions, 6 TD’s for the super-explosive Chiefs in less than 2 quarters quickly erased that 24-point deficit and propelled them to another home game next weekend.

Once again, Buffalo Bill got the top spot with 69 points, while 4 participants each earned 45 points.

Green Bay Discount Double Check Packers 28, Se(ya)attle Seahawks 23
Any game after the Kansas City thriller would be a letdown, but Seattle QB Russell Wilson would not let down in pursuit of an elusive victory at Lambeau.  Packer QB Aaron Rodgers made several key plays to lead the Pack on to SF next Sunday.  It was a close and entertaining game, enjoyed more so by the fireplace watching the players run around in 21 degree weather.

Buffalo Bill had the 2nd most points in this one, as JTB came to life with an 85-point showing to capture game honors.

HSBT Standings Update
8 games down and 3 left to go.  Historically, 55% of the available points are still up for grabs.  Nobody is going to win the 100 point Super Bowl Bonus.  Here is how the standings are looking right now:

• Buffalo Bill (445 points) – had his best Divisional Game total (with 379) and is poised to win it all for the 1st time since 2003?
• JTB (328) – looks like he is ramping up towards his 2nd trophy in 3 years?
• 2020 Winner (288) – a solid performance over the weekend
• HenricoFiveOh (271) – a model of consistency over the weekend.  Can he win the trophy for a 2nd consecutive year?
• Comeback Kid (234) – keeping pace, even while he’s out of the country
• Greg the Great (212) – the Seattle game let him down, but he’s ready for the next round
• Pete the Terp (125) – the late pick submission hurt immensely, as did the Ravens loss.  Can he find a way to get back in the mix?

Enjoy your week and I’ll be sending out the customary analysis and predictions as we near the Sunday afternoon kickoff.

Until then, I am
THE Commish

I know you have been anxiously awaiting for this all week.  Hopefully Comeback Kid has a chance to peruse this before leaving western New York for the warmth of a well-deserved winter trip.  One omission from last week’s Wild Card Recap related to the Buffalo vs. Houston game.  It was almost a mini trip down memory lane; more specifically to Super Bowl XXV.  In that particular game, a Buffalo kicker was wide right from 47 yards to win the game.  Last weekend, the Bills K Steven Hauschka was in an identical situation — a 47-yd FG attempt (this time to send the game into OT).  Fortunately, it was true and the rest is history.

We’ve been crunching numbers and debating the pro’s and con’s of each of this weekend’s games.  It’s been an exhaustive effort, to say the least.  Here is what we have come up with for your consideration before submitting your 4 game picks (plus your Super Bowl Bonus pick) in advance of the 4:30 kickoff on Saturday:

#6 Minnesota Vikings @ #1 San Francisco 49ers
This is shaping up to be a very close contest.  Will a 47-yd FG make the difference?  The Vikes put a whooping on the Aints in New Orleans and are poised to continue, especially with the return this weekend of a few key players that missed last weekend’s tussle.  The 49ers had an extra week to rest and heal (i.e., all-world TE George Kittle is now healthy), while the Vikes have a new injury to be concerned about (i.e., WR Adam Thielen, who suffered a severe ankle cut in practice 2 days ago).

49er’s QB Garoppolo is not playoff tested and the Vikes Kirk (kissing) Cousins appears to be peaking at the right time.  The 49ers have the home field (sporting a 6-2 record during the season) and a D that was outstanding during the 1st half of the season, but have struggled down the stretch (like giving up 46 points the Aints late in the season).

Oh, boy — get ready for a real nail-biter that will result in the 3rd OT game of this year’s playoffs.

Minnesota 26, SF 23

#6 Tennessee Titans @ #1 Baltimore Ravens
Thank you, Titans, for eliminating the Patriots last weekend in Foxborough.  Too bad you now get to play catch-up to Lamar & Company, who are riding a 12-game winning streak.  A quick look suggests this will not even be close, but that’s what many thought about Tennessee last weekend.  Can anyone stop the Ravens offense when they really want to crank it up?  Maybe Pete the Terp (Baltimore area resident and avid Ravens fan) can lend some insight.  The Titans face the polar opposite style of Pats QB Brady in this game.

Tennessee will put up another great effort and RB Derrick Henry may explode again for a 200-yard game.  While the Titan D is more than sufficient, the combination of home field and the elusive Lamar Jackson will be the winning ticket for the Ravens.

It will be closer than you think…

Baltimore 33, Tennessee 27

#4 Houston Texans @ #1 Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are starting to run on all cylinders, with QB Mahomes playing like he did last season.  Texans QB Watson showed his skills last weekend.  So this one will be a great QB contest.  Can the Texans put up more than 22 points?  They better put up at least 38 if they plan to advance.

This will be a fun one to watch, but in the end it will be the Kansas City BBQ tasting better than the Texas BBQ.  Put another lathering of that Patrick Sauce on your KC ribs and get ready for next week’s Conference Championship at Arrowhead.

It will not be as close as you think…

Kansas City 37, Houston 24

#5 Seattle Seahawks @ #2 Green Bay Packers
The most intriguing game of the weekend, featuring 2 outstanding QB’s.  Is either team really that good?  It will be tundra-like conditions at Lambeau Field for the 6:40pm EST kickoff Sunday night, with an expected high of 22 during the day.  Seattle QB Russell Wilson needs to be the best QB on the field by a large margin if the injury-riddled Seahawks plan to play next weekend.  The O-line is very suspect and the Green Bay D-line is one of their strengths.

Time for another “discount double-check” and a classic game… in the 2nd OT game of the weekend (can you stay up past 11pm?)

Green Bay 27, Seattle 24

Don’t forget to get your scores (plus Super Bowl Bonus pick) submitted on time!  Expecting a great weekend of football.  I will be at a function Saturday night (starting around 6pm) and unable to provide the live scoring that you have come to appreciate.  If Greg the Great is available, I’d ask that he take over the reigns on this for everyone’s enjoyment.

Until next week, I am
THE Commish

What a crazy weekend, with 2 of the 4 games going into OT and the home team coming away with only with 1 win!  Nothing like the 1st round of the playoffs…  Let’s get right into the results and HSBT standings.

Houston Oilers 22, Buffalo Bills 19 (OT)
Finally, a Houston game worth watching.  The Bills went out to an early lead, with Josh Allen looking extremely sharp, poised and confident.  We found out the answer to the question “will Fuller play?” before kickoff and that added to the Bills frenzy.  Unfortunately for the Bills, Texans QB Deshaun Watson did play and that last minute OT escape from 2 potential sackers to get the ball down to inside the 10 was the difference.

Buffalo has a lot to build on for the future, but the future does not include an away game this weekend.

Buffalo Bill (who remarkably picked the Texans to win – is this blasphemy?) took the early HSBT lead with 53 points, with a game variance of 1 point.  Impressive… for the moment.

Tennessee Titans (former Oilers) 20, New England Patriots 13
Smiles and high 5’s quickly erased the sting of an earlier loss for Bills fans, as Titans RB Derrick Henry ran wild through the so-called “vaunted” Patriots D for close to 200 total yards.  I know everyone hated to see Tom Brady lose another home game this year and have to watch the rest of the playoffs on TV.  Pretty dominating win, in spite of passing for less than 100 yards, for Tennessee.  This one could have also gone to OT, but Brady’s final minute pass was a pick-6.  Pity party for Tom is being planned at his 9,716 sq. ft. mansion in Brookline… (which is for sale for a cool $40 million).

Pete the Terp took honors in this game, with 45 points, while Greg the Great posted the 1st goose-egg of the playoffs.

Minnesota Vikings 26, New Orleans Aints 20 (OT)
Who was wearing #9 for the Aints on Sunday?  It couldn’t have been the all-time NFL passing leader, right?  Was this a surprise.  Originally seen as a Saint blowout win, the Vikes dominated in almost every important category and you could see a few brown paper bags in the stands late in the game.  3 years in a row with a home playoff loss really hurts.  Minnesota QB Kirk is certainly no kissing Cousin for anyone in New Orleans!

Everyone picked the Aints to win somewhat handily, but it was 2020 Winner who led the way with 26 points.  Not to be outdone by Greg the Great, all-time goose-egg leader Buffalo Bill recorded his 1st of the playoffs.

Seattle Seahawks 17, Philadelphia Eagles 9
No, this is not the halftime score…  Were the defenses that good or are the offenses that bad?  Eagles QB Carson Went(z) down again and his 40-year old replacement needed a little squirt of oil like the Tin Man.  As usual, Hawks QB Russell Wilson did what he had to do to win.

Pete the Terp and HenricoFiveOh tied for the honors in this tilt with 35 points each.

HSBT Standings
After the first 4 of 11 games (which have historically accounted for 13% of the total points in the playoffs), we find the following positions out of the gate with combined record of 7-21 (yikes!):

• Pete the Terp – 105 points
• Henrico FiveOh (current trophy holder) – 90 points
• Buffalo Bill – 66 points (and a solid contender for his 1st trophy since 2003)
• JTB – 51 points (despite going 0-4 over the weekend)
• 2020 Winner – 43 points
• Comeback Kid – 39 points (keeping up with JTB by going 0-4)
• Greg the Great – 36 points

We have 4 terrific outdoor games upcoming this weekend in the Divisional round, so look for my expert analysis and predictions as we get closer to kickoff next Saturday afternoon.  Don’t forget to also submit your Super Bowl Bonus pick, as it’s worth 100 extra points.

Have a great week and start putting together your thoughts as the stakes get higher and the collars get tighter!

Until then, I am

THE Commish

Participants,

It’s that time again and here we go for the start of season 32 in the Hewes Super Bowl Trophy competition (“It’s the most wonderful time of the year”, according to Andy Williams and his terrific holiday classic)!  The website has been updated with Cumulative Stats and Participant profiles, and The Commish will have the live scoring up and running beginning this Saturday afternoon!  Before digging into the analytics and scores for this weekend, just a couple reminders:

• Your picks for all 4 Wild Card games must be submitted no later than 4:30pm EST on Saturday.  The Countdown Timer on the right side of our website (www.hewessbt.com) is tracking this for you.
• All picks must be submitted using the Submit Picks tab on the website.  Everyone has done this quite well in the past, so keep up the good work!

Let’s take a look at the 4 games this weekend.

#5 Buffalo Bills (10-6) @ #4 Houston Oilers (10-6)
The mere presence of the Bills in the playoffs will create internal prediction conflicts for several participants who have strong allegiances to the western New York team.  While the offense has shown some promise, it has mostly sputtered like a un-maintained ’67 Chevy with less than 2 miles of gas left in the tank.  When Bills QB Josh Allen runs more than 7 times in a game, the Bills are 9-2.  But the Houston D is relatively weak (even with the return of JJ Watt), so All-en may not need to be All-in on the run.

The Texans are led by QB Deshaun (Elementary, my dear) Watson and their home field advantage.  The big question for the Texans is Will Fuller be 100%?  When he is, the offense can put up points rather quickly, but the Bills D led the league is not allowing big (more than 30 yards) plays.  When he’s not playing, the offense is average at best.  The Oilers D can be exploited, but can Bills find a way to do that?

While the Texans are favored due to the home field advantage, my stats guys tell me this will be an upset that puts the other playoff teams on notice.  The Bills first playoff win in 25 years…

Buffalo 26, Houston 17

#6 Tennessee Titans (9-7) @ #3 New England Patriots (12-4)
OK, so when was the last time the Patriots had to play in the Wild Card Round?  (Hint: it was 2010).  Seems like they always have a Bye…   Tennessee was the last team to make the playoffs and have been a resurgent team ever since promoting Ryan Tannehill to QB for last half of the season.  Titan RB Derrick Henry led the league in rushing and can easily rush for 200 yards in any given game.  The Titans also sport one of the best defensive backfields in the league, so added pressure will be put on Patriots QB Brady (he is SO over-the-hill, right??).

Meanwhile in the land of Patriots-gate, several chinks in the championship armor have surfaced this season.  12-4?  How despicable!  No Gronk, a poor rushing game, a variety of WR’s with average performances (except for the always-present Edelman), and woeful kickers after their star went on IR.  No way these guys can win a playoff game, right?  All this in spite of having the best D in the league this season.

I know a lot of folks are getting a little tired of New England in the playoffs, but you’ll need to wait at least another week.  Look for at least 4 missed FG’s in this one.

New England 29, Tennessee 16

#6 Minnesota Vikings (10-6) @ #3 New Orleans Saints (13-3)
Day 2 of the weekend begins with the Saints trying to forget their disappointing exit from the playoffs (and Super Bowl) the last 2 seasons.  The Vikings haven’t won a road playoff game since the 20th century (was Fran Tarkenton the QB?).  The Viking offense is starting get back to healthy, but it may not be enough to play catch up to the Saints.  QB Kirk Cousins has had huge games, but noticeably falters in prime time and the spotlight.  That will have to change if Minnesota plans to move on.  Their once vaunted D looks more like swiss cheese, so Saints QB Drew may put up 5 or 6 TD passes in a Brees (think 28-0 at half).

So, Saints WR Michael Thomas caught a record 150 passes this year and was targeted more than 120 times ahead of the Saints #2 WR (whomever that is).  Get used to the Brees to Thomas connection for at least 15 catches and a pair of TD’s.   Who cares how good or bad your D is if you put up 46 points, right?  Well, they did that late in the season and ended losing to the 49ers – at home.

Look for no missed FG’s in this one and let “The Saints go marching on”

New Orleans 31, Minnesota 27

#5 Seattle Seahawks (11-5) @ #4 Philadelphia Eagles (9-7)
We had an upset at the start of the weekend, so we might as well finish the weekend with another.  The Seahawks have not looked very impressive over the last several weeks and could have should have outright won a Bye this weekend.  The Eagles won their division by the process of elimination (and winning their last 4 games) – they were the best of a horrible group of 4 teams.

Seahawk QB Russell Wilson has been playing at an MVP-level this season, in spite of losing all known RB’s on the roster.  Hence, Beast Mode II.  The Seahawk D will need to step it up and put more pressure on Eagle QB Carson Wentz if they want to play next weekend.

Meanwhile, the Eagles starting roster looks more like the pre-season than the post-season roster, with all the injuries.  Every starting WR from earlier in the season is on IR and star TE Zach Ertz is at full health, with the “minor” exception of a bad back, lacerated kidney and ankle problems.

The underdog Eagles will find a way to play next weekend, in spite of the injuries.  Beast Mode will turn into Bust Mode for Seattle, unfortunately.

Philadelphia 20, Seattle 17

All the best to the Participants as they grapple to win the trophy from 7-time winner, HenricoFiveOh.  I’ll have my usual post-game wrap-up report to everyone early next week.  Until then, get those chores done in time for the 4:30 game on Saturday, kick back in your favorite chair, have a cold beverage (or 2…) and enjoy the games!

THE Commish

Participants,

Yes, you read the headline right.  Sadly, Ben the Butler has not fully recovered from last year’s absence to a point where he feels worthy of making a run to capture his 1st Hewes Super Bowl Trophy.  Several surgeries and slower than anticipated rehabs have hindered his ability to be at 100%, so he has opted to sit out a 2nd consecutive year.

An excerpt from his email to me 2 days ago reads: “…my personal recovery is incomplete at this time.  I know that if I say I’ll do it (i.e., participate in the trophy competition) I’ll end up unable to perform at the max level required based on the significant competition, so I’d like to come back when I’ll be able to devote 100% to my winning strategy and enjoy it together with you guys (i.e., win my 1st trophy!).  I’ll certainly miss it, but I know it’s not something I can take on this year.”

Ben the Butler will certainly be missed.  His career has been unfortunately marked by season-ending injuries and this will be his 3rd inactive season in 12 years, since joining in 2007.

Moving on to another matter at hand — the playoffs!  The 12 teams have been finalized and the WildCard games begin this Saturday afternoon, with the Buffalo Bills in Houston.  Will current trophy holder Henrico FiveOh be dressed in Bills logo wear from head to toe and choose his beloved Bills to move on the next round?  There are a few other Bills fans that may be making game picks with their hearts…  Plus, Greg the Great has his beloved Seahawks in a WildCard game, so look out for his game pick!  Pete the Terp gets a week off as his Ravens rest up for the Divisional games.  Suppose they play the Bills?  JTB, as has been the case in recent years, will not have the struggle of whether or not to pick his beloved Browns this weekend.  Will that free up his mind as he goes for his 2nd trophy in 3 years?  I have also heard rumblings that Comeback Kid wants to pencil in the Bills for the Super Bowl Bonus Pick before the playoffs even start!  Is this a new level of madness in Western New York?

Those questions and more will be answered in my upcoming analysis and predictions for the 4 weekend games.  Our analytics team has been running models since the end of the wild 49ers – Seahawks game that concluded the regular season last night.  It’s looking like simulations on steroids when I peeked in earlier today to see how they are doing.

Until then, I am

THE Commish